National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.76B
• Dividend Yield: 2.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 737.09K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 82.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: -10.64%
• EPS Growth: -102.62%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,311
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): -0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 90,552,170
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 804,408
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 737,092
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.60
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 8.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $83.25
• Price Target Upside: 8.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

National Fuel Gas Company demonstrates strong operational efficiency and cash flow management but faces challenges with high leverage and recent profitability issues. The stock's technical indicators suggest positive momentum, though valuation remains a concern with a negative P/E ratio. Recent corporate initiatives to align executive goals with sustainability and performance metrics add a positive strategic dimension.

Positive Factors

Earnings

The company had adjusted EPS come in at $1.66, beating Street estimates of $1.53.

Hedging Strategy

National Fuel Gas remains one of the most well-hedged companies among natural gas weighted E&Ps, providing some protection in the current commodity price environment.

Share Buyback

Despite weak natural gas prices, the company remains committed to its share buyback program, indicating confidence in its future performance.

Negative Factors

Natural Gas Pricing

The earnings per share guidance for 2025 has been lowered due to weaker natural gas pricing.

Operational Leverage

Given the company’s relatively lower leverage to natural gas prices, it is seen as a disadvantage when compared to similar natural gas companies.

Regulatory Risk

Longer term, there are risks of increasing capital intensity and regulatory risk for the New York utility business.

National Fuel Gas Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is a diversified energy company that operates in the United States, primarily in the fields of natural gas and oil exploration, production, and distribution. Headquartered in Williamsville, New York, NFG is involved in multiple sectors of the energy industry, including exploration and production, pipeline and storage, and utility operations. The company's core services and products include natural gas extraction and production, the operation of an extensive pipeline network for gas transportation and storage, and the provision of natural gas utility services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.

How the Company Makes Money

National Fuel Gas Company makes money through several key revenue streams, primarily centered around its operations in the natural gas sector. The company's exploration and production segment generates revenue by extracting and selling natural gas and oil. The pipeline and storage segment earns income from transporting and storing natural gas, typically charging fees for the use of its extensive pipeline network and storage facilities. Additionally, NFG's utility segment contributes to revenue by distributing natural gas to end-users, including residential, commercial, and industrial customers, who are billed for their consumption. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships and contracts that enhance its operational capabilities and expand its market reach, contributing further to its earnings.

National Fuel Gas Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Fuel Gas Company shows operational strength with stable margins and effective cash flow management, though it faces challenges with revenue consistency and high leverage. The TTM period highlights concerns about profitability and equity dependence, suggesting the need for careful strategic planning to enhance financial stability and growth.

Income Statement

The company demonstrated strong gross profit margins, though net income has been volatile. The recent TTM data shows negative net income, indicating potential challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a noticeable decline in the latest TTM period compared to prior years. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, suggesting operational efficiency despite revenue fluctuations.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage which poses a risk in volatile markets. The equity ratio has decreased, showing reduced equity financing. However, historical ROE has been strong, reflecting effective use of equity. The latest TTM balance sheet shows a very low stockholders' equity, raising concerns about financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals strong operating cash flow relative to net income, highlighting good cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow has been positive yet fluctuating, with recent growth in free cash flow suggesting improved capital management. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates efficient conversion of income into cash.

Breakdown
TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.89B	1.94B	2.17B	2.19B	1.74B	1.55B
	Gross Profit
762.88M	817.70M	847.85M	902.96M	759.72M	567.70M
	EBIT
214.15M	209.72M	755.15M	814.52M	639.92M	461.48M
	EBITDA
557.61M	682.98M	1.18B	1.16B	976.50M	760.73M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-10.52M	77.51M	476.87M	566.02M	363.65M	-123.77M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
426.80M	38.22M	55.45M	46.05M	31.53M	20.54M
	Total Assets
4.99B	8.32B	8.28B	7.90B	7.46B	6.96B
	Total Debt
1.25B	2.78B	2.67B	2.69B	2.79B	2.66B
	Net Debt
822.20M	2.74B	2.62B	2.65B	2.76B	2.64B
	Total Liabilities
3.28B	5.47B	5.32B	5.82B	5.68B	4.99B
	Stockholders Equity
1.71B	2.85B	2.96B	2.08B	1.79B	1.97B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
134.72M	134.72M	227.21M	695.00K	39.82M	-481.60M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.07B	1.07B	1.24B	812.52M	791.55M	740.81M
	Investing Cash Flow
-933.90M	-933.90M	-1.11B	-518.70M	-633.22M	-1.22B
	Financing Cash Flow
-149.28M	-149.28M	-207.00M	-276.24M	-58.74M	476.09M

National Fuel Gas Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 76.46
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 76.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 77.02, above the 50-day MA of 74.51, and above the 200-day MA of 63.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.78 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NFG.

National Fuel Gas Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EQNR	79 Outperform	$60.42B	7.51	19.39%	5.09%	-4.07%	-20.34%
E	77 Outperform	$38.66B	15.78	5.58%	5.72%	-5.16%	-41.74%
EC	77 Outperform	$18.08B	5.02	18.70%	19.09%	-1.24%	-16.75%
YPF	76 Outperform	$13.81B	5.01	22.65%	―	7.35%	―
TGS	72 Outperform	$4.90B	9.55	22.77%	―	27.62%	746.56%
NFG	65 Neutral	$6.76B	82.82	-0.36%	2.79%	-10.64%	-102.62%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.44B	4.21	-3.75%	6.64%	-0.07%	-64.77%

National Fuel Gas Company Corporate Events

National Fuel Gas Announces Leadership Transition

Donna L. DeCarolis, President of National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, announced her retirement effective July 1, 2025. This management change, disclosed in a press release dated April 3, 2025, marks a significant transition for the company as it prepares for leadership changes in its operations.

National Fuel Gas Updates Investor Presentation with Risks

On January 29, 2025, National Fuel Gas Company updated its Investor Presentation, which included non-GAAP financial measures. These measures are intended to provide investors with alternative methods for assessing the company’s operating results, cash flow, and liquidity, and for comparing its financial performance to other companies. The company highlighted various risk factors that could impact its future results, such as changes in natural gas prices, regulatory actions, economic conditions, and technological disruptions.