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Global-e Online (GLBE)
NASDAQ:GLBE
US Market

Global-e Online (GLBE) AI Stock Analysis

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Global-e Online

(NASDAQ:GLBE)

65Neutral
Global-e Online demonstrates strong revenue growth and improving cash flow resilience, but ongoing profitability challenges weigh on its financial outlook. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, while valuation metrics highlight risks due to volatility and a lack of profitability. Positive earnings call guidance and strategic expansions offer a promising future outlook if profitability is achieved.
Positive Factors
Growth Potential
Global-e is trading in-line with peers despite demonstrating faster growth, indicating potential undervaluation.
Stock Rating Upgrade
The stock rating for Global-E Online Ltd. has been upgraded from equal-weight to overweight, indicating a more favorable outlook.
Trade Policy
The company is expected to benefit from the current trade policy environment, which could positively impact its growth.
Negative Factors
Consumer Spending Concerns
The market is overly concerned by potential slowing US consumer spending, which represents a small portion of Global-e's GMV and focuses on high-end consumers.

Global-e Online (GLBE) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Global-e Online Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGlobal-E Online Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides a platform to enable and accelerate direct-to-consumer cross-border e-commerce in Israel, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. Its platform enables international shoppers to buy online and merchants to sell from, and to, worldwide. Global-E Online Ltd. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Petah Tikva, Israel.
How the Company Makes MoneyGlobal-e Online generates revenue primarily through a combination of service fees and transaction-based fees. The company charges merchants a service fee for access to its platform's capabilities, which include localization features, payment processing, and logistics solutions. Additionally, Global-e earns a percentage of each transaction processed through its platform, aligning its growth with that of its clients. Strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms and logistics providers further bolster its revenue, enabling seamless integration and expanded service offerings for its clients. The company's ability to enhance conversion rates and customer satisfaction for international shoppers contributes significantly to its financial success.

Global-e Online Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Global-e Online shows strong revenue growth and improving margins, though profitability remains a challenge. A solid balance sheet supports stability with minimal leverage. Robust cash flow performance offsets net losses, suggesting the company is well-positioned for future growth if profitability improves.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Global-e Online has demonstrated robust revenue growth with a 32.1% increase from 2023 to 2024, signaling strong demand and business expansion. Gross profit margin improved to 45.1%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company remains unprofitable with a negative net profit margin of -10.0%. Despite EBITDA turning positive, EBIT remains negative, pointing to ongoing operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company maintains a solid equity base with an equity ratio of 70.7%, reflecting financial stability. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.03, suggesting limited leverage use. Return on equity is negative due to net losses, highlighting profitability concerns despite a strong capital structure.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Impressive free cash flow growth of 57.0% indicates effective cash management and operational efficiency. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at -2.24, demonstrating robust cash generation relative to accounting losses. Free cash flow covers net income, emphasizing cash flow resilience despite net losses.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
752.76M569.95M409.05M245.27M136.38M
Gross Profit
339.43M233.60M158.18M91.43M43.47M
EBIT
-67.93M-137.06M-189.32M-65.66M8.41M
EBITDA
101.61M47.77M-159.91M-65.33M8.65M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-75.55M-133.81M-195.41M-74.93M3.91M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
474.44M317.42M228.20M509.07M91.97M
Total Assets
1.26B1.20B1.16B846.13M347.31M
Total Debt
24.86M23.32M19.82M21.32M4.43M
Net Debt
-225.92M-176.76M-145.21M-427.30M-64.21M
Total Liabilities
370.05M300.38M234.48M150.38M205.81M
Stockholders Equity
893.43M901.98M928.12M695.75M141.50M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
167.06M106.48M73.13M12.87M28.89M
Operating Cash Flow
169.39M108.22M81.48M15.75M29.35M
Investing Cash Flow
-108.96M-55.04M-330.10M-40.49M-24.05M
Financing Cash Flow
3.28M1.99M1.24M398.61M59.36M

Global-e Online Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price35.68
Price Trends
50DMA
48.51
Negative
100DMA
49.38
Negative
200DMA
42.41
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.06
Negative
RSI
31.65
Neutral
STOCH
28.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLBE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.83, below the 50-day MA of 48.51, and below the 200-day MA of 42.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 31.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GLBE.

Global-e Online Risk Analysis

Global-e Online disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Global-e Online reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Global-e Online Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$103.83B54.3351.50%43.56%91.72%
73
Outperform
$2.04T34.9024.29%10.99%91.61%
65
Neutral
$6.05B-8.42%32.08%44.46%
63
Neutral
$5.00B19.69-39.97%2.18%5.77%
WIWIX
61
Neutral
$9.26B71.54-46.79%12.74%327.43%
59
Neutral
$12.26B11.12-0.55%3.78%1.42%-20.63%
57
Neutral
$461.38M-91.78%7.61%59.62%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GLBE
Global-e Online
35.68
-0.62
-1.71%
AMZN
Amazon
192.72
11.75
6.49%
MELI
Mercadolibre
2,048.07
519.12
33.95%
WIX
Wix
166.36
28.95
21.07%
ETSY
Etsy
46.69
-19.21
-29.15%
BIGC
BigCommerce Holdings
5.87
-0.98
-14.31%

Global-e Online Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 19, 2025 | % Change Since: -42.36% | Next Earnings Date: May 26, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial growth, profitability milestones, and strategic expansions. However, challenges such as the impact of the Ted Baker bankruptcy and tariff-related pressures were also noted. Despite these challenges, the company's strong cash flow, profitability, and strategic expansions contribute to an overall positive outlook.
Highlights
Record-Breaking Year for Global-E
Global-E reported a record $1.71 billion in GMV for Q4 2024, up 44% year-on-year, with record revenues of $263 million, up 42% year-on-year. The full year GMV was close to $4.86 billion and revenues were almost $753 million, more than six times the GMV and five and a half times the revenue from 2020.
Achievement of Profitability Milestones
For the first time, Global-E achieved a quarterly Adjusted EBITDA margin above 20% at 21.7% and reached GAAP profitability in Q4 2024. 2025 is expected to be GAAP profitable for the full year, with an anticipated Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20%.
Strong Cash Flow and Financial Position
Global-E generated nearly $130 million in operational cash flows in Q4 2024 and reported a cash and cash equivalents balance of nearly $474 million by the year's end.
Expansion of Global Footprint and Market Offerings
The company expanded its market presence from 9 outbound markets in 2020 to 39 in 2024, and added new verticals including consumer electronics with notable clients like Logitech.
Lowlights
Impact of Ted Baker Bankruptcy
Ted Baker's bankruptcy negatively impacted Global-E's 2024 NDR and GDR rates and contributed to a decrease in the service fee revenue growth rate.
Tariff Challenges
Rising cross-border tariffs imposed by the U.S. and trading partners are expected to lower take rates in 2025 as merchants shift to multi-local strategies.
Potential Impact of De Minimis Exemption Changes
The potential suspension of the U.S. de minimis exemption for duty-free goods could increase costs for merchants and affect consumer demand, although it may also drive more merchants to Global-E's platform.
Company Guidance
During the Global-E earnings call, the company reported record-breaking financial results for the fiscal year 2024, driven by a strong fourth quarter. The guidance provided for 2025 anticipates continued growth with GMV expected to range between $6.19 billion and $6.49 billion, representing over 31% growth at the midpoint. Revenues are projected to be between $917 million and $967 million, marking a 25% increase at the midpoint, although a lower take rate is anticipated due to the adoption of multi-local strategies by merchants in response to rising tariffs. The company also expects to achieve GAAP profitability for the first time in 2025, with Adjusted EBITDA anticipated to grow by over 34% to a range between $179 million and $199 million, achieving the long-term target of a 20% Adjusted EBITDA margin. This growth is attributed to new merchant acquisitions, robust consumer demand, and the strategic expansion into new verticals and markets.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.