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GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
:GSK

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) AI Stock Analysis

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GlaxoSmithKline

(NYSE:GSK)

69Neutral
GSK demonstrates strong earnings growth and positive market momentum, particularly in specialty medicines and oncology. However, concerns about declining free cash flow and moderate valuation metrics slightly offset these strengths. The strategic outlook is positive, with significant growth prospects and shareholder returns anticipated.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

GlaxoSmithKline Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGSK plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, and manufacture of vaccines, and specialty and general medicines to prevent and treat disease in the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Commercial Operations and Total R&D. The company offers shingles, meningitis, respiratory syncytial virus, flu, polio, influenza, and pandemic vaccines. It also provides medicines for HIV, oncology, respiratory/immunology, and other specialty medicine products, as well as inhaled medicines for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and antibiotics for infections. It has a collaboration agreement with CureVac to develop mRNA-based influenza vaccines, and with Wave Life Sciences and Elsie Biotechnologies, Inc for oligonucleotide platform development; two strategic collaborations with Relation to advance therapeutics for fibrotic diseases and osteoarthritis; and multi-target strategic alliance with GSK to develop breakthrough treatments for people afflicted with Parkinson's disease; as well as collaboration with Flagship Pioneering to discover novel medicines and vaccines. The company was formerly known as GlaxoSmithKline plc and changed its name to GSK plc in May 2022. GSK plc was founded in 1715 and is headquartered in Brentford, the United Kingdom.dom.
How the Company Makes MoneyGlaxoSmithKline makes money primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, vaccines, and consumer healthcare goods. The Pharmaceuticals segment generates revenue by developing and selling prescription medications targeting various therapeutic areas, including respiratory, HIV, oncology, and immuno-inflammation. The Vaccines division earns income by producing and distributing vaccines for diseases such as influenza, hepatitis, and HPV. The Consumer Healthcare segment contributes to revenue by offering a wide range of over-the-counter products, including pain relief, oral health, and nutritional supplements. GSK also engages in partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies and institutions, which can provide additional income through licensing agreements and shared research initiatives. Key factors contributing to GSK's earnings include its strong research and development capabilities, a broad product portfolio, and a global distribution network.

GlaxoSmithKline Financial Statement Overview

Summary
GSK's financial performance is stable with moderate revenue growth and profitability. Despite a decline in margins, the company maintains strong cash generation. However, the balance sheet shows moderate leverage, and declining free cash flow indicates potential cash retention challenges.
Income Statement
65
Positive
GSK's income statement reflects moderate profitability with a Gross Profit Margin of 71.2% and a Net Profit Margin of 8.2% for 2024. Despite a decline in EBIT Margin from 17.2% in 2023 to 12.8% in 2024, the company maintains a strong EBITDA Margin of 21.3%. Revenue growth rate shows a 3.5% increase from 2023 to 2024, indicating stable revenue expansion, although profitability has been somewhat pressured.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 1.24, indicating moderate leverage compared to industry standards. Return on Equity is healthy at 18.8% for 2024, showing effective use of equity. However, the Equity Ratio stands at 23.0%, suggesting a relatively low equity buffer against total assets, which could pose risks during financial downturns.
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
GSK's cash flow statement reveals a decrease in Free Cash Flow from 4.42 billion in 2023 to 3.57 billion in 2024, reflecting a negative growth rate of 19.2%. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong at 2.54, indicating robust cash generation relative to net income. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio has decreased to 1.39, suggesting less cash retained per profit unit.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
31.38B30.33B29.32B34.11B34.10B
Gross Profit
22.33B21.76B19.77B22.51B22.39B
EBIT
4.02B6.75B6.43B6.20B7.78B
EBITDA
6.67B9.14B8.63B7.76B10.16B
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.58B4.93B4.92B4.38B5.75B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.71B4.99B7.88B4.33B6.37B
Total Assets
59.46B59.01B60.15B79.10B80.43B
Total Debt
16.99B18.02B20.99B24.17B27.15B
Net Debt
13.29B15.27B17.26B19.90B20.86B
Total Liabilities
46.38B46.21B50.05B57.76B59.62B
Stockholders Equity
13.67B13.35B10.60B15.05B14.59B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
3.57B4.42B5.14B5.02B6.20B
Operating Cash Flow
6.55B6.77B7.40B7.95B8.44B
Investing Cash Flow
-1.23B-1.59B-8.77B-1.78B2.16B
Financing Cash Flow
-4.73B-5.64B823.00M-7.59B-10.13B

GlaxoSmithKline Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price34.48
Price Trends
50DMA
37.42
Negative
100DMA
35.52
Negative
200DMA
37.20
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.29
Positive
RSI
45.13
Neutral
STOCH
31.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 34.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.89, below the 50-day MA of 37.42, and below the 200-day MA of 37.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GSK.

GlaxoSmithKline Risk Analysis

GlaxoSmithKline disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GlaxoSmithKline reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

GlaxoSmithKline Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (48)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
SNSNY
79
Outperform
$123.43B21.127.34%2.96%-4.57%2.96%
75
Outperform
$131.21B275.162.28%3.00%6.16%-91.54%
AZAZN
73
Outperform
$192.30B29.4217.60%2.34%18.03%18.11%
MRMRK
71
Outperform
$206.91B12.1640.81%4.00%6.85%4577.79%
GSGSK
69
Neutral
$65.80B21.3619.11%4.47%6.28%-47.11%
PFPFE
68
Neutral
$127.55B15.969.05%7.74%8.77%272.80%
48
Neutral
$6.36B1.24-44.94%2.70%18.33%1.47%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GSK
GlaxoSmithKline
34.48
-4.77
-12.15%
AZN
AstraZeneca
66.76
-1.32
-1.94%
GILD
Gilead Sciences
105.25
39.09
59.08%
MRK
Merck & Company
81.91
-40.61
-33.15%
PFE
Pfizer
22.49
-2.30
-9.28%
SNY
Sanofi
49.66
4.44
9.82%

GlaxoSmithKline Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 5, 2025 | % Change Since: 0.03% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects strong financial performance and growth in specialty medicines, particularly in oncology and HIV. However, there are notable challenges in the vaccines segment and financial impacts from litigation and regulatory changes. Overall, the positive aspects and future growth prospects outweigh the current challenges.
Highlights
Strong Financial Performance
Sales grew 8% to over £31 billion, core operating profit increased by 13%, and core EPS rose by 12% for 2024. This performance led to two upgrades in guidance and an increased dividend of 61p per share.
Specialty Medicines and Oncology Growth
Specialty medicines saw a 19% growth with oncology sales nearly doubling to over £1.4 billion. Blenrep is expected to launch with a significant potential impact on future sales.
HIV Segment Success
HIV sales increased by 13% in 2024, driven by strong demand for Cabenuva and Apretude, with a 47% growth for Cabenuva reaching over £1 billion.
Strong Balance Sheet and Shareholder Returns
Net debt reduced to £13 billion, and a £2 billion share buyback program was announced, alongside a 5% increase in the dividend.
R&D Achievements and Pipeline Progress
13 positive Phase 3 readouts were achieved in 2024, with new product approvals expected in 2025 for Blenrep, depemokimab, and others.
Lowlights
Vaccines Segment Challenges
Vaccine sales decreased by 3% due to lower sales of Arexvy in the U.S. and challenges in China. Short-term pressures in the U.S. vaccine market are anticipated to continue into 2025.
Impact of U.S. Inflation Reduction Act
The Inflation Reduction Act is expected to have a £150 million to £200 million impact on revenues in 2025.
Zantac Litigation Settlement
A £1.8 billion charge was recorded due to the resolution of the Zantac litigation, affecting the total operating profit for 2024.
Company Guidance
During the call, GSK outlined its strong performance for 2024, highlighting an 8% increase in sales to over £31 billion and a 13% rise in core operating profit, which contributed to a 12% growth in core EPS. The company upgraded its guidance twice in 2024 and announced a dividend increase to 61p per share. Specialty medicines showed robust momentum with double-digit growth across all therapy areas, notably doubling oncology sales to over £1.4 billion. GSK anticipates further growth in 2025, expecting sales to increase by 3% to 5% and core operating profit by 6% to 8%, supported by promising pipeline developments, including five new product approvals. The company's long-term outlook was revised upward, projecting risk-adjusted sales exceeding £40 billion by 2031, with more than 50% of sales driven by Specialty Medicines. Additionally, GSK announced plans for a £2 billion share buyback over 18 months, reflecting confidence in its strategic trajectory and balance sheet strength.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.