Mattel (MAT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.12B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.43M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: -1.13%
• EPS Growth: 163.15%
• Country: US
• Employees: 34,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 1.59
• Shares Outstanding: 322,913,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,764,087
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,425,664
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.22
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 1.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $25.50
• Price Target Upside: 72.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

Mattel's overall score reflects its solid financial performance, strong profitability metrics, and promising valuation. The technical indicators suggest caution due to bearish trends, but the company's strategic initiatives in entertainment and games, along with effective cost management, provide a positive outlook. Challenges remain in specific product segments and potential tariff impacts.

Positive Factors

Earnings Guidance

Guidance for 2025 EPS of $1.66-$1.72 exceeded consensus of $1.58.

Sales Growth

The Hot Wheels and F1 collaboration is highlighted as a top sales driver in 2025.

Share Repurchase

MAT is executing well and plans $600M of share repurchase in 2025 on top of $400M in 2024.

Negative Factors

Earnings Outlook

The weaker earnings growth outlook seems to be largely driven by the inclusion of an anticipated impact of new US tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada imports.

Inventory Management

MAT's year-end retail inventory was flat Y/Y in dollars and in weeks, which was viewed as slightly too high.

Product Performance

Barbie continues to disappoint in the top-line performance, despite other brands like Hot Wheels performing well.

Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company operates through North America, International, and American Girl segments. It offers dolls and accessories, as well as content, gaming, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, Monster High, American Girl, Polly Pocket, Spirit, and Enchantimals brands; dolls and books under the American Girl brand name; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids of all ages, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Monster Trucks, Matchbox, CARS, and Mario Kart brand names; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising content, toys, live events, and other lifestyle products under the Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, Power wheels, and Fireman Sam brands. The company also provides action figures, building sets, and games under the Masters of the Universe, MEGA, UNO, Lightyear, Jurassic World, WWE, and Star Wars brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney, NBCUniversal, WWE, Microsoft, Nickelodeon, Warner Bros, and Sanrio. It sells its products directly to consumers through its catalog, website, and proprietary retail stores; retailers, including discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; and wholesalers, as well as through agents and distributors. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Mattel generates revenue primarily through the design, manufacture, and sale of toys and consumer products. Its revenue model is based on licensing its well-known brand names and characters, as well as direct sales of products through retailers and online channels. Mattel's key revenue streams include sales from its core brands like Barbie, Hot Wheels, and Fisher-Price, as well as from collaborations and licensing agreements with entertainment and media companies. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and global distribution networks, which enhance its market reach and contribute to its earnings. Additionally, Mattel has been expanding into digital and entertainment content, creating new revenue opportunities through media and gaming platforms.

Mattel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mattel demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability metrics, improved cash flow, and a balanced capital structure. Despite a slight decline in revenue, improved net profit margins and return on equity indicate effective management and operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Mattel shows a strong gross profit margin of approximately 50.8%, indicating efficient production relative to revenue. The net profit margin has improved significantly from 3.9% in 2023 to 10.1% in 2024, showcasing enhanced profitability. However, revenue slightly decreased by 1.1% from 2023 to 2024, which could be a concern if it continues. EBIT and EBITDA margins also highlight profitable operations, underscoring solid operational management.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 1.15, indicating a moderate level of leverage compared to equity. ROE improved to 23.9% in 2024 from 10% in 2023, reflecting better returns on shareholder investment. The equity ratio stands at 34.6%, showcasing a balanced capital structure. However, the company carries substantial debt, which may pose risks if not managed properly.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow increased by 12.8% from 2023 to 2024, indicating improved cash generation efficiency. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.48, suggesting robust cash generation relative to net income, which is a positive sign. Additionally, free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.48, aligning cash flow with profitability.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
5.38B	5.44B	5.43B	5.46B	4.58B
	Gross Profit
2.73B	2.58B	2.48B	2.63B	2.24B
	EBIT
694.28M	561.66M	454.92M	540.39M	182.20M
	EBITDA
987.23M	766.53M	819.33M	909.01M	573.26M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
541.82M	214.35M	393.91M	902.99M	123.58M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.39B	1.26B	761.20M	731.40M	762.20M
	Total Assets
6.54B	6.44B	6.18B	6.39B	5.52B
	Total Debt
2.61B	2.67B	2.67B	2.85B	3.11B
	Net Debt
1.22B	1.41B	1.91B	2.12B	2.34B
	Total Liabilities
4.28B	4.29B	4.12B	4.83B	4.92B
	Stockholders Equity
2.26B	2.15B	2.06B	1.57B	596.30M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
800.57M	709.49M	256.50M	333.65M	167.40M
	Operating Cash Flow
800.57M	869.79M	443.00M	485.00M	289.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-189.04M	-142.42M	-144.00M	-105.00M	-135.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-449.35M	-226.57M	-269.00M	-411.00M	-21.00M

Mattel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 14.77
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.56, below the 50-day MA of 19.91, and below the 200-day MA of 18.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAT.

Mattel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YETI	78 Outperform	$2.56B	15.03	24.01%	―	10.32%	6.05%
MAT	73 Outperform	$5.12B	9.95	24.55%	―	-1.13%	163.15%
GOLF	70 Outperform	$3.72B	18.41	26.30%	1.42%	3.15%	15.44%
HAS	68 Neutral	$7.44B	19.35	34.75%	4.14%	-17.28%	―
JAKK	62 Neutral	$229.06M	6.54	15.57%	1.22%	-2.88%	-14.25%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$11.74B	10.16	-1.06%	4.15%	1.27%	-16.61%
JOUT	48 Neutral	$241.18M	―	-9.70%	5.88%	-9.98%	-348.96%

Mattel Corporate Events

Mattel Announces CFO Retirement and Leadership Transition

On January 13, 2025, Mattel’s CFO, Anthony DiSilvestro, announced his retirement effective May 15, 2025, after serving since August 2020. DiSilvestro will continue as an advisor for 90 days post-retirement to ensure a smooth transition, as the company undergoes a search for his successor. Under his leadership, Mattel achieved significant financial milestones, enhancing its position as a high-performing toy company. This transition marks a pivotal moment for Mattel’s strategic direction, potentially impacting stakeholders and the market.