Admiral (ADM) AI Stock Analysis

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Admiral

(LSE:ADM)

80Outperform

Admiral Group shows a strong overall financial position with robust revenue growth and profitability. The technical analysis indicates positive momentum, while the valuation is attractive due to a reasonable P/E ratio and high dividend yield. The earnings call reinforces the company's positive trajectory with record profitability and strategic growth, although regulatory challenges and international market issues present some risks.

Admiral (ADM) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

£9.25B

Dividend Yield4.07%

Average Volume (3M)732.43K

Price to Earnings (P/E)13.9

Beta (1Y)0.45

Revenue Growth34.86%

EPS Growth95.18%

CountryUK

Employees15,432

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength86

IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.17

Shares Outstanding306,304,700

10 Day Avg. Volume915,807

30 Day Avg. Volume732,434

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.15

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)2.30

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)17.30

P/FCF Ratio13.60

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

3,241.86p

Price Target Upside5.26% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering7

Admiral Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAdmiral Group plc is a UK-based financial services company primarily engaged in the provision of car insurance. Founded in 1993 and headquartered in Cardiff, Wales, Admiral operates in several countries, including Spain, Italy, France, and the United States. The company offers a variety of insurance products, with a focus on motor insurance, home insurance, and travel insurance. Admiral is known for its multi-brand strategy, offering its products under several brands such as Admiral, Bell, Elephant, and Diamond.

How the Company Makes MoneyAdmiral Group plc generates revenue primarily through the sale of insurance policies. The company's core revenue stream is its car insurance segment, which accounts for the majority of its earnings. Admiral earns money by collecting premiums from policyholders and investing these premiums to generate additional income. The company also benefits from underwriting profits, which occur when the premiums collected exceed the claims and expenses paid. Additionally, Admiral receives revenue from ancillary products and services, such as fees for policy adjustments and add-ons. The company leverages its strong data analytics capabilities to assess risk accurately, enabling competitive pricing and maintaining profitability. Strategic partnerships with reinsurers help Admiral manage risk and capital requirements effectively.

Admiral Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Cash Flow

TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.55B	3.55B	1.52B	1.56B	1.30B	1.23B
	Gross Profit
4.50B	3.91B	1.52B	1.56B	1.30B	1.23B
	EBIT
577.70M	489.70M	493.50M	731.50M	627.70M	523.90M
	EBITDA
644.60M	548.60M	429.20M	776.20M	837.20M	723.90M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
400.90M	338.00M	286.50M	593.50M	528.80M	432.40M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.14B	3.14B	297.00M	372.70M	272.50M	281.70M
	Total Assets
5.90B	7.10B	6.22B	6.18B	5.76B	5.51B
	Total Debt
1.21B	1.21B	1.03B	776.20M	611.40M	667.20M
	Net Debt
857.90M	857.90M	730.60M	403.50M	313.20M	385.50M
	Total Liabilities
4.91B	6.10B	5.27B	4.78B	4.64B	4.60B
	Stockholders Equity
991.80M	991.80M	954.20M	1.41B	1.11B	909.40M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
956.90M	203.10M	210.90M	468.30M	732.60M	389.30M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.11B	279.00M	309.50M	537.50M	775.70M	422.90M
	Investing Cash Flow
-861.60M	-75.90M	29.30M	74.70M	-226.80M	-232.30M
	Financing Cash Flow
-326.20M	-171.80M	-399.70M	-544.60M	-481.30M	-292.50M

Admiral Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AV	81 Outperform	£13.31B	21.21	5.48%	6.89%	-1.13%	-38.11%
ADM	80 Outperform	£9.25B	13.95	56.17%	4.07%	34.86%	95.18%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$13.21B	9.26	9.39%	4.87%	16.14%	-8.87%
DLG	63 Neutral	£3.47B	23.76	5.97%	2.25%	26.11%	-29.43%
PHNX	62 Neutral	£5.37B	―	-60.34%	9.92%	-6.33%	―
LGEN	53 Neutral	£13.22B	78.79	4.06%	9.06%	-21.56%	-61.14%
MNG	52 Neutral	$4.31B	30.42	-10.00%	10.74%	28.69%	-220.08%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GB:ADM

Admiral

3,080.00

484.28

18.66%

GB:AV

Aviva plc

497.80

67.82

15.77%

GB:DLG

Direct Line Insurance

266.00

78.13

41.59%

GB:LGEN

Legal & General

230.60

1.79

0.78%

GB:PHNX

Phoenix Group Holdings

547.00

85.98

18.65%

GB:MNG

M&G Plc

181.85

-1.28

-0.70%

Admiral Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 6, 2025 | % Change Since: 6.17% | Next Earnings Date: Aug 14, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a strong performance for Admiral Group in 2024, marked by record profitability, growth in customer base, and successful technological advancements. However, challenges remain in specific international markets like Italy and regulatory pressures in the UK. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the challenges.

Highlights

Record Turnover and Customer Growth

2024 reported a 28% turnover growth, with a 14% increase in customer base and higher average premiums than 2023.

All-Time High Group Profitability

Group profitability reached GBP 839 million, driven by UK Motor insurance which delivered close to GBP 1 billion in profits.

Successful Technological Advancements

Strengthened capabilities in data and AI with successful completion of relevant technology projects.

Strong Solvency Position

The solvency ratio is over 200%, showcasing strong capital positioning.

Admiral Money Growth

Admiral Money saw a 23% growth in outstanding balances and a 30% increase in profit.

International Success in France and Spain

L'olivier in France and Admiral Seguros in Spain showed robust performance with improved combined ratios.

Turnaround in U.S. Operations

Elephant in the U.S. achieved a profit of $80 million, a significant improvement from last year's $24 million loss.

Lowlights

Challenges in ConTe, Italy

ConTe reported a GBP 23 million loss due to high BI inflation and adverse loss ratio development.

Profit Commission Constraints

Profit commission revenue for 2024 was lower than 2023 due to restricted recognition on profitable underwriting years.

Regulatory Challenges in the UK

New government task force set up to address rising average premiums in UK Motor insurance.

Company Guidance

The call provided comprehensive guidance on Admiral Group's performance and strategic direction for 2024. Key metrics highlighted include a 28% increase in turnover and a 14% growth in customer base, leading to a record group profitability of GBP 839 million, with UK Motor insurance contributing nearly GBP 1 billion in profits. The call also noted a 56% return on equity and a solvency ratio of over 200%. Admiral Money reported a 23% growth in outstanding balances and a profit increase of 30%. The company maintained a strong capital position with a full-year dividend of 192p per share, which is a 90% increase from 2023. Additionally, the call detailed a focus on expanding capabilities in data and AI, and a strategic move towards using third-party capital in Admiral Money to enhance growth and profitability. Looking forward, Admiral plans to continue disciplined underwriting and adapt to evolving market conditions, with expectations for softer market conditions in 2025 but sustained profitability.

Admiral Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Admiral Group Announces AGM and Publishes Annual Report

Neutral

Mar 31, 2025

Admiral Group plc has announced its upcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM) scheduled for May 9, 2025, and has published its Annual Report and Accounts for the year ending December 31, 2024. The report, prepared in accordance with European Single Electronic Format (ESEF) reporting requirements, is available on the company’s website and the National Storage Mechanism, indicating the company’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Admiral Group Announces Board Changes with Retirement of Justine Roberts

Neutral

Mar 31, 2025

Admiral Group Plc announced the retirement of Justine Roberts, who has served as an independent Non-executive Director for nine years. Her departure will be effective from June 18, 2025, and she has been acknowledged for her significant contributions to the company. Andy Crossley will take over as the Senior Independent Director and join the Nomination and Governance Committee, while Fiona Muldoon will join the Group Risk Committee. The company is also in the process of recruiting a new Non-executive Director, indicating ongoing strategic adjustments within its governance structure.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Admiral Group Awards Shares to Key Executives

Neutral

Mar 13, 2025

Admiral Group plc has announced the award of 59 ordinary shares each to several key executives under the Admiral Group Approved Share Incentive Plan. This move reflects the company’s commitment to aligning the interests of its leadership with those of its shareholders, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder confidence.

Business Operations and Strategy

Admiral Group Announces Share Vesting for International Manager

Neutral

Mar 12, 2025

Admiral Group plc announced the vesting of 72 ordinary shares awarded to Costantino Moretti, Head of International Insurance, under the Share Incentive Plan for international managers. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to incentivizing its managerial team, potentially impacting its operational dynamics and stakeholder interests.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Admiral Group Reports Robust 2024 Financial Performance Amid Strategic Growth

Positive

Mar 6, 2025

Admiral Group reported a strong financial performance for 2024, with a 90% increase in profit before tax and a 28% rise in turnover. The company’s success was largely driven by its UK Motor business, supported by favorable market conditions and strategic pricing adjustments. Admiral’s commitment to sustainability was highlighted by its upgraded MSCI ESG score and the publication of its Net Zero Transition Plan. Despite economic uncertainties, Admiral remains focused on leveraging its competitive advantages and digital capabilities to drive future growth and maintain its position as a leading insurer.

Business Operations and Strategy

Admiral Group Plc Embraces Digital Communication with Shareholders

Positive

Mar 3, 2025

Admiral Group Plc has announced a shift towards electronic communications for its shareholders, moving away from traditional hard copy mailings. This change is aimed at streamlining communication processes and enhancing efficiency, reflecting a broader industry trend towards digitalization. The initiative is expected to improve shareholder engagement and reduce environmental impact, aligning with modern corporate governance practices.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.