Carnival (GB:CCL)
LSE:CCL

Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

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Carnival

(LSE:CCL)

59Neutral
Carnival Corporation's stock score of 59 reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook. The company is rebounding well from pandemic lows, showing improved revenue and profitability. However, significant leverage remains a risk. Technical indicators suggest bearish trends, but valuation metrics indicate the stock may be undervalued, offering potential for upside. Focus on debt reduction and sustained financial performance will be crucial for future success.

Carnival (CCL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarnival Corporation & plc, commonly referred to as Carnival, is a global leader in the cruise industry. As the world's largest cruise company, Carnival operates a portfolio of well-recognized cruise brands, including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, and Costa Cruises, among others. The company offers vacation packages to popular destinations worldwide, providing a wide range of experiences from leisure and adventure to luxury travel. Carnival is committed to delivering exceptional vacation experiences while maintaining its focus on safety, sustainability, and innovation.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarnival Corporation & plc generates revenue primarily through the sale of cruise tickets and onboard services across its fleet of ships. The company's revenue model is built on two main streams: ticket sales and onboard spending. Ticket sales include the base fare for the cruise, which can vary significantly based on the length of the cruise, destination, and type of accommodation chosen by passengers. Onboard spending encompasses a variety of additional services and products offered during the cruise, such as dining options, beverage packages, spa treatments, excursions, retail shopping, and casino gaming. Carnival also benefits from partnerships with travel agencies and online booking platforms that facilitate cruise sales. Factors contributing to its earnings include fleet expansion, strategic itineraries, and marketing initiatives aimed at attracting a diverse range of travelers. Additionally, the company focuses on cost management and operational efficiencies to enhance profitability.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Carnival's financial performance shows signs of recovery. Revenue has significantly improved post-pandemic, with TTM revenue reaching $25.4 billion. The gross profit margin is at 35.7%, and net profit margin stands at 8.1%, indicating operational efficiency and profitability. However, a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.09 poses a risk, despite a strong cash flow position with free cash flow growth of 53%. Focus on deleveraging is necessary to ensure long-term stability.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Carnival's income statement shows a significant recovery in revenue from the pandemic lows, with a TTM revenue of $25.4 billion up from $12.2 billion in 2022. Gross profit margin has improved to 35.7%, signaling operational efficiency. The net profit margin stands at 8.1%, reflecting a return to profitability after losses in previous years. However, the revenue growth rate of 1.6% between TTM and 2024 indicates a slower growth pace, and while margins are improving, they remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.09, indicating a leveraged position that could pose risks if interest rates rise. The equity ratio is 19.2%, which reflects a low proportion of equity in the capital structure. Return on equity is at 22.3%, showing efficient use of equity to generate profits. Despite these strengths, the high debt level remains a concern for long-term stability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Carnival's cash flow shows positive signs, with a free cash flow growth of 53.0% from 2024 to TTM, indicating improved cash generation capability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.48 suggests strong cash flow relative to reported earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.97, highlighting effective cash management. These metrics point towards strong liquidity and cash flow management despite the high debt levels.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
25.43B25.02B21.59B12.17B1.91B5.59B
Gross Profit
9.07B9.38B7.28B412.00M-2.75B-2.65B
EBIT
3.84B3.57B1.96B-4.38B-7.09B-8.87B
EBITDA
6.32B6.23B4.37B-2.20B-5.69B-7.12B
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.05B1.92B-74.00M-6.09B-9.50B-10.24B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
833.00M1.21B2.42B4.03B9.14B9.51B
Total Assets
47.71B48.28B49.12B51.70B53.34B53.59B
Total Debt
28.39B28.88B31.89B35.88B34.61B28.38B
Net Debt
27.56B27.67B29.48B31.85B25.67B18.87B
Total Liabilities
38.53B39.03B42.24B44.64B41.20B33.04B
Stockholders Equity
9.18B9.25B6.88B7.06B12.14B20.55B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.99B1.30B997.00M-6.61B-7.72B-9.92B
Operating Cash Flow
5.08B5.92B4.28B-1.67B-4.11B-6.30B
Investing Cash Flow
-2.98B-4.54B-2.81B-4.77B-3.54B-3.24B
Financing Cash Flow
-3.51B-2.58B-5.09B3.58B6.95B18.65B

Carnival Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1137.00
Price Trends
50DMA
1643.43
Negative
100DMA
1733.15
Negative
200DMA
1505.91
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-77.78
Negative
RSI
30.49
Neutral
STOCH
14.13
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CCL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1137 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1380.58, below the 50-day MA of 1643.43, and below the 200-day MA of 1505.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -77.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.13 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:CCL.

Carnival Risk Analysis

Carnival disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carnival Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$2.62B5.2129.34%1.26%18.05%16.71%
GBEZJ
72
Outperform
$3.26B7.1515.85%2.58%13.93%40.22%
GBIAG
69
Neutral
£11.37B5.0558.10%0.86%6.07%0.66%
GBCCL
59
Neutral
£16.53B9.7425.36%10.73%418.37%
59
Neutral
$11.22B10.13-1.22%3.96%1.32%-18.57%
48
Neutral
£168.58M-72.14%15.70%-119.71%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:CCL
Carnival
1,137.00
29.00
2.62%
GB:EZJ
EasyJet
431.50
-132.24
-23.46%
GB:JET2
Jet2 PLC
1,184.00
-319.27
-21.24%
GB:SAGA
Saga plc
117.60
-1.00
-0.84%
GB:IAG
International Consolidated Airlines
238.00
64.28
37.00%

Carnival Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 21, 2025 | % Change Since: -21.61% | Next Earnings Date: Jun 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call indicated strong financial performance and positive future outlooks, driven by record-breaking revenue and booking trends. Despite acknowledging macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, the company has taken steps to mitigate risks and enhance operational efficiency. Overall, the sentiment is positive due to the outweighing highlights.
Highlights
Record-Breaking Revenue and Growth
The company hit first-quarter high watermarks for revenue, EBITDA, operating income, and customer deposits. Net income was $170 million better than guidance, with a robust 7.3% yield increase, and EBITDA reached $1.2 billion, a 40% year-over-year increase.
Strong Demand and Booking Trends
The company achieved historical high prices across all core programs for 2025, with booking volumes for 2026 sailings and beyond reaching an all-time high. Over 80% of the year was on the books at higher prices, with the booking curve farther out on record.
Positive Financial Outlook and Deleveraging Efforts
The company increased its earnings guidance for the year by $185 million, expecting a 30% improvement from 2024. Refinancing efforts are expected to reduce debt by nearly $5 billion over two years, with significant interest expense savings.
Environmental and Operational Achievements
The company is closing in on its 2026 greenhouse gas target with a 19% reduction in carbon intensity compared to 2019. The opening of new destinations like Celebration Key is on track for July, contributing to future growth.
Lowlights
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Volatility
Despite strong performance, the company acknowledges heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility, which could impact future results.
Unplanned Costs and Dry Docks
Unplanned dry docks and charter hire costs associated with the sale of a ship increased expenses, although these were partially offset by cost savings.
Company Guidance
In the recent earnings call, Carnival Corporation & plc highlighted a robust first quarter of 2025, showcasing significant financial achievements. The company reported a remarkable first-quarter revenue, with EBITDA reaching $1.2 billion, marking a nearly 40% year-over-year increase. Operating margins and EBITDA margins also improved by over 400 basis points compared to the previous year, surpassing 2019 levels. Notably, net income exceeded guidance by over $170 million, thanks to strong consumer demand, which led to a 7.3% yield increase. Carnival also raised its full-year yield guidance by 0.5 points to 4.7%, driven by the quarter’s performance. Additionally, the company’s refinancing efforts are expected to bring approximately $100 million to the bottom line this year, contributing to an increase in earnings guidance for the year by $185 million. Looking ahead, Carnival remains optimistic about 2025, expecting yield growth to significantly outpace historical rates and contribute approximately $600 million incrementally to the bottom line, with limited capacity growth. The company is also on track to achieve its 2026 SeaChange financial targets a year early, with ROIC reaching 12% and EBITDA per ALBD more than 50% higher than two years ago.

Carnival Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival plc Announces Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Apr 4, 2025

Carnival plc has announced its current voting rights and capital structure as of March 31, 2025. The company has a total of 217,406,012 issued ordinary shares, with 145,379,374 shares carrying voting rights. This announcement is crucial for shareholders and stakeholders to assess their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival Corporation Reports Improved First Quarter Financials for 2025
Positive
Mar 25, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the filing of its joint Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the first quarter of 2025, revealing unaudited consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP. The report highlights a net loss of $78 million for the quarter, an improvement from the $214 million loss in the same period last year, indicating a gradual recovery in operations. The company’s operating income increased to $543 million from $276 million, reflecting a positive trend in revenue generation and cost management, despite challenges in nonoperating expenses. This financial update is crucial for stakeholders as it demonstrates Carnival’s ongoing efforts to stabilize its financial position and enhance its industry standing.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Carnival Corporation Achieves Record First Quarter Results and Raises 2025 Outlook
Positive
Mar 21, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc reported record-setting financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with revenues reaching $5.8 billion and operating income nearly doubling from the previous year. The company also announced an improved outlook for the full year, driven by strong demand and successful refinancing efforts that reduced debt and interest expenses. The company is on track to achieve its 2026 financial targets a year early, reflecting its robust market positioning and strategic management.

Financial Disclosures
Carnival Corporation & plc Announces First Quarter Earnings Call
Neutral
Mar 11, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc has announced a conference call scheduled for March 21, 2025, to discuss its first quarter financial results. This event is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market position and investor confidence.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival Corporation & plc Releases 2024 Annual Report
Neutral
Feb 28, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc has announced the submission of its 2024 Annual Report to the National Storage Mechanism, making it available for public inspection. This move underscores the company’s commitment to transparency and provides stakeholders with insights into its financial performance and strategic direction.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Announces Stock Transactions Tied to Executive Incentives
Neutral
Feb 20, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced several transactions involving its common stock, related to the vesting of various restricted stock units as part of its 2020 Stock Plan. These transactions include the vesting of management incentive, performance-based, and time-based restricted stock units, as well as shares withheld to cover associated taxes. Such transactions are part of the company’s efforts to align management incentives with shareholder interests, which could impact stockholder value and executive compensation.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Refinances Debt with New Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 18, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the redemption of its $1.0 billion 10.500% senior unsecured notes due 2030 and the launch of a new senior unsecured notes offering to reduce interest expenses. This strategic move aims to refinance existing debt, thereby potentially improving the company’s financial flexibility and lowering costs, which could have positive implications for its market positioning and stakeholders.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Reduces Debt Costs with $2 Billion Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 10, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc has successfully closed a $2.0 billion senior unsecured notes offering at an interest rate of 6.125%, set to mature in 2033. The proceeds from this offering, combined with cash reserves, were utilized to redeem $2.03 billion worth of 10.375% senior priority notes due 2028, resulting in a significant reduction in annual interest expenses by over $80 million and a streamlined capital structure for the company, reflecting a strategic move to enhance financial efficiency and manage future debt obligations.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
P&O Cruises Achieves Record Sales in January with Exciting Offers
Positive
Feb 6, 2025

P&O Cruises announced a record-breaking January, experiencing its highest ever sales volume and an unprecedented number of new bookings, particularly for Norwegian fjords and Caribbean destinations. The company attributes this success to its new TV campaign and notes a trend of guests opting for more luxurious accommodations. In response to this demand, P&O Cruises has introduced limited-time offers, including extra onboard spending money and discounts on drinks packages, aimed at encouraging further bookings and enhancing customer experience.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival plc Updates on Voting Rights and Capital
Neutral
Feb 6, 2025

Carnival plc, in alignment with the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules, reported its voting rights and share capital status as of January 31, 2025. The company has 217,406,012 issued ordinary shares, with 29,718,429 held in treasury and 144,811,311 voting rights available. This update provides shareholders with the necessary information to comply with notification obligations under regulatory rules.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Initiates $2 Billion Notes Offering to Optimize Debt Structure
Positive
Jan 28, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced a financial maneuver to redeem its existing $2.03 billion Senior Priority Notes by launching a new $2.0 billion senior unsecured notes offering. This strategic move aims to reduce interest expenses, simplify the capital structure, and manage future debt maturities, potentially leading to enhanced financial stability and market positioning for the company. The new notes, expected to mature in 2033, will be offered to qualified institutional buyers, and the redemption is contingent upon the successful closing of this notes offering.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival Reports Record Revenues and Sustainability Progress in 2024
Positive
Jan 27, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the filing of their joint Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ending November 30, 2024, with the SEC, confirming previously reported financial results. The company achieved record revenues of $25 billion, a significant increase from the previous year, and saw growth in operating income and onboard spending. Carnival has been focused on reducing debt and enhancing its sustainability efforts, cutting greenhouse gas emissions significantly. The company also highlighted the introduction of new ships and the development of new and enhanced cruise destinations, aimed at attracting new cruise guests and providing unique travel experiences.

Sara Mathew to Step Down from Carnival Corporation & plc Boards
Jan 10, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc, a leading entity in the cruise industry, announced that Sara Mathew will not seek re-election to its board at the 2025 Annual Meetings of Shareholders. This change, effective after the AGM in April 2025, allows Mathew to focus on her other business ventures. The company expressed gratitude for her contributions and impacts on their boards and audit committees, signifying a notable transition in its leadership structure.

Carnival plc Announces Updated Voting Rights and Capital Information
Jan 6, 2025

Carnival plc has announced that as of December 31, 2024, it has 217,401,886 issued ordinary shares, with 29,718,429 held in Treasury. Of the 187,683,457 issued and outstanding shares, certain shares held by Carnival Investments Limited and Carnival Corporation do not have voting rights. Consequently, the total number of voting rights is 144,807,185. This figure is relevant for shareholders and others to calculate their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.