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Origin Bancorp (OBK)
NYSE:OBK

Origin Bancorp (OBK) AI Stock Analysis

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Origin Bancorp

(NYSE:OBK)

67Neutral
Origin Bancorp's overall score of 67 reflects a balanced view of strengths and challenges. The financial performance is bolstered by strong cash flow and revenue growth but offset by high liabilities and profitability concerns. Technical analysis indicates caution with downward momentum. Valuation metrics show moderate market expectations, while the earnings call suggests strategic initiatives for future growth amidst current portfolio challenges.

Origin Bancorp (OBK) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Origin Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOrigin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) is a financial holding company headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana. It operates through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Origin Bank, which provides a broad range of consumer, commercial, and wealth management financial services. The bank offers traditional banking products such as checking and savings accounts, personal and business loans, mortgages, and Treasury management services with a focus on personalized customer service and community-oriented banking solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyOrigin Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investment securities, as well as non-interest income from fees and service charges. Interest income is derived from the interest charged on consumer and commercial loans, mortgages, and other credit products. Non-interest income includes fees from services like wealth management, deposit account maintenance, and transaction processing. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and community-based initiatives that enhance its market presence and customer base. Origin Bancorp is dedicated to building strong relationships with clients, which contributes to its stable revenue streams.

Origin Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Origin Bancorp shows a mixed financial performance. The income statement highlights revenue growth in 2024 but faces profitability challenges. The balance sheet reflects improved leverage but high liabilities pose a risk. Cash flow performance is strong, indicating effective cash generation and management.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Origin Bancorp shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The Gross Profit Margin remains robust at 100%, which is typical for banking due to the nature of revenue recognition. However, the Net Profit Margin has seen fluctuations, with a decrease from 2022 to 2024, indicating profitability challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a significant increase in 2024 but slight declines in prior years. The EBIT Margin has improved significantly in 2024, signaling better operational efficiency despite previous volatility.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The company's balance sheet reflects a stable equity base with a positive Equity Ratio, enhancing financial stability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio has improved over time, showing reduced financial leverage. However, the total liabilities remain high relative to assets, which poses a risk of financial strain. The Return on Equity has been declining, which might concern investors regarding the company's ability to generate returns on shareholder investments.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
The cash flow statement indicates strong performance with consistent positive Operating Cash Flow, showcasing the company's ability to generate cash from operations effectively. The Free Cash Flow has seen significant improvement in 2024, reflecting better cash management and operational efficiency. However, Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio shows variability, suggesting inconsistencies in cash conversion against net income.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
564.59M341.14M332.55M278.44M250.13M
Gross Profit
564.59M581.32M332.55M278.44M250.13M
EBIT
558.43M139.67M107.44M132.43M44.35M
EBITDA
0.000.00119.75M139.26M45.76M
Net Income Common Stockholders
76.49M83.80M87.72M108.55M36.36M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
204.63M279.58M2.00B2.21B1.38B
Total Assets
9.68B9.72B9.69B7.86B7.63B
Total Debt
166.14M270.75M841.00M467.22M1.14B
Net Debt
-132.99M-9.69M482.02M-238.40M764.58M
Total Liabilities
8.53B8.66B8.74B467.22M6.98B
Stockholders Equity
1.15B1.06B949.94M730.21M647.15M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
25.00M103.09M137.18M166.47M-6.31M
Operating Cash Flow
25.00M129.92M145.65M171.49M887.00K
Investing Cash Flow
-13.36M-130.03M-455.99M12.85M-2.12B
Financing Cash Flow
-51.47M-78.42M-36.31M144.07M2.20B

Origin Bancorp Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price29.56
Price Trends
50DMA
36.51
Negative
100DMA
35.62
Negative
200DMA
33.87
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.65
Positive
RSI
35.72
Neutral
STOCH
17.23
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.87, below the 50-day MA of 36.51, and below the 200-day MA of 33.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OBK.

Origin Bancorp Risk Analysis

Origin Bancorp disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Origin Bancorp reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Origin Bancorp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$1.06B8.2417.92%3.59%8.03%-8.05%
75
Outperform
$1.00B8.5210.77%5.68%17.88%-3.25%
73
Outperform
$920.52M9.545.95%5.09%7.54%-2.82%
BFBFC
72
Outperform
$1.02B15.6610.36%1.68%19.72%-10.57%
OBOBK
67
Neutral
$975.13M12.736.93%1.92%5.48%-9.46%
64
Neutral
$957.51M12.087.88%13.26%-33.68%
64
Neutral
$13.46B9.449.34%4.72%16.14%-8.80%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OBK
Origin Bancorp
29.56
1.40
4.97%
OCFC
Oceanfirst Financial
14.95
0.85
6.03%
PEBO
Peoples Bancorp
27.01
0.62
2.35%
PFBC
Preferred Bank
76.14
5.22
7.36%
BFC
Bank First National
99.34
20.26
25.62%
FSUN
FirstSun Capital Bancorp
32.53
-2.67
-7.59%

Origin Bancorp Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Jan 22, 2025 | % Change Since: -16.09% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted the implementation of the Optimize Origin strategy aimed at improving financial performance and operational efficiency. Positive credit metrics and deposit growth were notable achievements. However, challenges in the loan portfolio and significant notable items impacting earnings presented hurdles. Overall, the sentiment is cautiously optimistic with a focus on future growth and optimization.
Highlights
Optimize Origin Strategy Implementation
Origin Bancorp has implemented a strategy called 'Optimize Origin' focused on productivity, delivery, efficiency, balance sheet optimization, and culture. Expected to drive an ROA run rate of 1% or greater by the end of 2025.
Strategic Branch Closures and Cost Savings
Closed 8 banking centers leading to a run rate of approximately $4.6 million in annual expense reduction.
Banker Profitability and Portfolio Optimization
Significant repositioning of production teams and loan portfolios, with an expected annual expense reduction of approximately $6.7 million.
Positive Credit Metrics
Net recovery for the quarter driven by actual recoveries of $2.6 million. Net charge-offs at 0.18% year-to-date. No past dues, classifieds, nonperforming loans, or charge-offs in nonowner-occupied CRE office sector.
Deposit Growth and Management
Noninterest-bearing deposits grew for the second consecutive quarter. Deposits excluding brokered grew 1.1% linked quarter. Brokered deposits declined 81%.
Lowlights
Loan Portfolio Challenges
Loans excluding mortgage warehouse were down 3.2% linked quarter due to strategic focus on client selection and efforts to stay under $10 billion in assets.
Increase in Classified and Nonperforming Loans
Classified loans increased $11 million to 1.57% of loans, and nonperforming loans increased $11 million for the quarter to 0.99%.
Significant Notable Items Impacted Earnings
Combined financial impact of notable items during the quarter equated to a net expense of $14.7 million, equivalent to $0.37 in EPS pressure.
Company Guidance
During the fourth quarter earnings call for Origin Bancorp, Inc., the company provided guidance highlighting several key metrics and strategic initiatives aimed at optimizing their financial performance. The "Optimize Origin" initiative is expected to drive an ROA run rate of 1% or greater by the fourth quarter of 2025, targeting the top quartile of peers. Actions already taken are projected to improve earnings by approximately $21 million annually on a pretax, pre-provision basis. The plan includes branch closures, resulting in an annual expense reduction of $4.6 million, and optimizing banker profitability, projected to save $6.7 million annually. Additionally, the company aims for mid- to high single-digit loan growth in 2025, leveraging a deposit growth strategy while maintaining strong credit metrics, such as a net charge-off rate of 0.18% year-to-date. The focus on balance sheet optimization and culture is supported by a forthcoming third-party benchmarking study, anticipated to reveal further efficiency opportunities.

Origin Bancorp Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Origin Bancorp to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Apr 10, 2025

On April 10, 2025, Origin Bancorp, Inc. announced it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results after market close on April 23, 2025, followed by an investor conference call on April 24, 2025. The call, hosted by key executives, will discuss the company’s financial performance and operations, potentially impacting stakeholders’ insights into the company’s market positioning and future strategies.

Spark’s Take on OBK Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, OBK is a Neutral.

Origin Bancorp’s overall score of 67 reflects a balanced view of strengths and challenges. The financial performance is bolstered by strong cash flow and revenue growth but offset by high liabilities and profitability concerns. Technical analysis indicates caution with downward momentum. Valuation metrics show moderate market expectations, while the earnings call suggests strategic initiatives for future growth amidst current portfolio challenges.

To see Spark’s full report on OBK stock, click here.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Origin Bancorp Announces Board Reduction for 2025
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

On March 3, 2025, Origin Bancorp, Inc. announced that five members of its Board of Directors will not stand for reelection at the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, reducing the Board size from 16 to 11 directors. This strategic move aligns with governance best practices and aims to create a more efficient Board to support the company’s strategy and future growth. The decision is not due to any disagreements and reflects the Board’s commitment to optimal governance as recommended by its Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.