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Nexters (GDEV)
NASDAQ:GDEV

Nexters (GDEV) AI Stock Analysis

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Nexters

(NASDAQ:GDEV)

60Neutral
GDEV's overall stock score reflects its mixed financial performance and bearish technical signals. The company shows strengths in profitability and cash flow generation, but faces significant challenges with negative equity, declining revenue, and bearish market momentum. The potential for undervaluation is a positive aspect, but high financial risk and operational challenges need to be addressed for a stronger outlook.

Nexters (GDEV) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Nexters Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKismet Acquisition One Corp is a blank check company.
How the Company Makes MoneyNexters generates revenue primarily through in-game purchases and microtransactions within its mobile and social games. The company offers a range of virtual goods and premium features that players can buy to enhance their gaming experience. Additionally, Nexters may earn revenue from advertising partnerships and collaborations with other gaming platforms or companies, expanding its reach and monetization opportunities.

Nexters Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nexters shows a mixed financial performance. Strong gross profit margins and healthy cash flow generation are offset by a negative revenue growth rate and high financial risk due to negative equity. Operational efficiency is evident, but significant leverage and negative equity require careful management.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Nexters shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin remains strong, suggesting effective cost management. However, the net profit margin improved significantly, indicating better profitability compared to previous years. The revenue growth rate is negative, showing a decline in total revenue compared to the prior period, which could be a concern for sustained growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are decent, showing operational efficiency, but there's room for improvement given the industry standards.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The company's balance sheet reveals high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity, which poses a risk. The debt-to-equity ratio isn't meaningful due to negative equity, indicating high financial risk. The return on equity is not calculable under negative equity conditions, but operational improvements are noted. The company's asset management appears stable, but the negative equity suggests potential financial instability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flows are relatively healthy, with a positive operating cash flow and free cash flow, indicating good cash generation abilities. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative, reflecting a reduction compared to the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio shows efficient conversion of income to cash. The company needs to focus on sustaining its cash flow generation to mitigate balance sheet risks.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
443.23M464.55M479.69M434.09M260.89M93.81M
Gross Profit
292.75M303.86M306.03M297.92M168.34M49.32M
EBIT
54.36M38.36M108.34M127.62M-1.67M-35.76M
EBITDA
62.27M56.68M19.14M4.72M-1.11M-35.47M
Net Income Common Stockholders
48.48M46.12M7.30M-117.44M-751.00K-35.53M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
18.48M156.03M137.14M142.80M84.56M18.48M
Total Assets
0.00320.55M322.04M312.98M211.55M80.47M
Total Debt
0.002.44M1.19M1.93M1.16M4.03M
Net Debt
18.48M-69.36M-85.59M-140.87M-83.40M-13.54M
Total Liabilities
48.57M420.37M470.82M474.03M313.46M129.03M
Stockholders Equity
-48.57M-99.81M-148.78M-161.09M-101.91M-48.57M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
29.26M17.20M115.02M104.08M120.48M14.85M
Operating Cash Flow
29.75M17.95M116.08M105.52M120.62M14.95M
Investing Cash Flow
-5.62M-32.46M-171.78M-2.72M361.00K-345.00K
Financing Cash Flow
-44.99M-1.95M-1.90M-42.98M-56.05M-156.00K

Nexters Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price15.30
Price Trends
50DMA
14.49
Positive
100DMA
18.19
Negative
200DMA
20.06
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.33
Negative
RSI
52.53
Neutral
STOCH
-1.81
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GDEV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.99, above the 50-day MA of 14.49, and below the 200-day MA of 20.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of -1.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GDEV.

Nexters Risk Analysis

Nexters disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nexters reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nexters Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
EAEA
66
Neutral
$35.48B34.6414.04%0.56%-2.99%-0.46%
62
Neutral
$36.24B-51.45%1.00%-148.89%
60
Neutral
$281.05M7.14
-5.57%
58
Neutral
$29.51B-0.64-15.44%4.07%2.03%-50.31%
UU
58
Neutral
$8.81B-20.84%-17.10%21.82%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GDEV
Nexters
15.30
-3.73
-19.60%
EA
Electronic Arts
137.72
4.16
3.11%
TTWO
Take-Two
203.63
59.72
41.50%
U
Unity Software
20.48
-5.61
-21.50%

Nexters Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Nov 14, 2024 | % Change Since: -28.90% | Next Earnings Date: Mar 26, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While there were significant achievements in terms of revenue growth, cash flow, leadership, and successful product launches, these were offset by year-over-year declines in revenue, bookings, net profit, and adjusted EBITDA. The company is focusing on long-term product improvements and geographical expansion, but current financial indicators show areas of concern.
Highlights
Revenue Growth Exceeds Expectations
Revenue for Q3 2024 amounted to $111 million, reflecting a 5% growth quarter-over-quarter, and surpassed analysts' consensus on revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
Cash Flow Increase
Cash flows generated from operating activities increased to $12 million compared to $8 million in Q3 2023, demonstrating effective cash management.
Geographical Expansion Success
Bookings in Europe grew year-over-year, increasing the region’s share of total bookings from 26% to 30%. Notably strong performances were seen in Germany, France, the UK, and Poland.
Leadership Enhancement
Appointment of Olga Loskutova as Chief Operating Officer to guide studios towards achieving strategic goals and fostering sustainable growth.
Successful Launch on Steam
The launch of Pixel Gun on Steam was a huge success, stabilizing with an average of 2,500 to 3,000 concurrent users, and the number is growing month over month.
Lowlights
Year-over-Year Revenue Decline
Revenue for Q3 2024 declined by 9% year-over-year, primarily due to the decline in bookings.
Bookings Decline
Bookings declined by 8% year-over-year to $93 million, affected by reduced in-game events and monetization.
Net Profit Decrease
Net profit in Q3 2024 amounted to $15 million, a decline from $24 million in the same period last year, primarily due to lower revenue and higher marketing spend.
Adjusted EBITDA Decrease
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $16 million, down $13 million year-over-year.
Company Guidance
During the GDEV Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a 5% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, reaching $111 million, despite a 9% decline year-over-year. Bookings declined by 8% year-over-year to $93 million, attributed to strategic product improvements aimed at enhancing player experience and retention. Platform commissions decreased by 13% year-over-year, while marketing investments rose by $9 million to $52 million, aligning with efforts to increase marketing efficiency. The net profit for Q3 2024 was $15 million, down from $24 million the previous year, primarily due to increased marketing spend. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $16 million, reflecting a $13 million decrease year-over-year, although operating cash flows improved to $12 million from $8 million in Q3 2023. The company highlighted strategic geographic expansion, particularly in Europe, where bookings increased the region's share from 26% to 30%. Additionally, GDEV executed a one-for-ten reverse stock split and an at-the-market offering to enhance stock liquidity and market appeal. Overall, GDEV remains focused on sustainable growth through product evolution and marketing investments.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.