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Diageo plc (GB:DGE)
LSE:DGE

Diageo (DGE) AI Stock Analysis

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GBDiageo
(LSE:DGE)
64Neutral
Diageo's overall stock score reflects its strong financial foundation and balanced valuation with a reasonable dividend yield. Despite positive developments in sales and market share, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, while increased leverage and tariff challenges could hinder performance. The company's strategic initiatives offer potential upside, but current market conditions introduce significant uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Market Share and Growth
1H25 featured signs of improvement, including market share gains and organic growth in 4/5 regions.
US Market Performance
Market data show further share progress in the US market, which drives approximately 40% of the company's sales.
Negative Factors
Guidance Withdrawal
Diageo withdrew its medium-term guidance for +5-7% organic net sales growth due to macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

Diageo (DGE) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Diageo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDiageo Plc engages in the production and distribution of alcoholic beverages. Its brands include Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal, JeB, Buchanan's, Windsor and Bushmills whiskies, Smirnoff, Ciroc and Ketel One vodkas, Captain Morgan, Baileys, Don Julio, Tanqueray, and Guinness. It operates through the following geographical segments: North America; Europe and Turkey; Africa; Latin America and Caribbean; Asia Pacific; ISC; and Corporate and Other. The company was founded on October 21, 1886 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyDiageo makes money primarily through the production, distribution, and sale of alcoholic beverages. Its revenue streams are largely derived from its extensive portfolio of spirits and beer brands, which are sold across various markets globally. The company capitalizes on strong brand recognition, premium pricing strategies, and a broad distribution network. Additionally, Diageo engages in strategic partnerships and marketing initiatives to enhance brand visibility. The company also benefits from its focus on premiumization, catering to consumer demand for high-quality and luxury products, which often carry higher profit margins. Furthermore, Diageo invests in innovation and product diversification to capture market trends and expand its consumer base.

Diageo Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Breakdown
Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
16.10B17.11B15.45B12.73B11.75B
Gross Profit
9.74B10.21B9.48B7.70B7.10B
EBIT
6.00B4.63B4.41B3.73B2.14B
EBITDA
5.41B5.63B4.93B4.20B4.48B
Net Income Common Stockholders
3.87B4.45B3.94B2.66B1.73B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.11B1.79B2.54B2.87B3.40B
Total Assets
35.97B35.62B36.52B31.95B33.31B
Total Debt
18.62B16.50B16.02B14.73B16.79B
Net Debt
17.49B15.06B13.73B11.98B13.46B
Total Liabilities
26.43B26.33B27.00B23.52B24.87B
Stockholders Equity
7.94B7.82B7.80B6.90B6.77B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
2.06B1.84B2.84B3.03B1.62B
Operating Cash Flow
3.26B3.02B3.94B3.65B2.32B
Investing Cash Flow
-1.44B-1.20B-1.34B-1.09B-805.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-2.46B-2.41B-3.26B-2.79B1.04B

Diageo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2143.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2309.51
Negative
100DMA
2362.47
Negative
200DMA
2410.13
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-45.22
Negative
RSI
41.18
Neutral
STOCH
52.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:DGE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2143 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2145.72, below the 50-day MA of 2309.51, and below the 200-day MA of 2410.13, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -45.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:DGE.

Diageo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
GBABF
76
Outperform
£13.38B9.5513.06%3.32%1.64%44.38%
73
Outperform
£26.03B23.1110.18%3.31%
GBCCL
66
Neutral
£24.60B15.8320.71%12.56%
65
Neutral
£69.35B23.096.18%7.59%-5.19%
GBDGE
64
Neutral
$47.62B16.9448.76%3.77%-3.88%-11.33%
63
Neutral
$20.85B13.27-10.88%7.48%1.13%11.50%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:DGE
Diageo
2,143.00
-637.63
-22.93%
GB:ABF
Associated British Foods
1,851.00
-327.29
-15.03%
GB:BATS
British American Tobacco
3,156.00
1,052.00
50.00%
GB:CCL
Carnival
1,553.50
417.50
36.75%
GB:TSCO
Tesco plc
388.70
118.93
44.09%
GB:ULVR
Unilever
4,617.00
884.44
23.70%

Diageo Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 4, 2025 | % Change Since: -8.04% | Next Earnings Date: Aug 5, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with both positive momentum in sales and market share gains, particularly in Tequila and Guinness, but also highlighted challenges like operating profit decline, tariff impacts, and increased leverage. The company's strategy and investments are showing some positive results, but macroeconomic challenges and tariffs create significant uncertainties.
Highlights
Return to Organic Net Sales Growth
Organic net sales grew by 1% in the first half of fiscal '25, with growth in four out of five regions, including North America.
Market Share Gains
Held or gained market share in 65% of net sales in measured markets, with significant share gains in the U.S., Europe, and Greater China.
Strong Performance in Tequila and Guinness
Tequila organic net sales were up 21%, with Don Julio leading growth. Guinness achieved its 8th consecutive half of double-digit growth, delivering 17% organic net sales growth.
Improved Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow increased by $125 million to approximately $1.7 billion, driven by working capital management.
Positive Price Mix
Four out of five regions delivered positive price mix, driven by Tequila in North America and Guinness in Europe.
Lowlights
Decline in Organic Operating Profit
Organic operating profit declined by 1.2%, mainly due to increased overhead costs including staff costs and strategic investments.
Scotch Sales Decline
Scotch organic net sales declined by 5%, driven by softer industry performance in North America and Greater China.
Impact of Tariffs
Recent U.S. tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico create uncertainty and could impact future growth.
EPS Decline
Pre-exceptional EPS declined by about 10%, mainly due to performance of Moet Hennessy and unfavorable foreign exchange.
Increased Leverage
Leverage ratio increased to 3.1x, above the target range, due to lower EBITDA and previous share buybacks.
Company Guidance
In the first half of fiscal 2025, Diageo reported an organic net sales growth of 1%, with significant contributions from regions like North America, which saw a slight but meaningful improvement. The company maintained or increased market share in 65% of its measured markets, with strong performances from brands like Don Julio and Guinness. Although organic operating profit declined by 1.2% due to increased overheads, gross profit rose by $83 million, aided by easing inflationary pressures. Free cash flow improved by $125 million, reaching approximately $1.7 billion. The company faced challenges like recent tariff announcements affecting 45% of U.S. net sales, particularly impacting tequila and Canadian whiskey. Despite this, Diageo remains focused on driving sustainable top-line growth, enhancing operating leverage, and maximizing shareholder returns through strategic investments and efficiency improvements.

Diageo Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo CFO Engages in Share Transactions
Neutral
Mar 4, 2025

Diageo announced that its Chief Financial Officer, Nik Jhangiani, engaged in transactions involving the release of Ordinary Shares under a Special Recruitment Award and the sale of shares to cover tax liabilities. This notification is in compliance with the UK Market Abuse Regulation and reflects the company’s transparency in disclosing managerial share dealings, potentially impacting investor confidence and stakeholder trust.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

Diageo plc announced its total voting rights and capital structure as of February 28, 2025. The company reported an issued capital of 2,432,425,127 Ordinary Shares, with 207,238,114 shares held in Treasury. The total number of voting rights available to shareholders is 2,225,187,013, which is crucial for determining shareholder interests under regulatory guidelines.

Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Enhances Debt Issuance Program with Prospectus Supplement
Neutral
Feb 18, 2025

Diageo plc, along with its subsidiaries Diageo Finance plc and Diageo Capital B.V., has announced the publication of a supplement to the base prospectus for their debt issuance program, which was approved by the Financial Conduct Authority. This development indicates Diageo’s ongoing efforts to manage its financial instruments and potentially expand its capital-raising capabilities, reflecting its strategic focus on maintaining robust financial operations.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Announces Executive-Associated Share Purchase
Neutral
Feb 14, 2025

Diageo plc has announced a transaction involving the purchase of its ordinary shares by Diana Mobley, associated with Dan Mobley, a member of the Executive Committee. This transaction, compliant with the UK Market Abuse Regulation, involved 2,280 shares purchased at £21.81 each on the London Stock Exchange, potentially reflecting confidence in the company’s market position and future prospects.

Business Operations and Strategy
Diageo Completes Executive Share Transactions Under Incentive Plan
Neutral
Feb 10, 2025

Diageo has announced the completion of share transactions under the Diageo 2001 Share Incentive Plan, involving key executives and members of the executive committee. This initiative allows for the purchase of partnership shares and awards matching shares, enhancing employee investment in the company. By engaging top executives in share transactions, Diageo aims to align management interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting the company’s market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Diageo Reports 1% Organic Sales Growth Amid Market Challenges
Neutral
Feb 4, 2025

Diageo reported a slight decline in net sales due to unfavorable foreign exchange but achieved organic sales growth of 1% in the first half of the fiscal year. Despite challenging market conditions, the company maintained or grew its market share in 65% of measured markets. Notable growth was seen in the North American market, driven by brands like Don Julio and Crown Royal. The company faces uncertainties like tariffs in the US but remains confident about long-term industry fundamentals and strategic investments in digital capabilities and supply chain improvements. The interim dividend remains unchanged at 40.5 cents per share, and the company has removed medium-term guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainties.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Diageo Announces Total Voting Rights for January 2025
Neutral
Feb 3, 2025

Diageo plc announced that as of January 31, 2025, its issued capital consisted of over 2.4 billion Ordinary Shares, with approximately 207 million held in Treasury without voting rights. The total number of voting rights available to shareholders is over 2.2 billion, which is crucial for determining shareholder interests under regulatory guidelines.

Diageo Chairman Purchases Company Shares
Jan 13, 2025

Diageo plc has announced that its Chairman, Javier Ferrán, has purchased 332 ordinary shares at £24.96 each under an arrangement with the company. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, aligns with UK Market Abuse Regulation requirements and is part of the company’s ongoing shareholding activities.

Diageo Announces Share Transactions under Incentive Plan
Jan 13, 2025

Diageo plc has announced transactions related to its 2001 Share Incentive Plan, involving the purchase of partnership shares and the awarding of matching shares. This initiative is part of the company’s efforts to align employee interests with corporate performance, potentially impacting stakeholder perception positively.

Diageo Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Update
Jan 2, 2025

Diageo has announced its total voting rights and capital structure as of December 31, 2024, which includes 2.4 billion Ordinary Shares with voting rights. The announcement informs shareholders about the total number of voting rights available, which is crucial for determining their interest or changes in interest under the FCA’s guidelines.

Diageo Announces Share Transactions Under Incentive Plan
Dec 10, 2024

Diageo plc has announced transactions involving the purchase of partnership shares and the awarding of matching shares under its 2001 Share Incentive Plan. These transactions, conducted by members of the Executive Committee, are aligned with the UK Market Abuse Regulation, and took place on December 10, 2024, including activities on the London Stock Exchange.

Diageo Chairman Increases Stake through Share Purchase
Dec 10, 2024

Diageo PLC announced that its Chairman, Javier Ferrán, has purchased shares under an arrangement with the company, as disclosed in compliance with the UK Market Abuse Regulation. This transaction took place on the London Stock Exchange, involving the purchase of 339 ordinary shares at £24.46 each, highlighting the Chairman’s continued investment in the company, which may signal confidence in Diageo’s future prospects.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.