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Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
NASDAQ:ODFL
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Old Dominion Freight
(NASDAQ:ODFL)
68Neutral
Positive Factors
Freight Rebound Potential
The company is poised to benefit from a freight rebound with 30% excess capacity.
Market Positioning
Service remained best-in-class and the company believes they are well positioned to win share over the long term.
Operational Efficiency
Old Dominion's operating ratio slightly exceeded targets, showing operational efficiency despite challenges.
Negative Factors
Insurance Costs
Insurance costs were elevated, potentially impacting financial outcomes negatively.
Revenue and Earnings Decline
Revenue and earnings decreased again this quarter, and January tonnage growth is trending near normal seasonal patterns, indicating a cautious outlook.
Revenue Performance
Revenue guidance for 1Q of $1.34B to $1.38B is below the $1.4B estimate.
Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$32.32B
Dividend Yield0.7%
Average Volume (3M)1.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.8
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue Growth-0.88%
EPS Growth-2.79%
CountryUS
Employees21,895
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength63
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.48
Shares Outstanding212,545,070
10 Day Avg. Volume1,649,355
30 Day Avg. Volume1,971,458
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio17.89
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)6.04
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)21.90
P/FCF Ratio21.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$191.14Price Target Upside26.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering15
Old Dominion Freight Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in the United States and North America. It provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services, including expedited transportation. The company also offers various value-added services, such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting. As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated 10,403 tractors, 27,917 linehaul trailers, and 13,303 pickup and delivery trailers; 3 fleet maintenance centers; and 251 service centers. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina.
How the Company Makes MoneyOld Dominion Freight Line makes money primarily through its core LTL services, where it consolidates freight from multiple customers into a single shipment, optimizing the cargo load to improve efficiency and reduce costs. This model allows ODFL to charge customers based on the weight and volume of their shipments rather than requiring full truckloads. Additional revenue streams include value-added services such as expedited delivery options, global freight forwarding, and supply chain consulting. ODFL's advanced technology and strategic investments in infrastructure enhance its operational effectiveness, contributing to its profitability. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with other logistics providers to expand its service reach and capabilities.
Old Dominion Freight Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Old Dominion Freight demonstrates strong financial health, particularly in its profitability and balance sheet stability. While there are concerns about recent revenue reporting, the company shows effective cost management and maintains a solid equity position. Cash flow generation is strong, though variability suggests monitoring is needed. Overall, the company is well-positioned in the transportation industry, yet careful attention to revenue trends is necessary.Income Statement
The company's revenue has shown a fluctuating pattern, with a notable decline in the latest period due to reported zero revenue. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have remained strong, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin is favorable, highlighting profitability. However, the recent revenue decrease poses a potential risk.80
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a strong equity base with a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating financial stability. The company maintains a healthy equity ratio, suggesting a solid foundation and limited leverage risk. This stability is a strong point for long-term growth and resilience in the transportation industry.85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is robust, supporting the company's liquidity position. However, the free cash flow has seen fluctuations, with recent growth being positive. The cash flow to net income ratios indicate strong cash generation relative to profits, but variability in free cash flow growth presents some uncertainty.75
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 5.81B | 5.87B | 6.26B | 5.26B | 4.02B | Gross Profit |
| 2.02B | 2.07B | 2.26B | 1.78B | 1.23B | EBIT |
| 1.54B | 1.64B | 1.84B | 1.39B | 906.88M | EBITDA |
| 1.90B | 1.97B | 2.12B | 1.65B | 1.17B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 1.19B | 1.24B | 1.38B | 1.03B | 672.68M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 108.68M | 433.80M | 235.67M | 235.67M | 717.00M | Total Assets |
| 5.49B | 5.51B | 4.84B | 4.84B | 4.82B | Total Debt |
| 59.99M | 200.38M | 99.96M | 99.96M | 99.95M | Net Debt |
| -48.69M | -233.42M | -86.35M | -86.35M | -362.62M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.25B | 1.25B | 1.19B | 1.19B | 1.14B | Stockholders Equity |
| 4.24B | 4.26B | 3.65B | 3.65B | 3.68B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 887.97M | 811.83M | 916.43M | 662.53M | 707.94M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 1.66B | 1.57B | 1.69B | 1.21B | 933.02M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -751.19M | -659.82M | -547.47M | -455.29M | -551.66M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -1.23B | -661.83M | -1.42B | -696.18M | -383.50M |
Old Dominion Freight Technical Analysis
Negative
151.41
Price Trends
178.56
Negative
188.91
Negative
191.62
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.07
Negative
43.66
Neutral
58.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ODFL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 151.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 163.87, below the 50-day MA of 178.56, and below the 200-day MA of 191.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ODFL.
Old Dominion Freight Risk Analysis
Old Dominion Freight disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old Dominion Freight reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Old Dominion Freight Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $32.32B | 27.75 | 27.90% | 0.70% | -0.88% | -2.79% | |
67 Neutral | $8.59B | 24.08 | 17.03% | ― | 11.37% | 1.82% | |
63 Neutral | $1.47B | 8.74 | 13.56% | 0.75% | -5.61% | 40.21% | |
62 Neutral | $7.24B | 12.39 | 3.08% | 3.39% | 3.63% | -14.35% | |
61 Neutral | $6.31B | 53.74 | 1.66% | 1.69% | 3.76% | -46.10% | |
57 Neutral | $3.80B | 32.60 | 3.94% | 1.75% | -3.79% | -50.29% | |
54 Neutral | $1.73B | 51.07 | 2.29% | 2.01% | -7.71% | -69.05% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight
151.41
-72.02
-32.23%
KNX
Knight Transportation
39.30
-13.15
-25.07%
SAIA
Saia
325.31
-272.69
-45.60%
WERN
Werner Enterprises
27.28
-10.22
-27.25%
ARCB
ArcBest
60.80
-89.64
-59.59%
SNDR
Schneider National
21.27
-1.04
-4.66%
Old Dominion Freight Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 5, 2025 | % Change Since: -17.43% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted Old Dominion's strong operational performance and strategic investments despite facing revenue and volume declines due to economic softness. The company maintained high service quality and continued investing in network expansion, but financial metrics like revenue, earnings per share, and operating ratio experienced negative impacts.Highlights
Strong On-Time Service and Low Cargo Claims
Old Dominion reported a 99% on-time service rate and a cargo claims ratio below 0.1%, indicating superior operational efficiency and service quality.
Continued Investment Despite Economic Challenges
The company invested $771 million in capital expenditures in 2024, including $664 million over two years for service center network expansion, showing commitment to long-term growth.
Increased Cash Dividends
The board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.28 per share for the first quarter of 2025, a 7.7% increase compared to Q1 2024.
Improvement in Industrial Business
Fourth quarter saw industrial business outperform retail, with better revenue performance than the overall company, indicating potential recovery in industrial demand.
Lowlights
Revenue and Volume Decline
Revenue decreased by 7.3% to $1.39 billion, with a decrease in LTL revenue per hundredweight by 8.2% and a 7.1% decline in LTL tons per day in January.
Decreased Earnings Per Share
Earnings per diluted share decreased by 16.3% to $1.23 compared to the same period a year ago, driven by lower volume and economic softness.
Increased Operating Ratio
The operating ratio increased 410 basis points to 75.9%, impacted by decreased revenue and higher operating expenses.
Weather Impact on Operations
Bad winter weather conditions affected operations, particularly in January, contributing to a decrease in tonnage.
Company Guidance
During the fourth quarter of 2024, Old Dominion Freight Line reported a revenue of $1.39 billion, a 7.3% decrease from the prior year, primarily due to an 8.2% decrease in LTL revenue per hundredweight. Despite this decline, the company maintained a consistent market share and achieved a 99% on-time service rate with a cargo claims ratio below 0.1%. The operating ratio increased by 410 basis points to 75.9%, influenced by decreased revenue, which had a deleveraging effect on operating expenses. Capital expenditures totaled $771 million for the year, supporting the expansion of the service center network, while cash flow from operations reached $1.7 billion. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2025, Old Dominion anticipates the operating ratio to be flat to up 50 basis points compared to the fourth quarter, aided by expected improvements in insurance expense as a percentage of revenue. The company remains cautiously optimistic, poised to leverage its strategic investments and operational efficiency in anticipation of a potential uptick in demand.Old Dominion Freight Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Old Dominion Freight Reports Revenue Decline in February
Neutral
Mar 4, 2025
On March 4, 2025, Old Dominion Freight Line reported a 5.0% decrease in revenue per day for February 2025 compared to the previous year, attributed to a 7.1% decline in LTL tons per day. This was partly offset by an increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. The company cited continued softness in the domestic economy and lower fuel prices as factors affecting their yields. Despite the drop in revenue and volumes, demand for their services remains strong, and the company remains optimistic about future growth, focusing on delivering superior service and managing incremental growth effectively.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.