JD (JD) AI Stock Analysis

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JD

(NASDAQ:JD)

72Outperform

JD's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and improved profitability, which is a key strength. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, which could be a risk factor, while valuation metrics indicate potential undervaluation. Positive earnings call highlights, including revenue growth and strategic investments, bolster the outlook.

Positive Factors

Earnings Growth

Analyst's price target of US$41 for JD is justified against 9.6% year-over-year earnings growth in 2025.

Stimulus Impact

JD stands to benefit from any incremental stimulus aimed at boosting consumption, as it is a direct sales platform.

Trade-in Program

JD's leading market share, strong brand recognition, and robust supply chain position it as a key beneficiary of the ongoing trade-in program.

Negative Factors

Earnings Downside

Higher-than-expected investment in food delivery could lead to earnings downside for 2025.

Earnings Guidance

Increasing investment in food delivery could lead to a full year earnings guide down at its 1Q25 results.

Macroeconomic Risks

If China’s macro or consumer sentiment gets hurt, or JD’s promised procurement of RMB200b goods from exporters results in overstocks, its outlook could be adversely affected.

JD (JD) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$60.08B

Dividend Yield2.27%

Average Volume (3M)16.07M

Price to Earnings (P/E)10.2

Beta (1Y)1.15

Revenue Growth5.20%

EPS Growth77.60%

CountryUS

Employees570,895

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength63

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.01

Shares Outstanding1,449,500,000

10 Day Avg. Volume19,111,577

30 Day Avg. Volume16,066,109

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.44

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$51.15

Price Target Upside57.24% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering13

JD Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJD.com, Inc. (JD) is a leading Chinese e-commerce company that operates as an online retail platform. It is one of the largest business-to-consumer (B2C) online retailers in China by transaction volume and revenue. The company offers a wide range of products including electronics, home appliances, food, books, and apparel. JD is known for its commitment to authenticity, quality, and a vast logistics network that ensures efficient delivery services. The company also engages in technology development, particularly in areas such as AI and big data, to enhance its operations and customer experience.

How the Company Makes MoneyJD.com makes money primarily through its online retail operations, where it sells a diverse array of products directly to consumers. The company generates revenue from the sale of goods on its platform, leveraging its extensive logistics network to offer delivery services. Additionally, JD operates a marketplace model, where third-party sellers can list their products on the site, from which JD earns commission fees. The company also provides advertising services to these third-party sellers and earns revenue through its logistics and technology services offered to businesses. Key partnerships with international brands and technology firms further strengthen its market position and revenue streams.

JD Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Operating Expense Breakdown

Operating Expense Breakdown
Details core costs like R&D, marketing, and admin, offering insight into how efficiently JD runs and where it’s prioritizing investment.

Chart InsightsJD.com's operating expenses have seen significant fluctuations, with a notable increase in fulfillment and marketing expenses by the end of 2024. This aligns with the company's strategic focus on enhancing user experience and operational efficiency through AI and robotics, as highlighted in their earnings call. Despite the rise in expenses, JD.com reported strong revenue growth and improved user engagement, suggesting that their investments are yielding positive results. The emphasis on cost reduction and efficiency improvements positions JD.com well for sustained growth, even as they navigate challenges in new business segments.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

JD Financial Statement Overview

Summary

JD has shown significant revenue growth and improved profitability, with a strong balance sheet characterized by low debt and strong equity. However, incomplete cash flow data for 2024 creates some uncertainty in cash flow analysis.

Income Statement

Very Positive

JD has shown impressive revenue growth, increasing from 576.9 billion in 2019 to 1.16 trillion in 2024. The gross profit margin has been stable, around 9.8% in 2024 compared to 14.8% in 2023, indicating effective cost management. Net profit margin improved significantly to 3.6% in 2024 from a loss in 2021, showing a strong recovery and profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy, demonstrating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low at 0.37, indicating manageable leverage. The equity ratio is strong at 34.3%, showing a solid equity base. Return on equity has improved significantly to 17.3% in 2024, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. Overall, JD's balance sheet is stable with a good balance between liabilities and equity.

Cash Flow

Positive

Free cash flow has been positive, though growth has been inconsistent, with significant fluctuations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unavailable in 2024 due to missing data, but prior years showed strong cash generation relative to net income. While the cash flow statements indicate strong cash positions, the lack of reported cash flow metrics in 2024 prevents a complete assessment.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.16T	1.08T	1.05T	951.59B	745.80B
	Gross Profit
113.44B	159.70B	147.07B	129.07B	109.11B
	EBIT
38.74B	26.02B	19.72B	3.37B	44.23B
	EBITDA
47.36B	42.82B	23.21B	4.14B	58.01B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
41.36B	24.17B	10.38B	-3.56B	49.41B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
234.00B	190.15B	219.96B	185.33B	146.66B
	Total Assets
698.23B	628.96B	595.25B	496.51B	422.29B
	Total Debt
89.77B	68.43B	65.05B	34.14B	31.55B
	Net Debt
-18.58B	-3.46B	-13.82B	-36.63B	-54.53B
	Total Liabilities
384.94B	332.58B	321.13B	249.72B	200.67B
	Stockholders Equity
239.35B	231.86B	213.37B	208.91B	187.54B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
0.00	39.51B	35.84B	23.74B	34.87B
	Operating Cash Flow
0.00	59.52B	57.82B	42.30B	42.54B
	Investing Cash Flow
0.00	-59.54B	-54.03B	-74.25B	-57.81B
	Financing Cash Flow
0.00	-5.81B	1.18B	19.50B	71.07B

JD Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price32.53

Price Trends

50DMA

39.68

Negative

100DMA

38.65

Negative

200DMA

35.66

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-2.05

Positive

RSI

32.54

Neutral

STOCH

8.44

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.44, below the 50-day MA of 39.68, and below the 200-day MA of 35.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.44 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JD.

JD Risk Analysis

JD disclosed 111 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JD reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

JD Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BABA	81 Outperform	$284.61B	16.77	11.97%	0.81%	4.28%	28.42%
MELI	78 Outperform	$101.24B	52.98	51.50%	―	43.56%	91.72%
SE	76 Outperform	$75.26B	171.21	5.93%	―	28.46%	185.04%
JD	72 Outperform	$60.08B	10.22	17.55%	2.27%	5.20%	77.60%
PDD	70 Outperform	$144.45B	9.85	45.06%	―	57.51%	82.28%
CPNG	63 Neutral	$42.32B	282.75	3.76%	―	24.14%	-88.77%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$6.86B	11.61	3.16%	4.15%	2.41%	-21.45%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

32.53

2.64

8.83%

MELI

Mercadolibre

2,225.85

787.49

54.75%

BABA

Alibaba

120.28

45.48

60.80%

Sea

127.76

63.24

98.02%

PDD

PDD Holdings

104.01

-22.81

-17.99%

CPNG

Coupang

23.44

0.34

1.47%

JD Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 06, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: -25.66%|

Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

JD.com demonstrated strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and user engagement improvements. While there were challenges in the new business segment and a temporary impact on home appliance sales, the company's strong fundamentals and strategic investments in AI and logistics position it well for future growth.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Q4 and Full Year 2024 Performance

JD.com reported a robust Q4 with a 13% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB347 billion and a full-year 7% revenue growth to RMB1.2 trillion. The company showed strong double-digit growth across most categories, including electronics and home appliances with a 16% year-on-year increase.

Growth in General Merchandise

General merchandise revenues grew by 11% year-on-year in Q4 and 9% for the full year. The supermarket business, specifically, saw double-digit growth for four consecutive quarters, driven by improvements in supply chain capabilities.

User Growth and Engagement

JD.com experienced double-digit growth in quarterly active customers for five consecutive quarters. User shopping frequency also showed double-digit growth for four quarters in a row.

Shareholder Returns

JD.com increased its annual dividend by 32% year-on-year to $1 per ADS and repurchased 8.1% of outstanding shares in 2024, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns.

AI and Robotics Integration

The company has integrated AI across various business areas, including marketing, customer service, and logistics, to improve efficiency and reduce costs.

Negative Updates

Decline in New Business Segment

The new business segment saw a revenue decline of 31% in Q4 and 28% for the full year, mainly due to adjustments in the Jingxi business.

Temporary Impact on Home Appliance Sales

Home appliance sales were temporarily affected early in the year due to sales being pulled forward to the end of 2024.

Company Guidance

During the JD.com fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call, the company reported strong financial results, with total revenues increasing by 7% year-on-year and a non-GAAP net margin reaching 4.1%. The electronics and home appliances category saw a notable upswing with revenues growing by 16% year-on-year, while the general merchandise category accelerated to 11% growth year-on-year. JD.com also experienced double-digit user growth for five consecutive quarters, with shopping frequency rising similarly. The company emphasized its commitment to lowering costs, improving efficiency, and investing in user experience. In 2024, JD.com returned significant value to shareholders with a total shareholder return rate of close to 10%, including a 32% year-on-year increase in annual cash dividends and a share repurchase program that accounted for 8.1% of its shares outstanding. Looking ahead, JD.com aims to leverage AI and industrial robotics to further enhance operational efficiency and user experience, as well as to capitalize on government stimulus policies to drive future growth.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.