DividendsThe current 23p/share dividend is seen as sustainable beyond 2027, with cash dividends paid from the second half of 2024 to 2027 amounting to around 60% of the current market cap.
Free Cash FlowSerica is still forecasted to be very FCF-generative, delivering around 120% of its current market cap in equity free cash flow across 2024-2027.
Risk/RewardThe risk/reward for the shares is skewed to the upside, as the share price already discounts much higher windfall taxes from the UK budget.