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Carnival (GB:CCL)
LSE:CCL

Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

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GBCarnival
(LSE:CCL)
66Neutral
Carnival Corporation is on a recovery path with strong revenue growth and improved profitability. The company has made notable progress in reducing leverage, although high debt levels remain a concern. Technical indicators suggest bearish trends, but strategic debt refinancing and positive earnings outlook are supportive factors. Overall, the stock presents moderate investment potential, contingent on sustained operational improvements and debt management.

Carnival (CCL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarnival Corporation & plc, commonly referred to as Carnival, is a global leader in the cruise industry. As the world's largest cruise company, Carnival operates a portfolio of well-recognized cruise brands, including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, and Costa Cruises, among others. The company offers vacation packages to popular destinations worldwide, providing a wide range of experiences from leisure and adventure to luxury travel. Carnival is committed to delivering exceptional vacation experiences while maintaining its focus on safety, sustainability, and innovation.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarnival Corporation & plc generates revenue primarily through the sale of cruise tickets and onboard services across its fleet of ships. The company's revenue model is built on two main streams: ticket sales and onboard spending. Ticket sales include the base fare for the cruise, which can vary significantly based on the length of the cruise, destination, and type of accommodation chosen by passengers. Onboard spending encompasses a variety of additional services and products offered during the cruise, such as dining options, beverage packages, spa treatments, excursions, retail shopping, and casino gaming. Carnival also benefits from partnerships with travel agencies and online booking platforms that facilitate cruise sales. Factors contributing to its earnings include fleet expansion, strategic itineraries, and marketing initiatives aimed at attracting a diverse range of travelers. Additionally, the company focuses on cost management and operational efficiencies to enhance profitability.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
25.02B21.59B12.17B1.91B5.59B
Gross Profit
6.83B4.91B412.00M-2.75B-2.65B
EBIT
3.57B1.96B-4.38B-7.09B-8.87B
EBITDA
6.23B4.37B-2.20B-4.79B-7.12B
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.92B-74.00M-6.09B-9.50B-10.24B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.21B2.42B4.03B9.14B9.51B
Total Assets
49.06B49.12B51.70B53.34B53.59B
Total Debt
28.88B31.89B35.88B34.61B28.38B
Net Debt
27.67B29.48B31.85B25.67B18.87B
Total Liabilities
39.80B42.24B44.64B41.20B33.04B
Stockholders Equity
9.25B6.88B7.06B12.14B20.55B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.30B997.00M-6.61B-7.72B-9.92B
Operating Cash Flow
5.92B4.28B-1.67B-4.11B-6.30B
Investing Cash Flow
-4.54B-2.81B-4.77B-3.54B-3.24B
Financing Cash Flow
-2.58B-5.09B3.58B6.95B18.65B

Carnival Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1553.50
Price Trends
50DMA
1838.30
Negative
100DMA
1765.44
Negative
200DMA
1474.46
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-62.65
Positive
RSI
24.94
Positive
STOCH
17.81
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CCL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1553.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1806.22, below the 50-day MA of 1838.30, and above the 200-day MA of 1474.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -62.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.94 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:CCL.

Carnival Risk Analysis

Carnival disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carnival Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$2.86B5.6828.33%1.07%18.05%16.71%
GBEZJ
72
Outperform
$3.61B7.9215.20%2.41%13.93%38.13%
GBCCL
66
Neutral
£24.60B15.8320.71%12.56%
60
Neutral
$13.01B10.450.79%3.53%1.60%-22.47%
48
Neutral
£174.03M-50.56%15.70%-119.71%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:CCL
Carnival
1,553.50
417.50
36.75%
GB:EZJ
EasyJet
478.20
-59.98
-11.14%
GB:JET2
Jet2 PLC
1,331.00
-85.18
-6.02%
GB:SAGA
Saga plc
118.00
-1.20
-1.01%

Carnival Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Dec 20, 2024 | % Change Since: -14.69% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 1, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Carnival Corporation's strong financial performance, record-breaking revenues, and successful cost management. The company showed significant improvement in demand and booking trends, coupled with strategic investments in new destinations. Despite challenges such as geopolitical issues affecting itineraries and potential new charges in Mexico, the overall outlook remains positive with continued strong demand and yield growth anticipated for 2025.
Highlights
Record Revenues and Strong Financial Performance
Carnival Corporation achieved record revenues for the seventh consecutive quarter with full-year revenues hitting an all-time high of $25 billion. Net income improved by over $250 million year-over-year, exceeding expectations by $125 million.
Strong Demand and Booking Trends
The company reported record booking trends and record customer deposits, with prices and occupancy higher for each quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year.
Yield and Cost Improvements
Full-year 2024 yield increased by 11%, with a majority of the increase attributable to higher prices. Unit costs came in 100 basis points better than original guidance due to cost savings initiatives and easing inflation.
Financial Leverage Reduction
Carnival reduced its debt by over $8 billion from its January 2023 peak and achieved a 4.3 times net debt to EBITDA ratio, improving leverage metrics significantly.
Sustainability Achievements
The company achieved a 17.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions intensity versus 2019, on track to achieve a 20% reduction by the end of 2026.
Positive Outlook for 2025
Expectations for 2025 include a yield growth exceeding 4% and a net income improvement of more than $400 million compared to 2024.
Lowlights
Red Sea Itinerary Challenges
Due to geopolitical issues, Carnival had to remove the Red Sea from itineraries, impacting the selling attractiveness for 2025 cruises.
Mexican Passenger Charges
There is uncertainty surrounding additional passenger charges in Mexico, with ongoing discussions with Mexican authorities.
Cost Pressures
2025 cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are expected to rise by 3.7% due to increased dry dock days, inflation, and higher advertising expenses.
Company Guidance
During the Carnival Corporation and PLC Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, several positive metrics were highlighted. The company reported a significant improvement in net income by over $250 million year-over-year, surpassing expectations by more than $125 million. Full-year revenues hit an all-time high of $25 billion, with cash from operations reaching nearly $6 billion. The annual yield increased by 11%, primarily due to higher prices, and ended the year nearly 250 basis points above initial guidance. The company also achieved all-time highs in yields, per diems, EBITDA, and operating income. Furthermore, Carnival's leverage metrics improved significantly, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.3 times, reflecting substantial deleveraging efforts. Looking ahead to 2025, the company anticipates yield growth exceeding 4% and strong booking trends, with advanced bookings at their longest windows on record for North American and European segments.

Carnival Corporate Events

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival Corporation & plc Releases 2024 Annual Report
Neutral
Feb 28, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc has announced the submission of its 2024 Annual Report to the National Storage Mechanism, making it available for public inspection. This move underscores the company’s commitment to transparency and provides stakeholders with insights into its financial performance and strategic direction.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Announces Stock Transactions Tied to Executive Incentives
Neutral
Feb 20, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced several transactions involving its common stock, related to the vesting of various restricted stock units as part of its 2020 Stock Plan. These transactions include the vesting of management incentive, performance-based, and time-based restricted stock units, as well as shares withheld to cover associated taxes. Such transactions are part of the company’s efforts to align management incentives with shareholder interests, which could impact stockholder value and executive compensation.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Refinances Debt with New Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 18, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the redemption of its $1.0 billion 10.500% senior unsecured notes due 2030 and the launch of a new senior unsecured notes offering to reduce interest expenses. This strategic move aims to refinance existing debt, thereby potentially improving the company’s financial flexibility and lowering costs, which could have positive implications for its market positioning and stakeholders.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Reduces Debt Costs with $2 Billion Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 10, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc has successfully closed a $2.0 billion senior unsecured notes offering at an interest rate of 6.125%, set to mature in 2033. The proceeds from this offering, combined with cash reserves, were utilized to redeem $2.03 billion worth of 10.375% senior priority notes due 2028, resulting in a significant reduction in annual interest expenses by over $80 million and a streamlined capital structure for the company, reflecting a strategic move to enhance financial efficiency and manage future debt obligations.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
P&O Cruises Achieves Record Sales in January with Exciting Offers
Positive
Feb 6, 2025

P&O Cruises announced a record-breaking January, experiencing its highest ever sales volume and an unprecedented number of new bookings, particularly for Norwegian fjords and Caribbean destinations. The company attributes this success to its new TV campaign and notes a trend of guests opting for more luxurious accommodations. In response to this demand, P&O Cruises has introduced limited-time offers, including extra onboard spending money and discounts on drinks packages, aimed at encouraging further bookings and enhancing customer experience.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival plc Updates on Voting Rights and Capital
Neutral
Feb 6, 2025

Carnival plc, in alignment with the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules, reported its voting rights and share capital status as of January 31, 2025. The company has 217,406,012 issued ordinary shares, with 29,718,429 held in treasury and 144,811,311 voting rights available. This update provides shareholders with the necessary information to comply with notification obligations under regulatory rules.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Corporation Initiates $2 Billion Notes Offering to Optimize Debt Structure
Positive
Jan 28, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced a financial maneuver to redeem its existing $2.03 billion Senior Priority Notes by launching a new $2.0 billion senior unsecured notes offering. This strategic move aims to reduce interest expenses, simplify the capital structure, and manage future debt maturities, potentially leading to enhanced financial stability and market positioning for the company. The new notes, expected to mature in 2033, will be offered to qualified institutional buyers, and the redemption is contingent upon the successful closing of this notes offering.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival Reports Record Revenues and Sustainability Progress in 2024
Positive
Jan 27, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc announced the filing of their joint Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ending November 30, 2024, with the SEC, confirming previously reported financial results. The company achieved record revenues of $25 billion, a significant increase from the previous year, and saw growth in operating income and onboard spending. Carnival has been focused on reducing debt and enhancing its sustainability efforts, cutting greenhouse gas emissions significantly. The company also highlighted the introduction of new ships and the development of new and enhanced cruise destinations, aimed at attracting new cruise guests and providing unique travel experiences.

Sara Mathew to Step Down from Carnival Corporation & plc Boards
Jan 10, 2025

Carnival Corporation & plc, a leading entity in the cruise industry, announced that Sara Mathew will not seek re-election to its board at the 2025 Annual Meetings of Shareholders. This change, effective after the AGM in April 2025, allows Mathew to focus on her other business ventures. The company expressed gratitude for her contributions and impacts on their boards and audit committees, signifying a notable transition in its leadership structure.

Carnival plc Announces Updated Voting Rights and Capital Information
Jan 6, 2025

Carnival plc has announced that as of December 31, 2024, it has 217,401,886 issued ordinary shares, with 29,718,429 held in Treasury. Of the 187,683,457 issued and outstanding shares, certain shares held by Carnival Investments Limited and Carnival Corporation do not have voting rights. Consequently, the total number of voting rights is 144,807,185. This figure is relevant for shareholders and others to calculate their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

Carnival Corporation Reports Record 2024 Results, Forecasts Growth
Dec 20, 2024

Carnival Corporation & plc reported record financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, with revenues reaching an all-time high of $25 billion, driven by strong demand and pricing strategies. The company achieved significant growth in net income, operating income, and adjusted EBITDA, surpassing its previous guidance. With a robust booking position for 2025 and efforts to enhance cruise travel awareness, Carnival is set for continued growth, expecting a 20 percent increase in earnings in 2025 and reaching its 2026 SEA Change EBITDA target a year early. The company also made progress in sustainability, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and food waste, while continuing to finance its newbuild program at favorable rates.

Carnival Corporation to Discuss Q4 Earnings in Upcoming Conference Call
Dec 11, 2024

Carnival Corporation & plc has announced a scheduled conference call with analysts to discuss its fourth quarter financial results on December 20, 2024. This announcement signals transparency and ongoing communication with stakeholders, potentially influencing market perceptions and investor confidence in the company’s financial health.

Carnival plc Announces Voting Rights Update
Dec 5, 2024

Carnival plc reports a significant total of 144,807,185 voting rights for its shareholders, as of November 30, 2024. This figure excludes shares held by Carnival Investments Limited and Carnival Corporation, which are non-voting. Investors should use this number to assess their required notifications under regulatory rules.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.