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National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)
NYSE:NFG
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National Fuel Gas Company
(NYSE:NFG)
65Neutral
Positive Factors
Business Performance
The E&P business outperformed expectations and the impact from the NY utility rate case has started to materialize.
Earnings
The company had adj EPS come in at $1.66 that beat Street Adj EPS estimates of $1.53.
Negative Factors
Natural Gas Leverage
Given the company’s relatively lower leverage to natural gas prices, it is seen as a disadvantage when compared to similar natural gas companies.
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.73B
Dividend Yield2.75%
Average Volume (3M)699.32K
Price to Earnings (P/E)82.8
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth-10.64%
EPS Growth-102.62%
CountryUS
Employees2,311
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength64
IndustryFossil Fuels
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.14
Shares Outstanding90,552,170
10 Day Avg. Volume705,896
30 Day Avg. Volume699,315
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)3.41
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)7.60
P/FCF Ratio6.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$77.40Price Target Upside4.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
National Fuel Gas Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNational Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is a diversified energy company that operates in the United States, primarily in the fields of natural gas and oil exploration, production, and distribution. Headquartered in Williamsville, New York, NFG is involved in multiple sectors of the energy industry, including exploration and production, pipeline and storage, and utility operations. The company's core services and products include natural gas extraction and production, the operation of an extensive pipeline network for gas transportation and storage, and the provision of natural gas utility services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyNational Fuel Gas Company makes money through several key revenue streams, primarily centered around its operations in the natural gas sector. The company's exploration and production segment generates revenue by extracting and selling natural gas and oil. The pipeline and storage segment earns income from transporting and storing natural gas, typically charging fees for the use of its extensive pipeline network and storage facilities. Additionally, NFG's utility segment contributes to revenue by distributing natural gas to end-users, including residential, commercial, and industrial customers, who are billed for their consumption. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships and contracts that enhance its operational capabilities and expand its market reach, contributing further to its earnings.
National Fuel Gas Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
National Fuel Gas Company shows operational strength with stable margins and effective cash flow management, though it faces challenges with revenue consistency and high leverage. The TTM period highlights concerns about profitability and equity dependence, suggesting the need for careful strategic planning to enhance financial stability and growth.Income Statement
The company demonstrated strong gross profit margins, though net income has been volatile. The recent TTM data shows negative net income, indicating potential challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a noticeable decline in the latest TTM period compared to prior years. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, suggesting operational efficiency despite revenue fluctuations.68
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage which poses a risk in volatile markets. The equity ratio has decreased, showing reduced equity financing. However, historical ROE has been strong, reflecting effective use of equity. The latest TTM balance sheet shows a very low stockholders' equity, raising concerns about financial stability.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals strong operating cash flow relative to net income, highlighting good cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow has been positive yet fluctuating, with recent growth in free cash flow suggesting improved capital management. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates efficient conversion of income into cash.72
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | Sep 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 1.89B | 1.94B | 2.17B | 2.19B | 1.74B | 1.55B | Gross Profit |
| 762.88M | 817.70M | 847.85M | 902.96M | 759.72M | 567.70M | EBIT |
| 214.15M | 209.72M | 755.15M | 814.52M | 639.92M | 461.48M | EBITDA |
| 557.61M | 682.98M | 1.18B | 1.16B | 976.50M | 760.73M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -10.52M | 77.51M | 476.87M | 566.02M | 363.65M | -123.77M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 220.09M | 38.22M | 55.45M | 46.05M | 31.53M | 20.54M | Total Assets |
| 8.30B | 8.32B | 8.28B | 7.90B | 7.46B | 6.96B | Total Debt |
| 109.30M | 2.78B | 2.67B | 2.69B | 2.79B | 2.66B | Net Debt |
| -110.79M | 2.74B | 2.62B | 2.65B | 2.76B | 2.64B | Total Liabilities |
| 5.55B | 5.47B | 5.32B | 5.82B | 5.68B | 4.99B | Stockholders Equity |
| 5.86M | 2.85B | 2.96B | 2.08B | 1.79B | 1.97B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 134.72M | 134.72M | 227.21M | 695.00K | 39.82M | -481.60M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 1.07B | 1.07B | 1.24B | 812.52M | 791.55M | 740.81M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -933.90M | -933.90M | -1.11B | -518.70M | -633.22M | -1.22B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -149.28M | -149.28M | -207.00M | -276.24M | -58.74M | 476.09M |
National Fuel Gas Company Technical Analysis
Positive
74.30
Price Trends
69.37
Positive
65.20
Positive
61.00
Positive
Market Momentum
1.31
Positive
61.68
Neutral
37.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 74.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.58, above the 50-day MA of 69.37, and above the 200-day MA of 61.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NFG.
National Fuel Gas Company Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $23.80B | 21.25 | 9.00% | 2.25% | 5.90% | 11.85% | |
76 Outperform | $6.98B | 12.98 | 12.22% | 4.54% | -14.01% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $4.48B | 19.10 | 7.59% | 3.55% | -12.16% | -5.73% | |
70 Outperform | $5.23B | 26.32 | 5.84% | 3.41% | -5.92% | 29.47% | |
66 Neutral | $4.77B | 14.39 | 15.15% | 3.64% | 9.18% | 36.67% | |
65 Neutral | $6.73B | 82.82 | -0.36% | 2.75% | -10.64% | -102.62% | |
57 Neutral | $8.40B | 5.59 | -5.99% | 7.42% | -0.03% | -68.66% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
74.19
24.44
49.13%
ATO
Atmos Energy
148.66
35.01
30.81%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
48.48
7.31
17.76%
SWX
Southwest Gas
71.87
0.85
1.20%
UGI
UGI
32.38
8.35
34.75%
OGS
ONE Gas
73.53
12.81
21.10%
National Fuel Gas Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Jan 29, 2025 | % Change Since: 8.53% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong operational performance and strategic hedging that mitigated the impact of low natural gas prices. Regulatory achievements and sustainability milestones were significant positives. However, lower natural gas prices and project impairments posed challenges for future earnings.Highlights
Strong Hedge Book Performance
National Fuel's strong hedge book delivered a $61 million gain during the quarter, largely mitigating the impact of low natural gas prices.
Production and Efficiency Gains
Seneca's production increased by 5% year-over-year, while capital expenditures decreased by 10%, demonstrating improved capital efficiency.
Regulatory Achievements
A 3-year settlement in New York rate case resulted in an $86 million annual revenue requirement increase phased over 3 years, addressing recovery of higher operating costs.
Sustainability Achievements
Seneca surpassed its 2030 methane intensity reduction goal of 40% and renewed its MIQ certification with an A grade.
Share Buyback and Dividend Program
Progress on a $200 million buyback authorization with 1.4 million shares repurchased at an average price of $57 per share.
Lowlights
Natural Gas Price Impact
Adjusted EPS guidance for fiscal 2025 was revised lower due to declining natural gas prices, impacting earnings forecasts.
Northern Access Project Impairment
A noncash impairment of $34 million was recorded for the Northern Access project, which is no longer being pursued.
Voluntary Curtailments
Seneca faced nearly 14 Bcf of voluntary price curtailments during fiscal '24, affecting overall production output.
Company Guidance
During the National Fuel Gas Company Q4 2024 earnings call, the executives provided guidance reflecting a mix of operational achievements and financial adjustments. The company reported fourth-quarter adjusted operating results of $0.77 per share, with natural gas prices posing a challenge yet mitigated by a $61 million gain from hedging activities. Looking ahead, the company forecasted fiscal 2025 adjusted operating results in the range of $5.50 to $6.00 per share, assuming a NYMEX price of $2.80 per MMBtu. Notable metrics included Seneca's record production of 392 Bcfe, a 5% year-over-year increase, and an anticipated production guidance of 400 to 420 Bcfe for fiscal 2025. Additionally, the company highlighted a $56 million annual rate increase from a Supply Corporation rate settlement and a total annual revenue requirement increase of $86 million phased over three years from a new utility rate case settlement. Capital efficiency improvements were also noted, with Seneca's fiscal 2025 capital guidance midpoint set $20 million lower than fiscal 2024, driven by operational efficiencies and project optimization.National Fuel Gas Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
National Fuel Gas Updates Investor Presentation with Risks
Neutral
Jan 29, 2025
On January 29, 2025, National Fuel Gas Company updated its Investor Presentation, which included non-GAAP financial measures. These measures are intended to provide investors with alternative methods for assessing the company’s operating results, cash flow, and liquidity, and for comparing its financial performance to other companies. The company highlighted various risk factors that could impact its future results, such as changes in natural gas prices, regulatory actions, economic conditions, and technological disruptions.
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
National Fuel Gas Unveils Executive Incentive Plans
Positive
Dec 11, 2024
National Fuel Gas Company announced long-term incentive grants of performance shares and restricted stock units to its executive officers, alongside short-term incentive opportunities for fiscal year 2025. The grants include performance shares with goals related to methane intensity, greenhouse gas emissions reductions, relative total return on capital, and total shareholder return, aiming to align executive compensation with the company’s environmental and financial performance targets. The initiatives reflect an emphasis on achieving sustainability and performance metrics, potentially influencing the company’s industry standing and shareholder value.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.