NVR (NVR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.00B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 27.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: 10.81%
• EPS Growth: 10.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 507.53
• Shares Outstanding: 2,969,005
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 23,500
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 27,810
• PEG Ratio: 1.37
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.04
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 8.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $8,923.33
• Price Target Upside: 26.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

NVR's strong financial performance is a key positive factor, supported by solid profitability and effective cash flow management. However, the technical analysis reveals significant bearish momentum, which may weigh on the stock's near-term performance. The valuation indicates a fair market price, though the lack of a dividend yield could deter income-focused investors.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

NVR's 4Q EPS significantly exceeded both the analysts' forecast and consensus estimates.

Market Position

NVR remains in a class by itself with its capital light model offering upside compared to peers.

Stock Buyback

NVR repurchased $564M in shares during 4Q, bettering the $400M expectation.

Negative Factors

Margin Pressure

NVR's spot land approach with a 24.9% gross margin indicates future margin pressure.

Market Conditions

Demand was described as 'a little choppy' due to the impact of increased mortgage rates on affordability and buyer confidence.

Sales Decline

4Q orders fell 8% year-over-year, with sales pace and average community count both below expectations.

NVR Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NVR, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking. It engages in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes names. The company markets its Ryan Homes products to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes products to move-up and luxury buyers. It also provides various mortgage related services to its homebuilding customers, as well as brokers title insurance; performs title searches in connection with mortgage loan closings; and sells mortgage loans to investors in the secondary markets on a servicing released basis. The company primarily serves in Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, and Washington, D.C. NVR, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

NVR makes money primarily through its homebuilding operations, which involve the construction and sale of residential properties. Revenue is generated from the sale of homes, with prices varying based on location, size, and amenities. The company also earns income from its mortgage banking services, which provide financing to homebuyers purchasing NVR homes. This division generates revenue through origination fees, interest income, and the sale of loans to investors in the secondary mortgage market. NVR benefits from its streamlined, cost-efficient building processes and a focus on high-demand markets, which contribute to its profitability.

NVR Financial Statement Overview

Summary

NVR demonstrates robust financial health with strong profitability, a solid balance sheet, and effective cash flow management. Despite some fluctuations in free cash flow, the company's overall financial performance remains strong and stable, supported by consistent net profit margins and a strong revenue growth trend.

Income Statement

The company shows strong profitability with a consistent net profit margin of around 16.3% to 17.0% over recent years. Gross profit margins are solid, ranging from 21.3% to 27.3%, indicating effective cost management. Despite a dip in revenue growth in 2023, the revenue trend is generally positive, with strong EBIT and EBITDA margins supporting profitability.

Balance Sheet

NVR maintains a solid balance sheet characterized by increasing stockholders' equity and a consistently low debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio remains healthy, indicating a strong capital structure. The company exhibits a robust return on equity, reflecting efficient use of equity to generate profits.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals strong operating cash flow relative to net income, suggesting effective cash generation from operations. Although free cash flow has fluctuated, it remains substantial, indicating good liquidity. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, supporting operational sustainability.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
10.54B	9.53B	10.54B	8.96B	7.55B
	Gross Profit
2.69B	2.48B	2.88B	2.20B	1.61B
	EBIT
1.99B	1.82B	2.17B	1.47B	977.42M
	EBITDA
2.16B	1.97B	2.31B	1.66B	1.17B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.68B	1.59B	1.73B	1.24B	901.25M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.61B	3.16B	2.52B	2.57B	2.78B
	Total Assets
6.38B	6.60B	5.66B	5.83B	5.78B
	Total Debt
1.02B	1.01B	1.01B	1.59B	1.59B
	Net Debt
-1.59B	-2.15B	-1.52B	-982.65M	-1.19B
	Total Liabilities
2.17B	2.24B	2.15B	2.83B	2.67B
	Stockholders Equity
4.21B	4.36B	3.51B	3.00B	3.10B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.35B	1.47B	1.85B	1.22B	909.15M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.37B	1.50B	1.87B	1.24B	925.27M
	Investing Cash Flow
-26.55M	-24.10M	-27.43M	-18.18M	-3.93M
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.90B	-832.97M	-1.91B	-1.40B	727.64M

NVR Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7046.73
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7046.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7252.20, below the 50-day MA of 7405.11, and below the 200-day MA of 8436.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -59.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVR.

NVR Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DHI	78 Outperform	$40.29B	9.04	19.35%	1.09%	2.12%	1.63%
PHM	74 Outperform	$20.41B	6.89	27.40%	0.83%	11.74%	25.66%
TMHC	73 Outperform	$6.05B	6.86	15.80%	―	10.11%	19.06%
TOL	69 Neutral	$10.03B	6.94	20.38%	0.91%	5.86%	12.20%
LEN	68 Neutral	$29.17B	8.08	14.97%	1.80%	2.03%	-3.80%
NVR	66 Neutral	$22.00B	13.88	39.23%	―	10.81%	10.16%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$11.18B	10.04	-1.58%	3.96%	1.31%	-16.97%