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Guidewire Software Inc. (GWRE)
:GWRE

Guidewire (GWRE) AI Stock Analysis

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GW

Guidewire

(NYSE:GWRE)

63Neutral
Guidewire's overall score is driven by robust revenue growth and a stable balance sheet, but hindered by ongoing profitability issues and a lack of meaningful valuation metrics. The positive momentum from recent earnings and strategic cloud transitions boost the outlook, though technical indicators suggest caution in the short term.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Guidewire reported another strong quarter with all key metrics ahead of expectations led by ARR and total revenue growth of 15% and 20%, respectively.
Market Expansion
Guidewire is positioned to capture a larger share of the growing P&C market, with potential to increase its platform's share above 50%.
Strategic Acquisition
Guidewire Software signed a definitive agreement to acquire Quantee, a Polish InsurTech startup, which is expected to enhance smarter insurance pricing.
Negative Factors
Shareholder Dilution
GWRE retired $100 million of convertible notes and plans to repurchase the rest, which is expected to reduce shareholder dilution.
Valuation Concerns
Despite a positive fundamental outlook, the stretched valuation of GWRE leads to a Hold rating.

Guidewire (GWRE) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Guidewire Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGuidewire Software, Inc. provides software products for property and casualty insurers worldwide. The company offers Guidewire InsuranceSuite comprising Guidewire PolicyCenter, BillingCenter, and ClaimCenter applications. It also provides Guidewire InsuranceNow, a cloud-based platform that offers policy, billing, and claims management functionality to insurers; and Guidewire InsuranceSuite for Self-Managed. In addition, the company offers Guidewire Rating Management to manage the pricing of insurance products; Guidewire Reinsurance Management to use rules-based logic to execute reinsurance strategy through underwriting and claims processes; Guidewire Client Data Management to capitalize on customer information; and Guidewire Product Content Management that offers software tools and standards-based line-of-business templates to introduce and modify products. Further, it provides Guidewire Underwriting Management, a cloud-based integrated business application; Guidewire AppReader, a submission intake management solution; Guidewire ClaimCenter Package for the London market supports the claims workflow used by London Market insurers and brokers; Guidewire Digital Engagement Applications, which enable insurers to provide digital experiences to customers, agents, vendors, and field personnel through their device of choice; and Guidewire for Salesforce to provide customer information regarding policies and claims. Additionally, the company offers Guidewire Predictive Analytics, a set of cloud-native applications; Guidewire Risk Insights that allows insurers to assess new and evolving risks; Guidewire Business Intelligence that allows insurers to measure business performance; Guidewire DataHub, an operational data store; and Guidewire InfoCenter, a business intelligence warehouse, as well as implementation and integration, and professional services. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyGuidewire makes money primarily through the sale of its software products and related services to insurance companies. The company's revenue model is based on software licensing fees, subscription fees for its cloud-based offerings, and professional services. Guidewire's licensing fees are generated from both term licenses and perpetual licenses, while its subscription fees are derived from its cloud-based platforms. Additionally, Guidewire provides implementation, training, and support services, which contribute to its service revenue. Key partnerships with major insurers and strategic alliances with technology providers also play a crucial role in expanding its market reach and driving sales.

Guidewire Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Guidewire exhibits robust revenue growth and maintains a stable balance sheet with manageable leverage. Nonetheless, ongoing profitability issues and negative net income hinder its financial performance. Improving margins and sustaining positive cash flow growth are critical for future financial health.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Guidewire's revenue growth is evident with a TTM increase of 10.6% compared to the previous year. However, the company has struggled with profitability, as reflected in negative net income across multiple periods, and a modest EBIT margin of 0.07% in the TTM. EBITDA margin has also been negative, impacting overall profitability.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a stable balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70 in the TTM, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio is 49.9%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. However, the negative ROE of -1.33% highlights profitability challenges.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Guidewire's cash flow has shown improvement, with positive free cash flow growth in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, demonstrating effective cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio needs enhancement due to persistent net losses.
Breakdown
TTMSep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.08B980.50M905.34M812.61M743.27M742.31M
Gross Profit
666.21M583.36M458.21M352.22M368.21M404.29M
EBIT
79.00K-52.57M-149.49M-199.45M-105.58M-6.39M
EBITDA
6.14M20.02M-101.21M-161.43M-37.17M46.16M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-16.86M-6.10M-111.86M-180.43M-66.51M-27.20M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
31.17M1.00B798.68M976.17M1.12B1.13B
Total Assets
102.80M2.23B2.03B2.27B2.32B2.36B
Total Debt
0.00442.92M440.14M475.58M459.20M449.62M
Net Debt
-31.17M-105.07M38.33M-130.73M74.29M82.65M
Total Liabilities
76.13M883.56M828.42M815.24M776.95M708.08M
Stockholders Equity
26.67M1.34B1.20B1.45B1.54B1.66B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
212.15M177.22M20.97M-59.72M82.73M87.41M
Operating Cash Flow
222.27M195.75M38.40M-37.94M111.59M113.07M
Investing Cash Flow
-131.66M-52.36M12.71M312.21M64.19M-5.80M
Financing Cash Flow
260.97M1.05M-261.58M-37.34M-159.39M4.96M

Guidewire Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price175.36
Price Trends
50DMA
198.07
Negative
100DMA
191.14
Negative
200DMA
176.05
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.28
Negative
RSI
48.39
Neutral
STOCH
30.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GWRE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 175.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 187.38, below the 50-day MA of 198.07, and below the 200-day MA of 176.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GWRE.

Guidewire Risk Analysis

Guidewire disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Guidewire reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Guidewire Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$18.33B24.8111.81%1.33%6.89%26.17%
78
Outperform
$11.34B22.2234.88%0.76%11.19%51.03%
BSBSY
78
Outperform
$11.72B53.4124.39%0.65%10.15%-28.62%
75
Outperform
$9.77B44.9020.49%15.96%31.76%
68
Neutral
$5.44B57.2021.12%0.19%4.51%43.29%
63
Neutral
$14.62B528.94-1.34%17.16%67.81%
57
Neutral
$18.54B9.84-14.38%2.71%5.07%-23.65%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GWRE
Guidewire
175.36
60.44
52.59%
PEGA
Pegasystems
63.19
1.31
2.12%
SSNC
SS&C Technologies Holdings
73.27
11.45
18.52%
PAYC
Paycom
196.53
-3.75
-1.87%
PCTY
Paylocity
174.81
6.60
3.92%
BSY
Bentley Systems
39.12
-11.02
-21.98%

Guidewire Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 6, 2025 | % Change Since: -6.21% | Next Earnings Date: Jun 10, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presents a positive outlook with strong ARR and revenue growth, successful cloud deal closures, and a robust cloud ecosystem. The company also demonstrated a positive impact on customers affected by recent natural disasters. However, challenges include high costs associated with convertible notes retirement, service revenue constraints, and potential foreign exchange impacts. The company's hiring delays could also impact future product development. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.
Highlights
Strong ARR Growth
ARR finished at $918 million, reflecting strong sequential ARR additions and a net new ARR addition of $45 million, which is comparable to the largest seasonal quarter in Q4 last year.
Revenue and Subscription Growth
Total revenue was $289 million, up 20% year over year, with subscription and support revenue at $178 million, reflecting 35% year over year growth.
Successful Cloud Deal Closures
Closed twelve cloud deals, including four full insurance suite deals and welcomed five new customers, including one in Brazil and one in Belgium.
Strong Cloud Ecosystem
Guidewire Marketplace now has over 500 applications, including over 270 from technology partners, with over 6,000 app downloads in the first half of the year.
Improved Operating Profit
Operating profit finished at $54 million, ahead of expectations, with gross profit at $189 million, representing a 25% year over year growth.
High Cash Flow from Operations
Operating cash flow ended the quarter at $86 million, ahead of expectations due to strong collections, and the company ended with $1.4 billion in cash and equivalents.
Positive Customer Impact
During the LA fires, California Casualty, using Guidewire Software, proactively identified and aided at-risk policyholders, providing full coverage payments within two months to over 90% of total loss home orders.
Lowlights
High Convertible Notes Retirement Cost
Retired $100 million at face value of 2025 convertible notes at a real cost of $153 million, resulting in a $53 million charge to other income on a GAAP basis.
Service Revenue Constraints
Services revenue finished at $48 million, which was in line with expectations, but services margins were only 6% compared to negative 11% a year ago.
Cost Related to Hiring Delays
Hiring was slower than expected in the first half, which may impact product development teams, although an increase in hiring is expected in the second half.
Foreign Exchange Impact
If ARR was updated today based on current exchange rates, there would be an approximately $9 million negative adjustment.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of fiscal 2025, Guidewire Software, Inc. reported strong financial performance and operational progress, surpassing expectations with an ARR of $918 million and total revenue of $289 million, which is up 20% year over year. The company closed 12 cloud deals, including four full insurance suite deals, and welcomed five new customers, showing significant momentum in cloud adoption. Subscription and support revenue grew by 35% year over year to $178 million, while services revenue aligned with expectations at $48 million. The company's operating profit reached $54 million, supported by a gross profit margin of 65% and a subscription and support gross margin of 69%. With a strategic focus on cloud migrations, Guidewire aims to transition 100% of its on-prem customer base to its cloud platform, leveraging its growing ecosystem of partners. The company is optimistic about the future, raising its ARR outlook to $1 billion to $1.01 billion, reflecting a growth of 16% to 17% year over year, driven by strong sales pipeline and ARR ramp-ups from prior deals.

Guidewire Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Guidewire Appoints Jeff Sloan to Board of Directors
Positive
Jan 27, 2025

Guidewire Software, Inc. appointed Jeff Sloan to its Board of Directors effective January 21, 2025. With his extensive leadership experience in the financial services and technology industries, particularly from his time as CEO of Global Payments Inc., Sloan is expected to provide valuable insight and perspective to Guidewire as it continues to grow and innovate its cloud platform for P&C insurers.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.