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Eli Lilly & Co (LLY)
NYSE:LLY
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Eli Lilly & Co
(NYSE:LLY)74Outperform
Positive Factors
Market Share
Lilly continues to outgrow Novo with market share stretching towards equal.
Product Growth
Mounjaro is steadily growing with a 4-week year-over-year growth rate at 61% vs 55% last week.
Negative Factors
Market Penetration
Zepbound vials make up a low/mid-single-digit percentage of total scripts, signaling limited market penetration.
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$872.91B
Dividend Yield0.58%
Average Volume (3M)3.62M
Price to Earnings (P/E)78.6
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth32.00%
EPS Growth102.18%
CountryUS
Employees43,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength74
IndustryPharmaceuticals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.49
Shares Outstanding948,170,000
10 Day Avg. Volume3,670,585
30 Day Avg. Volume3,622,415
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.77
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)19.38
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)88.20
P/FCF Ratio223.20
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1,029.14Price Target Upside12.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
Eli Lilly & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionEli Lilly & Co (LLY) is a global pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets products in human health. The company focuses on several key therapeutic areas, including diabetes, oncology, immunology, neurodegeneration, and pain management. With a robust portfolio of innovative medicines, Eli Lilly aims to improve patient outcomes and address unmet medical needs worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyEli Lilly & Co generates revenue primarily through the sale of pharmaceutical products. The company's revenue model is centered around developing and commercializing proprietary medications, which are either marketed directly by Eli Lilly or through partnerships and collaborations. Key revenue streams include sales from their flagship diabetes medications like Trulicity and Humalog, oncology treatments such as Verzenio, and other therapies across immunology and pain management. Additionally, strategic partnerships and collaborations, including licensing agreements and joint ventures, contribute to the company's earnings. Factors such as regulatory approvals, patent protections, and market expansions also play a significant role in Eli Lilly's revenue generation.
Eli Lilly & Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Eli Lilly & Co demonstrates strong revenue and profit growth with robust margins, indicating effective cost controls and profitability enhancements. The strengthened equity base and elimination of reported debt reduce financial risk. However, the absence of recent cash flow data and total assets and liabilities for 2024 limits full financial health assessment, necessitating attention to cash flow management.Income Statement
Eli Lilly & Co shows strong revenue growth with a significant increase from $34.12B in 2023 to $45.04B in 2024, marking a revenue growth rate of approximately 32.3%. The gross profit margin is robust at 81.3% for 2024, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin improved to 23.5% in 2024 from 15.4% in 2023, showcasing enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 28.6% and 41.6% respectively, reflecting efficient operations and substantial earnings before interest and taxes.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet presents a healthy equity position with stockholders' equity at $14.32B in 2024, up from $10.77B in 2023, resulting in a notable return on equity of 73.9% in 2024. The company has eliminated its reported debt by 2024, which indicates a substantially lower financial risk. However, the lack of reported total assets and liabilities for 2024 makes it difficult to assess the complete financial stability and leverage ratios.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow data for 2024 is not reported, causing difficulty in assessing recent cash flow trends. For 2023, the free cash flow was negative, which reflects challenges in cash generation. However, the company has shown positive operating cash flows in previous years, suggesting potential for recovery. The absence of data in 2024 restricts full analysis, but past figures indicate operational challenges in cash flow management.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 45.04B | 34.12B | 28.54B | 28.32B | 24.54B | Gross Profit |
| 36.62B | 27.04B | 21.91B | 21.01B | 19.06B | EBIT |
| 12.90B | 10.33B | 7.13B | 6.36B | 6.06B | EBITDA |
| 15.23B | 8.57B | 8.66B | 8.04B | 8.91B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 10.59B | 5.24B | 6.24B | 5.58B | 6.19B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 3.27B | 2.93B | 2.21B | 3.91B | 3.68B | Total Assets |
| 78.71B | 64.01B | 49.49B | 48.81B | 46.63B | Total Debt |
| 33.64B | 25.23B | 16.24B | 16.88B | 16.60B | Net Debt |
| -3.27B | 22.41B | 14.17B | 13.07B | 12.94B | Total Liabilities |
| 64.44B | 53.14B | 38.71B | 39.65B | 40.81B | Stockholders Equity |
| 14.32B | 10.77B | 10.65B | 8.98B | 5.64B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 414.30M | -3.15B | 4.60B | 5.39B | 4.47B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 8.82B | 4.24B | 7.08B | 7.26B | 6.50B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -9.30B | -7.15B | -3.26B | -2.76B | -2.26B | Financing Cash Flow |
| 1.23B | 3.50B | -5.41B | -4.13B | -3.14B |
Eli Lilly & Co Technical Analysis
Positive
911.06
Price Trends
817.94
Positive
823.26
Positive
850.63
Positive
Market Momentum
28.80
Negative
64.80
Neutral
83.87
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 911.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 878.19, above the 50-day MA of 817.94, and above the 200-day MA of 850.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 28.80 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.87 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LLY.
Eli Lilly & Co Risk Analysis
Eli Lilly & Co disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Eli Lilly & Co reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Eli Lilly & Co Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $215.94B | 18.43 | 27.11% | 2.93% | 1.08% | -17.73% | |
78 Outperform | $397.30B | 28.50 | 19.68% | 2.96% | -4.51% | 3.69% | |
74 Outperform | $872.91B | 78.59 | 73.95% | 0.58% | 32.00% | 102.18% | |
71 Outperform | $233.03B | 13.69 | 36.96% | 3.35% | 6.85% | 4577.79% | |
69 Neutral | $149.79B | 18.76 | 8.68% | 6.39% | 8.77% | 272.80% | |
60 Neutral | $120.99B | ― | -54.78% | 4.04% | 7.32% | -214.24% | |
49 Neutral | $7.05B | 0.34 | -55.07% | 2.46% | 25.28% | -3.56% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
LLY
Eli Lilly & Co
911.06
138.49
17.93%
BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb
59.44
10.09
20.45%
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
165.42
10.42
6.72%
MRK
Merck & Company
92.56
-27.01
-22.59%
NVS
Novartis
111.42
11.76
11.80%
PFE
Pfizer
25.75
1.21
4.93%
Eli Lilly & Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 6, 2025 | % Change Since: 8.37% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant revenue growth and successful product launches, underpinned by strategic investments and advancements in the pipeline. However, challenges such as pricing pressures, a decline in Trulicity revenue, and supply constraints in certain regions tempered the overall positive outlook.Highlights
Record-Breaking Revenue Growth
Full year revenue grew 32% compared to 2023, exceeding guidance by $4 billion. Revenue grew 45% in the most recent quarter.
Strong Product Launches and Pipeline Advances
Successful launches of Mounjaro and Zepbound, both contributing significantly to revenue. Positive Phase III results for imlunestrant, insulin efsitora alfa, and several tirzepatide trials.
Expansion and Innovation Initiatives
Acquisitions and collaborations with Morphic Therapeutics and OpenAI. Investments in manufacturing facilities totaling over $23 billion since 2020.
New Product Approvals
Regulatory approvals for Kisunla, Ebglyss, and a new indication for Zepbound in obstructive sleep apnea.
2025 Financial Guidance
Expected revenue growth of approximately 32% compared to 2024, driven by continued incretin class growth and new market launches.
Lowlights
Pricing and Market Challenges
Realized prices decreased 5% in the U.S., and net prices are expected to decline by mid- to high single digits in percentage terms in 2025.
Trulicity Revenue Decline
Worldwide Trulicity revenue declined by 25%, impacted by Mounjaro switches and lower realized prices.
Supply Constraints
Limited initial sales of Mounjaro in China due to supply limitations, with more meaningful contributions expected in the second half of 2025.
Investment and Expense Increases
R&D expenses increased 18% and marketing, selling, and administrative expenses increased 26% due to new product launches and promotional efforts.
Company Guidance
During the Eli Lilly Q4 2024 earnings call, the company provided guidance for 2025, outlining expectations for continued growth. For 2025, they anticipate revenue between $58 billion and $61 billion, representing approximately 32% growth compared to 2024. Key growth drivers include U.S. incretin class expansion, with expectations for Mounjaro international revenue to become more significant in the latter half of 2025. They forecast a decline in Trulicity volume due to shifts toward newer incretins. Additionally, oncology, neuroscience, and immunology are projected to contribute to revenue growth, with a focus on new product launches like Ebglyss, Jaypirca, Omvoh, and Kisunla. The company expects a net price decline in the mid- to high-single digits, impacted by U.S. Part D changes and foreign exchange headwinds. The estimated effective tax rate is around 16%, with projected non-GAAP EPS between $22.50 and $24.00. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue is expected to improve, reflecting operational leverage and product mix optimization.Eli Lilly & Co Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Eli Lilly & Co Appoints Procter & Gamble CEO to Board
Neutral
Nov 19, 2024
Eli Lilly and Company announced the appointment of Jon Moeller, Chairman and CEO of Procter & Gamble, to its board of directors, effective December 1, 2024. Moeller brings extensive experience in leadership and strategic operations, complementing Lilly’s focus on innovation and growth. Concurrently, board member Karen Walker will resign at the end of 2024 but will continue collaborating with Lilly on digital initiatives in 2025. This transition marks a strategic evolution for Lilly as it enhances its digital and commercial capabilities.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.