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Serco Group plc (GB:SRP)
LSE:SRP

Serco Group plc (SRP) AI Stock Analysis

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Serco Group plc

(LSE:SRP)

70Neutral
Serco Group plc's overall stock score reflects a balance of strengths and challenges. Strong cash flow management and strategic corporate events are promising, but profitability issues and high valuation present notable risks. Technical analysis suggests a neutral trend, indicating a wait-and-see approach may be prudent for investors.

Serco Group plc (SRP) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Serco Group plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSerco Group plc is a leading provider of public services, operating across defense, transport, justice, immigration, healthcare, and citizen services. With a global presence, Serco delivers essential services for governments and international organizations, enhancing public sector operations through innovative solutions and efficient service delivery.
How the Company Makes MoneySerco Group plc generates revenue primarily through long-term service contracts with governments and international organizations. The company's key revenue streams include managing public services such as defense operations, transportation systems, correctional facilities, immigration control, healthcare delivery, and other citizen services. Serco often competes for these contracts through a tender process, and its earnings are influenced by its ability to secure and efficiently manage such contracts. Strategic partnerships with government entities and a focus on operational efficiency play critical roles in its financial performance.

Serco Group plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Serco Group plc showcases strong cash flow management and stable equity, but faces profitability challenges and rising debt levels. The income statement indicates declining net profit margins and inconsistent revenue growth, while the balance sheet reflects increased leverage.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The income statement reveals a mixed performance. The gross profit margin shows stability with a modest increase over recent years. However, the net profit margin declined significantly in the latest year, indicating profitability challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a slight contraction in the latest period. The EBIT margin has seen a noticeable decrease, reflecting operational inefficiencies, while EBITDA margin also fell, indicating pressure on earnings before depreciation and amortization.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet reflects moderate financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio has risen, suggesting increased leverage, which could pose risks if earnings do not improve. Return on equity has decreased, showing reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. However, the equity ratio remains stable, indicating reasonable financial stability and asset management.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow statements indicate strong cash generation. Free cash flow has grown consistently, demonstrating effective cash management and operational efficiency. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, signaling that cash flow generation remains strong relative to accounting profits. The free cash flow to net income ratio also suggests solid cash conversion, despite lower net income.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
4.85B4.79B4.87B4.53B4.42B3.88B
Gross Profit
547.80M518.60M495.50M493.50M468.00M383.00M
EBIT
276.60M130.10M230.60M217.20M216.20M179.20M
EBITDA
304.40M326.90M422.00M382.00M365.20M299.90M
Net Income Common Stockholders
139.00M44.20M202.40M155.40M303.90M133.80M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
62.50M183.00M94.40M57.20M198.40M335.70M
Total Assets
1.55B2.66B2.61B2.75B2.73B2.41B
Total Debt
254.30M806.40M659.90M708.90M807.30M791.40M
Net Debt
191.80M623.40M565.50M651.70M608.90M455.70M
Total Liabilities
1.17B1.82B1.58B1.72B1.73B1.70B
Stockholders Equity
385.40M842.50M1.03B1.03B1.01B713.30M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
347.40M385.00M368.40M307.80M317.80M218.40M
Operating Cash Flow
375.60M419.40M393.10M327.20M349.90M268.50M
Investing Cash Flow
-38.90M-7.40M-5.40M-35.30M-232.30M600.00K
Financing Cash Flow
-300.00M-322.30M-347.90M-436.80M-250.10M-24.70M

Serco Group plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price162.80
Price Trends
50DMA
157.64
Positive
100DMA
153.16
Positive
200DMA
162.40
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.18
Negative
RSI
57.77
Neutral
STOCH
79.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:SRP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 162.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 157.52, above the 50-day MA of 157.64, and above the 200-day MA of 162.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:SRP.

Serco Group plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
GBBAB
74
Outperform
£3.73B19.3444.03%0.71%3.34%481.76%
74
Outperform
£1.63B12.3321.67%3.44%10.41%11.04%
GBRR
72
Outperform
$60.56B23.94
14.70%3.76%
GBSRP
70
Neutral
£1.65B39.044.71%2.22%-0.68%-78.93%
62
Neutral
$4.13B11.175.46%215.76%4.12%-8.54%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:SRP
Serco Group plc
162.80
-14.52
-8.19%
GB:RR
Rolls-Royce Holdings
714.40
300.66
72.67%
GB:BAB
Babcock International
740.50
233.11
45.94%
GB:MGNS
Morgan Sindall
3,470.00
1,249.59
56.28%

Serco Group plc Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Serco Group Announces Managerial Share Transactions
Neutral
Apr 9, 2025

Serco Group plc has announced changes in the share interests of its key managerial personnel due to vesting from the Long-Term Incentive Plan and the Deferred Bonus Plan granted in 2022. The transactions, which involve the sale of shares to cover tax liabilities, reflect the company’s adherence to regulatory requirements and demonstrate the financial management strategies of its leadership. This announcement may impact stakeholders by highlighting the company’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance.

Spark’s Take on GB:SRP Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GB:SRP is a Neutral.

Serco Group plc’s overall stock score is driven by strong cash flow management and strategic corporate initiatives, which are offset by profitability challenges and a high P/E ratio. While recent corporate events bolster the growth outlook, the technical analysis indicates a neutral trend, suggesting investors may benefit from a cautious approach.

To see Spark’s full report on GB:SRP stock, click here.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Serco Group Aligns Executive Incentives with Shareholder Interests
Positive
Apr 7, 2025

Serco Group plc announced changes in the interests of its managerial staff in the company’s ordinary shares, linked to the Deferred Bonus Plan and Long-Term Incentive Plan. The grants, made in early April 2025, involve significant share awards to key executives, reflecting Serco’s commitment to aligning management incentives with shareholder interests. This move is expected to reinforce the company’s strategic objectives and enhance its market positioning by ensuring that its leadership remains motivated and invested in the company’s success.

Spark’s Take on GB:SRP Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GB:SRP is a Neutral.

Serco Group plc’s overall stock score reflects a balance of strengths and challenges. The company’s strong cash flow management and strategic corporate events are promising, but profitability issues and high valuation metrics present notable risks. The technical analysis suggests a neutral trend, indicating a wait-and-see approach may be prudent for investors.

To see Spark’s full report on GB:SRP stock, click here.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Serco Group Announces Share Changes for CFO Under Bonus Plan
Neutral
Mar 31, 2025

Serco Group plc announced changes in share interests for its Group Chief Financial Officer, Nigel Crossley, under the Equity Settled Bonus Plan. The announcement includes the vesting of an award granted in 2022 and the grant of a new award in 2025, highlighting Serco’s commitment to aligning managerial interests with company performance. The transaction reflects Serco’s strategic focus on incentivizing its leadership to drive innovation and support its global government service operations.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Serco Group’s Managerial Share Transaction Announcement
Neutral
Mar 21, 2025

Serco Group plc announced a transaction involving the transfer of ordinary shares by David Eveleigh, Group General Counsel, to his spouse, Katharine Eveleigh. This transaction, valued at £654,302.95, was conducted outside a trading venue and is part of the company’s compliance with the UK Market Abuse Regulation. The announcement highlights the company’s adherence to regulatory requirements and transparency in managerial transactions.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Serco Group Releases 2024 Annual Report and 2025 AGM Notice
Neutral
Mar 20, 2025

Serco Group plc has released its 2024 Annual Report and Accounts along with the 2025 Notice of Annual General Meeting, now accessible on the company’s website and the UK Listing Authority’s National Storage Mechanism. This publication is a routine disclosure that provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, reinforcing its commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance.

Business Operations and Strategy
Wellington Management Increases Stake in Serco Group
Neutral
Mar 17, 2025

Wellington Management International Ltd has increased its stake in Serco Group PLC, crossing the 5% threshold for voting rights attached to shares and financial instruments. This acquisition signifies a notable shift in the ownership structure of Serco, potentially impacting its governance and strategic direction, as Wellington Management is a significant investment management entity.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Wellington Management Adjusts Holdings in Serco Group PLC
Neutral
Mar 14, 2025

Wellington Management Group LLP has adjusted its holdings in Serco Group PLC, with a slight decrease in voting rights from 5.00% to 4.99%. This change reflects a minor shift in the financial instruments and voting rights held by Wellington, which could indicate strategic portfolio adjustments. The announcement may have implications for Serco’s shareholder dynamics but does not significantly alter the company’s market position.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Serco Group PLC Announces Change in Voting Rights
Neutral
Mar 10, 2025

Serco Group PLC, a UK-based company, has announced a change in its voting rights structure due to an acquisition or disposal of voting rights by Wellington Management Group LLP, a US-based investment management firm. The notification reveals that Wellington Management Group now holds 5% of Serco’s voting rights, indicating a significant stake in the company. This change in voting rights could impact Serco’s governance and decision-making processes, potentially influencing its strategic direction and market positioning.

Executive/Board Changes
Serco’s Ian El-Mokadem Joins United Utilities Group’s Board
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

Serco Group plc announced that Ian El-Mokadem, an Independent Non-Executive Director, will join United Utilities Group PLC as a Non-Executive Director and a member of its Audit, Compliance, and Nomination Committees starting June 2025. This move aligns with Serco’s commitment to strengthening its leadership presence across industries, potentially enhancing its strategic influence and stakeholder engagement.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Serco Group Releases 2024 Annual Report and Accounts
Neutral
Feb 27, 2025

Serco Group plc has published its 2024 Annual Report and Accounts, which is now available on the company’s website and will soon be accessible at the UK Listing Authority’s National Storage Mechanism. The report outlines the company’s financial performance and strategic initiatives, providing shareholders with comprehensive insights ahead of the 2025 Annual General Meeting. This publication is a key communication tool for stakeholders, reflecting Serco’s ongoing commitment to transparency and engagement with its investors.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Serco Group Reports Strong 2024 Results and Strategic Growth Plans for 2025
Positive
Feb 27, 2025

Serco Group plc reported strong financial performance for 2024, with revenue reaching £4.8 billion and a 10% increase in underlying operating profit. Despite a goodwill impairment charge in Asia Pacific, the company maintained robust cash flow and a strong order book. Looking forward to 2025, Serco anticipates stable revenue with strategic growth in its North American defense business, bolstered by the acquisition of MT&S from Northrop Grumman. The company is poised to leverage its capabilities in a dynamic global environment, with a record pipeline of potential new work valued at £11.2 billion, ensuring continued growth and value creation for stakeholders.

Business Operations and Strategy
Serco Secures Major UK Armed Forces Recruitment Contract
Positive
Feb 6, 2025

Serco Group plc has been awarded a significant contract by the UK Ministry of Defence to deliver a next-generation recruitment solution for the UK’s Armed Forces. This landmark contract, valued at up to £1.5bn, will consolidate recruitment for the Royal Navy, British Army, Royal Air Force, and Strategic Command, aiming to enhance candidate experience and streamline the recruitment process with a modern, integrated technology approach. The contract reflects Serco’s ongoing strategic partnership with the MOD, highlighting its commitment to recruiting well-trained personnel and addressing both current and future needs of the Armed Forces.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Serco Acquires Northrop Grumman’s US Defense Business
Positive
Jan 30, 2025

Serco Group plc has announced the acquisition of Northrop Grumman’s mission training and satellite ground network communications software business for $327 million. This strategic move is set to significantly enhance Serco’s presence in the US defense market, doubling its revenue and more than tripling its profit in North America. The acquisition will expand Serco’s capabilities in technology-enabled military training and satellite communications, aligning with the US military’s focus on improving warfighting standards. This transaction is expected to increase Serco’s exposure to the defense sector, which will become its largest revenue segment, and will boost its growth potential both in North America and internationally.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.