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Green Plains Inc. (GPRE)
:GPRE
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Green Plains
(NASDAQ:GPRE)
45Neutral
Positive Factors
Carbon Capture
The carbon capture initiative is progressing and is seen as a potential opportunity for success.
Cost Structure
Significant efforts are being undertaken to rightsize the company's cost structure, targeting a $50 million reduction.
Strategic Opportunities
The upcoming startup of the Tallgrass Trailblazer CO2 line and improved economics for Nebraska plants could increase interest in Green Plains Inc. ahead of the CCUS program.
Negative Factors
Earnings
The company has downgraded its earnings estimates due to various pressures, including the idling of the Fairmont ethanol plant.
Financial Performance
Green Plains Inc. has faced significant financial challenges, with disappointing quarterly results and a notable decline in equity value compared to the S&P 500.
Leadership
The long-time President and CEO of Green Plains Inc. has departed the company, which may create uncertainty about the company's future leadership.
Green Plains (GPRE) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$244.68M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.41M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth-25.69%
EPS Growth18.54%
CountryUS
Employees923
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.38
Shares Outstanding64,729,450
10 Day Avg. Volume1,993,451
30 Day Avg. Volume2,413,067
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.14
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-3.20
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.33Price Target Upside199.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
Green Plains Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGreen Plains Inc. (GPRE) is a diversified commodity-processing business headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska. The company primarily engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of ethanol and related products, which include distillers grains, corn oil, and renewable corn-based products. Green Plains operates through various segments, including Ethanol Production, Agribusiness, and Partnership, leveraging its extensive network of production facilities and integrated supply chain to deliver high-quality renewable energy solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreen Plains generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is the production and sale of ethanol, which is used as a renewable fuel additive to gasoline. The company capitalizes on government mandates for renewable fuel use, such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) in the United States, to drive demand for ethanol. Additionally, Green Plains sells co-products like distillers grains, which are used as high-protein animal feed, and corn oil, which is utilized in biodiesel production and food industries. The company also engages in agribusiness activities, including grain handling and storage, which contribute to its revenue. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures in the renewable energy sector further enhance its earnings potential by expanding its market reach and operational capabilities.
Green Plains Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Green Plains Inc. exhibits financial instability with declining revenues and persistent losses impacting profitability. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage but is offset by negative equity returns. Cash flow issues further compound the financial challenges, indicating a need for strategic adjustments to improve cash generation and profitability.Income Statement
Green Plains has shown a declining revenue trend over recent years with a significant drop from 2022 to 2023. Gross profit margins have been volatile, but net income remains negative, indicating persistent losses. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies and profitability challenges.42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, showing manageable leverage levels. However, the return on equity remains negative due to consecutive net losses. The equity ratio is reasonable, indicating some stability in asset financing through equity.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Green Plains faces challenges with cash flow, evident from negative free cash flow growth and declining operating cash flow. The operating and free cash flow to net income ratios are concerning, as they demonstrate poor cash conversion, potentially affecting liquidity.38
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 2.46B | 3.30B | 3.66B | 2.83B | 1.92B | Gross Profit |
| 130.45M | 164.75M | 137.84M | 202.06M | 111.56M | EBIT |
| -47.46M | -61.58M | -66.06M | -5.46M | -76.19M | EBITDA |
| 52.38M | 53.60M | 26.22M | 87.86M | -42.89M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -82.50M | -93.38M | -103.45M | -44.85M | -110.75M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 173.04M | 349.57M | 444.66M | 551.08M | 233.86M | Total Assets |
| 1.78B | 1.94B | 2.12B | 2.16B | 1.58B | Total Debt |
| 647.19M | 676.51M | 711.00M | 789.32M | 590.61M | Net Debt |
| 474.15M | 326.94M | 266.33M | 363.10M | 356.75M | Total Liabilities |
| 907.64M | 949.27M | 1.06B | 1.06B | 802.25M | Stockholders Equity |
| 865.22M | 843.73M | 910.03M | 950.50M | 646.85M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -125.05M | -51.75M | -142.66M | -182.95M | -11.68M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -29.96M | 56.35M | 69.71M | 4.25M | 98.89M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -62.05M | -106.90M | -105.25M | -236.28M | -11.45M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -77.35M | -70.96M | -25.14M | 518.19M | -82.53M |
Green Plains Technical Analysis
Negative
3.78
Price Trends
5.70
Negative
7.89
Negative
10.87
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.56
Positive
32.27
Neutral
35.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.73, below the 50-day MA of 5.70, and below the 200-day MA of 10.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPRE.
Green Plains Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (47)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $254.02M | 11.26 | 10.28% | ― | -17.96% | -53.53% | |
58 Neutral | $273.42M | 189.57 | 0.51% | ― | -10.30% | -93.51% | |
53 Neutral | $380.80M | ― | -3.83% | ― | -12.01% | -174.13% | |
47 Neutral | $2.49B | -2.97 | -22.93% | 3.49% | 4.06% | -27.72% | |
45 Neutral | $244.68M | ― | -9.65% | ― | -25.69% | 18.54% | |
42 Neutral | $64.86M | ― | -23.38% | ― | -21.07% | -104.32% | |
39 Underperform | $273.16M | ― | -15.02% | ― | -1.66% | -18.31% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GPRE
Green Plains
3.78
-17.15
-81.94%
GEVO
Gevo
1.14
0.52
83.87%
HDSN
Hudson Tech
5.77
-4.42
-43.38%
LXU
Lsb Industries
5.30
-2.80
-34.57%
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
0.85
-1.18
-58.13%
BIOX
Bioceres Crop Solutions
4.36
-8.14
-65.12%
Green Plains Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 7, 2025 | % Change Since: -54.40% | Next Earnings Date: May 5, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While there were significant achievements in cost savings, strategic initiatives, and market penetration, the company faced notable financial challenges, including a quarterly net loss, negative EBITDA, and the idling of a production facility. The company's strategic focus on carbon capture and new market opportunities is positive, but current market conditions and financial performance are areas of concern.Highlights
Cost Savings and Restructuring
The company has identified up to $50 million in annualized cost savings, with $30 million already executed. This includes restructuring corporate functions and reducing executive leadership.
Record Ethanol Exports
Ethanol exports are on pace to set a new record of approximately 1.9 billion gallons, with expectations for 2025 to exceed that.
Carbon Capture Progress
Significant progress on carbon capture initiatives with the Tallgrass Trailblazer Project. The company remains on track to begin capturing CO2 in the second half of the year.
Aquaculture Market Penetration
Successful sale to one of the largest aquaculture companies, marking the largest quantity sold to date, with expectations for repeat business.
Strong Cash and Liquidity Position
Company ended the year with $209.4 million in cash and $200.7 million available under working capital revolver.
Lowlights
Fourth Quarter Net Loss
Reported a net loss of $54.9 million or $0.86 per share, impacted by a negative non-cash tax adjustment.
Negative EBITDA for the Quarter
EBITDA for the fourth quarter was negative $18.9 million compared to $44.7 million in the prior year.
Idling of Fairmont Facility
A 120 million gallon ethanol facility in Fairmont was shut down due to market conditions, particularly affected by a short corn crop and elevated basis levels.
Decline in Revenue
Consolidated revenues for the fourth quarter were $584 million, which was $128.4 million or 18% lower than the same period a year ago.
Ethanol Market Oversupply
Market fundamentals were weak with high levels of production and elevated stocks, despite strong export performance.
Company Guidance
In the Green Plains Inc. fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call, the company outlined several strategic initiatives aimed at improving future operating performance. Notably, Green Plains has identified up to $50 million in annualized cost savings, of which $30 million has already been executed. This includes restructuring efforts such as reducing the corporate workforce and optimizing SG&A expenses. The company also reported a net loss of $54.9 million for the quarter, translating to a loss of $0.86 per share. Despite this, Green Plains achieved a positive EBITDA for the full year 2024, amounting to $44.7 million. Plant utilization reached 92% for the quarter, and the company is poised to capture biogenic CO2 in the second half of 2025, signaling a transformative shift in their earnings potential. Additionally, the ethanol market experienced pressure from oversupply, although record exports of 1.9 billion gallons provided a bright spot. The company remains optimistic about the prospects for its protein and corn oil products, particularly with anticipated benefits from carbon initiatives.Green Plains Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Green Plains Announces CEO Departure and Leadership Transition
Neutral
Feb 28, 2025
On February 28, 2025, Green Plains Inc. announced the departure of Todd Becker, its President and CEO for over 17 years, effective March 1, 2025. The company’s Board of Directors has initiated a search for a new CEO and established an Executive Committee to lead in the interim. This leadership transition is part of a broader strategic initiative aimed at business restructuring and cost reduction, with the company having already achieved $30 million in annualized cost reductions and targeting an additional $20 million. The changes are intended to position Green Plains for sustainable and profitable growth.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.