Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $46.31B
• Dividend Yield: 2.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 13.57M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.24
• Revenue Growth: 3.62%
• EPS Growth: -32.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 28,100
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 1.05
• Shares Outstanding: 1,356,750,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 23,169,030
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 13,571,711
• PEG Ratio: 1.02
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.02
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 13.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $37.93
• Price Target Upside: 12.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16

Keurig Dr Pepper achieves a strong overall stock score of 75.8 due to its solid financial performance, bullish technical indicators, and positive earnings outlook. The company's robust cash flow and strategic growth initiatives further bolster its position. However, a high P/E ratio and challenges in the U.S. Coffee segment present areas for cautious monitoring.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth Prospects

KDP has momentum with prospects of revenue beats into the future.

Transition of Shares

The transition of over 1 billion shares from private to public is nearly complete, allowing KDP to more fully embrace fundamentals.

Negative Factors

Coffee Segment Uncertainty

The near-term path of the coffee business has some uncertainty, with the lag of pricing to inflation and no clean read yet on elasticity.

Keurig Dr Pepper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Massachusetts-based Keurig Dr Pepper, Inc. operates as a non-alcoholic beverage company in the US and internationally. It operates through four segments: Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, and Latin America Beverages.

How the Company Makes Money

Keurig Dr Pepper generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of its beverages and coffee systems. The company earns money by selling packaged beverages, including carbonated soft drinks, ready-to-drink teas, and bottled water, to retailers and distributors. In addition, KDP profits from its Keurig brewing systems and the sale of K-Cup pods, which are compatible with its coffee machines. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and licensing agreements that expand its brand reach and product offerings. Key factors contributing to KDP's earnings include a robust distribution network, a diverse product portfolio, and a strong presence in both the retail and away-from-home markets.

Keurig Dr Pepper Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Keurig Dr Pepper displays a solid financial performance with steady revenue growth and strong cash flow management. However, the decrease in net profit margin and return on equity highlights areas for potential improvement. The company's high debt-to-equity ratio requires careful monitoring to mitigate financial risk.

Income Statement

Keurig Dr Pepper has demonstrated solid revenue growth, with a 3.62% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin is healthy at 55.57%, indicating efficient production processes. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 9.39%, suggesting rising costs or operational inefficiencies. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting consistent operating performance.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong equity base, with an equity ratio of 45.38%, indicative of financial stability. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 0.64, which could pose risks if interest rates rise. The return on equity has decreased to 5.94%, which may concern investors seeking higher returns.

Cash Flow

Keurig Dr Pepper has shown robust free cash flow growth of 95.10%, reflecting improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.54, indicating strong cash conversion. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.15 suggests effective cash management, although there is room for improvement in capital efficiency.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
15.35B	14.81B	14.06B	12.68B	11.62B
	Gross Profit
8.53B	8.08B	7.32B	6.98B	6.49B
	EBIT
2.59B	3.19B	2.60B	2.89B	2.48B
	EBITDA
3.38B	3.97B	3.58B	3.74B	2.85B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.44B	2.18B	1.44B	2.15B	1.32B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
510.00M	267.00M	535.00M	567.00M	240.00M
	Total Assets
53.43B	52.13B	51.84B	50.60B	49.78B
	Total Debt
17.27B	14.82B	11.97B	11.88B	13.49B
	Net Debt
16.76B	14.56B	11.43B	11.31B	13.25B
	Total Liabilities
29.19B	26.45B	26.71B	25.63B	25.95B
	Stockholders Equity
24.24B	25.68B	25.13B	24.97B	23.83B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.66B	848.00M	2.46B	2.42B	1.94B
	Operating Cash Flow
2.22B	1.33B	2.84B	2.87B	2.46B
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.61B	-784.00M	-1.14B	210.00M	-316.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-223.00M	-832.00M	-1.73B	-2.76B	-1.99B

Keurig Dr Pepper Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 33.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KDP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.61, above the 50-day MA of 32.00, and above the 200-day MA of 33.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KDP.

Keurig Dr Pepper Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KO	78 Outperform	$301.89B	28.52	42.77%	2.68%	1.96%	-0.45%
MNST	76 Outperform	$53.15B	37.18	25.33%	―	4.94%	-4.13%
KDP	76 Outperform	$46.31B	32.41	5.94%	2.61%	3.62%	-32.23%
FIZZ	70 Outperform	$3.77B	20.28	31.59%	―	0.73%	12.96%
PEP	69 Neutral	$211.47B	22.18	53.09%	3.42%	0.42%	5.77%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.85B	13.27	-10.88%	7.48%	1.13%	11.50%
COTY	57 Neutral	$4.81B	40.12	0.27%	―	1.35%	-99.94%

Keurig Dr Pepper Corporate Events

Keurig Dr Pepper Board Restructuring Amid Stockholder Sale

On February 28, 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. experienced significant changes in its board of directors as three members affiliated with JAB BevCo B.V. resigned, reducing the board size from eleven to eight. This coincided with the completion of a public secondary offering by the Selling Stockholder, resulting in gross proceeds of approximately $2.7 billion, although the company did not receive any proceeds from this sale.

Keurig Dr Pepper Executive Resigns, Transition Planned

Andrew Archambault, President of U.S. Refreshment Beverages at Keurig Dr Pepper, has resigned effective January 13, 2025, and will assist in the transition until his departure on January 31, 2025. His resignation could potentially impact the company’s operations, as he is a named executive officer, but the company aims for a smooth transition to his successor.