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Gevo (GEVO)
NASDAQ:GEVO
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Gevo
(NASDAQ:GEVO)
64Neutral
Positive Factors
Financial Growth
Gevo is positioned to transform its cash flow profile in 2025 as contribution from Gevo North Dakota begins to reflect in its financials.
Strategic Developments
The company's diversified revenue opportunity and market expansion through projects like Verity, RNG, and carbon sequestration have de-risked its operational profile.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
Gevo announced its 3Q24 results, with revenue of $2.0M compared to $4.5M in 3Q23, marking a 57% year-over-year decline.
Gevo (GEVO) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$289.68M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.62M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.62
Revenue Growth16.59%
EPS Growth-7.74%
CountryUS
Employees103
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength63
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.33
Shares Outstanding239,407,460
10 Day Avg. Volume3,792,400
30 Day Avg. Volume4,617,078
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)18.58
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-6.60
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.25Price Target Upside664.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGevo, Inc. is a renewable chemicals and biofuels company that operates in the clean energy sector. The company is focused on developing and commercializing alternatives to petroleum-based products by using renewable feedstocks to produce sustainable fuels. Gevo's core offerings include isobutanol and renewable jet fuel, which are designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and provide environmentally friendly alternatives to traditional fossil fuels.
How the Company Makes MoneyGevo makes money primarily through the production and sale of renewable fuels and chemicals. The company generates revenue by manufacturing and selling isobutanol, which can be used as a building block for various industrial products and as a fuel additive. Additionally, Gevo produces renewable jet fuel, which is sold to airlines and other partners looking to reduce their carbon footprint. The company leverages strategic partnerships with technology developers, agricultural producers, and fuel distributors to enhance its production capabilities and market reach. Gevo also engages in licensing its technology to other producers, providing an additional revenue stream. Key factors contributing to its earnings include advancements in production technology, government incentives for renewable fuels, and growing demand for sustainable energy solutions.
Gevo Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Gevo faces considerable profitability challenges with negative margins and cash flow issues, but shows signs of revenue growth and a strong equity position, suggesting potential for future recovery if costs are managed effectively.Income Statement
Gevo's financial performance has been challenging, with consistently negative gross profit margins, indicating cost management issues. The company's net profit margin remains deeply negative, reflecting ongoing losses. However, there is a positive revenue growth trend from 2022 to TTM, suggesting potential for future improvement if cost controls are enhanced.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
Gevo's balance sheet shows strong stockholders' equity, with a healthy equity ratio of 83.6% (TTM). The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.01, indicating low leverage. However, the ROE is negative due to persistent net losses, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals negative free cash flow, though the free cash flow deficit has decreased in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting inefficiencies in converting sales to cash. Despite this, there is an improvement in free cash flow growth rate from 2022 to TTM.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 15.59M | 17.20M | 1.18M | 711.00K | 5.31M | 24.45M | Gross Profit |
| -12.42M | -13.56M | -7.52M | -11.45M | -9.69M | -12.28M | EBIT |
| -92.52M | -81.83M | -102.69M | -60.09M | -26.34M | -26.35M | EBITDA |
| -63.44M | -62.83M | -88.95M | -53.82M | -32.13M | -19.22M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -79.51M | -66.22M | -118.58M | -59.38M | -39.15M | -31.41M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 33.73M | 298.35M | 404.53M | 316.17M | 78.34M | 16.30M | Total Assets |
| 107.03M | 650.32M | 700.75M | 666.48M | 152.10M | 93.36M | Total Debt |
| 12.95M | 70.18M | 69.69M | 90.85M | 1.27M | 14.65M | Net Debt |
| -20.79M | -228.17M | -167.43M | 50.01M | -77.07M | -1.65M | Total Liabilities |
| 18.25M | 92.93M | 95.27M | 119.22M | 5.72M | 20.86M | Stockholders Equity |
| 88.79M | 557.39M | 605.48M | 547.25M | 146.38M | 72.50M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -64.17M | -108.17M | -128.40M | -112.37M | -25.24M | -26.83M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -71.13M | -53.72M | -52.61M | -43.54M | -19.34M | -20.84M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -30.23M | 114.13M | 93.39M | -411.62M | -5.91M | -7.46M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -7.03M | -189.00K | 138.56M | 512.85M | 87.28M | 10.86M |
Gevo Technical Analysis
Negative
1.21
Price Trends
1.82
Negative
1.86
Negative
1.36
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.16
Positive
29.79
Positive
24.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.48, below the 50-day MA of 1.82, and below the 200-day MA of 1.36, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.79 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GEVO.
Gevo Risk Analysis
Gevo disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gevo reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gevo Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (46)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $289.68M | ― | -14.78% | ― | 16.59% | -7.74% | |
52 Neutral | $108.07M | ― | -23.38% | ― | -21.54% | 13.34% | |
49 Neutral | $520.99M | ― | -33.54% | ― | 20.29% | -106.22% | |
46 Neutral | $2.64B | -3.89 | -29.36% | 3.33% | 2.89% | -29.66% | |
45 Neutral | $138.70M | ― | -17.27% | ― | -9.13% | 1.93% | |
43 Neutral | $1.58B | ― | -90.88% | ― | -29.45% | -10.79% | |
39 Underperform | $85.94M | ― | 37.38% | ― | 59.51% | -80.53% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GEVO
Gevo
1.21
0.53
77.94%
FCEL
Fuelcell Energy
6.56
-24.34
-78.77%
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
1.40
-0.57
-28.93%
PLUG
Plug Power
1.67
-1.69
-50.30%
AMTX
Aemetis
1.68
-1.62
-49.09%
TSE:BLDP
Ballard Power Systems
1.74
-2.01
-53.60%
Gevo Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 6, 2025 | % Change Since: -3.20% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights Gevo's transformative acquisitions and significant financial commitments, notably from the U.S. Department of Energy, indicating strong future potential. However, the company is still facing operational losses, and some revenue aspects are pending regulatory approval, which tempers the overall outlook.Highlights
Acquisition of Red Trail Energy Assets
Gevo announced the acquisition of Red Trail Energy's low-carbon ethanol and carbon capture sequestration assets in North Dakota, expected to close by Q1 2025. This acquisition is transformative and generated approximately $200 million in revenue in 2023.
Conditional Commitment from the U.S. Department of Energy
Gevo received a $1.63 billion loan facility commitment from the U.S. Department of Energy for its Net-Zero 1 SAF project in South Dakota, marking it as the first large-scale alcohol-to-jet project to receive such a commitment.
Acquisition of Cultivate Agricultural Intelligence, LLC
Gevo acquired Cultivate AI, which is expected to generate $1.7 million in revenue in 2024, enhancing Gevo's carbon accounting and tracking capabilities.
Granted Patents for Ethanol to Olefin Process
Gevo was granted two patents for its breakthrough ethanol to olefin process, further solidifying its technological advancements.
Strong Liquidity Position
Gevo ended Q3 2024 with $292.9 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, reflecting a disciplined approach to financial management.
Lowlights
Loss from Operations
Gevo reported a loss from operations of $24 million in Q3 2024, with a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss of $16.7 million.
Pending Approval for RNG Carbon Intensity Pathway
Revenue from the RNG business was reduced due to holding environmental attributes inventory in anticipation of final carbon intensity pathway approval under California's low carbon fuel standard.
Company Guidance
During the Gevo Q3 2024 earnings call, several key metrics and guidance were shared, reflecting the company's strategic progress and financial outlook. Gevo's acquisition of Red Trail Energy's assets is expected to generate approximately $200 million in revenue and enhance their carbon abatement capabilities. Additionally, a $1.63 billion loan facility from the U.S. Department of Energy was highlighted as a transformative milestone for their Net-Zero 1 project, marking it as the first large-scale alcohol-to-jet project to receive such a commitment. This financial backing is anticipated to support Gevo's plans to scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production and achieve a positive adjusted EBITDA by 2025. The company's financial position remained strong with $292.9 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q3 2024. Operationally, their RNG business generated $2 million in revenue, while strategic investments were made in Cultivate AI, and significant steps were taken to incorporate carbon accounting and tracking solutions. These milestones position Gevo for future growth and reinforce their commitment to advancing low-carbon solutions.Gevo Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Gevo Announces Leadership Change in Accounting Division
Neutral
Nov 13, 2024
Gevo, Inc. announced the retirement of Alisher Nurmat as Vice President Accounting and Treasurer, effective November 21, 2024, with Davaajargal (Sylvia) Gendenjamts stepping in as his successor. Gendenjamts, with extensive experience in corporate accounting and a master’s degree in accounting, will earn an initial annual base salary of $260,000. She is set to participate in the company’s bonus and equity programs, offering fresh leadership for investors interested in Gevo’s financial future.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.