Moog (MOG.A) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.06B
• Dividend Yield: 0.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 203.23K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.20
• Revenue Growth: 7.22%
• EPS Growth: 22.61%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): 6.56
• Shares Outstanding: 28,350,334
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 209,090
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 203,231
• PEG Ratio: 1.08
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.51
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -10.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $221.00
• Price Target Upside: 34.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

Moog's strong financial performance, characterized by revenue growth and robust profitability, is a key strength. However, technical analysis indicates a lack of positive momentum, and valuation metrics suggest the stock may be overvalued, presenting potential risks. The absence of significant earnings call insights or corporate events focuses attention on financial and market indicators. Overall, Moog is well-positioned in the Aerospace & Defense sector, but investors should be cautious of potential valuation risks.

Positive Factors

Commercial Aircraft Alignment

Moog's Commercial Aircraft segment is now well aligned with Boeing/Airbus' OE production rates.

Defense and Space Demand

Moog's defense/space portfolio continues to see strong demand given the geopolitical backdrop.

Sales Growth

Fiscal 1Q25 sales rose 6% YOY to $910M, a 4% beat vs consensus.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Performance

FQ1's FCF burn was well below expectations, with every NWC item consuming cash.

Guidance and Market Reaction

A top/bottom line beat were offset by a FCF miss and light F2Q25 EPS guide which drove a 12.9% sell-off.

Sales and EPS Guidance

Soft FCF trends in FQ1 and the lack of a sales/EPS guide hike likely explain the stock's selloff.

Moog Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moog Inc. (MOG.A) is a global designer, manufacturer, and integrator of precision control components and systems. It operates in several sectors, including aerospace and defense, industrial systems, and medical devices. The company's core products and services focus on motion and fluid control systems, offering innovative solutions to clients across various high-tech industries.

How the Company Makes Money

Moog Inc. generates revenue through the sale of its precision control components and systems, which are utilized in various applications such as aircraft flight controls, industrial automation, and medical equipment. The company operates under multiple segments: Aircraft Controls, Space and Defense Controls, Industrial Systems, and Components. Each segment contributes to the overall revenue by delivering specialized products and services tailored to their respective markets. Moog's significant partnerships with aerospace and defense contractors, industrial manufacturers, and healthcare providers further bolster its earnings, as these collaborations often lead to long-term contracts and recurring revenue streams.

Moog Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moog's financial performance is characterized by strong revenue growth and robust profitability, supported by a solid balance sheet. The company demonstrates effective operational management with healthy profitability margins and a stable financial structure. However, cash flow management presents challenges, indicating a need for improvement in converting profits into cash. Overall, Moog exhibits a healthy financial position with opportunities to enhance cash flow conversion.

Income Statement

Moog has demonstrated strong revenue growth over recent years, with the TTM revenue increasing by 5.4% compared to the previous year. The company maintains healthy profitability margins, with a TTM gross profit margin of 26.9% and a net profit margin of 5.8%. Additionally, EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 10.8% and 11.9% respectively, indicating efficient operational management. These metrics are indicative of both stability and growth potential in the Aerospace & Defense sector.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid financial structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70, suggesting manageable leverage levels. Moog's return on equity stands at 11.7%, a respectable figure indicating effective utilization of shareholders' funds. The equity ratio of 43.3% highlights a balanced approach to asset financing. Although the debt level has increased, the company's equity base remains strong, mitigating potential risks.

Cash Flow

Moog's cash flow statement shows variability, with a decrease in free cash flow for the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.05, suggesting challenges in converting profits into cash. However, the previous annual free cash flow was positive, indicating potential for recovery. While there is room for improvement in cash flow management, the company has a history of positive cash generation.

Breakdown
TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.66B	3.61B	3.32B	3.04B	2.85B	2.88B
	Gross Profit
985.57M	996.92M	891.53M	820.80M	775.72M	743.70M
	EBIT
394.66M	389.26M	315.14M	261.57M	239.17M	92.85M
	EBITDA
454.81M	423.03M	402.47M	349.96M	329.32M	179.82M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
212.52M	207.22M	171.00M	155.18M	157.22M	9.21M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
112.42M	61.69M	68.96M	103.89M	99.60M	84.58M
	Total Assets
2.71B	4.09B	3.81B	3.43B	3.43B	3.23B
	Total Debt
764.72M	874.14M	863.09M	837.79M	903.72M	930.33M
	Net Debt
652.29M	812.45M	794.13M	733.89M	804.12M	845.75M
	Total Liabilities
1.59B	2.23B	2.17B	2.00B	2.03B	1.98B
	Stockholders Equity
1.12B	1.86B	1.64B	1.44B	1.40B	1.24B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-141.71M	46.33M	-37.35M	107.37M	164.49M	190.89M
	Operating Cash Flow
9.67M	202.34M	135.94M	246.80M	293.23M	279.18M
	Investing Cash Flow
-135.63M	-159.62M	-163.15M	-83.32M	-191.16M	-146.19M
	Financing Cash Flow
75.68M	-48.66M	-23.02M	-134.91M	-87.00M	-142.77M

Moog Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 164.22
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOG.A, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 164.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 170.25, below the 50-day MA of 174.53, and below the 200-day MA of 190.58, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOG.A.

Moog Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MOG.A	70 Neutral	$5.06B	24.38	12.07%	0.71%	7.22%	22.61%
VSEC	69 Neutral	$2.28B	65.03	4.55%	0.36%	16.48%	-70.34%
HXL	65 Neutral	$4.28B	33.46	8.14%	1.21%	6.31%	28.25%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$7.50B	12.89	3.19%	3.38%	3.64%	-14.27%
MRCY	61 Neutral	$2.67B	―	-6.10%	―	-1.21%	-4.63%
KTOS	59 Neutral	$4.88B	297.47	1.40%	―	9.57%	―
SPR	40 Underperform	$3.89B	―	81.63%	―	4.44%	-202.63%

Moog Corporate Events

Moog Announces Major Leadership Changes by 2025

Moog Inc. is set for significant leadership changes as Brian J. Lipke, a long-serving board director, plans to retire before the 2025 annual shareholders meeting after 21 years, and COO Mark Trabert announces his retirement effective December 31, 2024, after a 40-year tenure. Post-retirement, Moog’s Operating Group Presidents will report directly to CEO Pat Roche, marking a strategic shift in the company’s leadership structure.