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Anglo American (GB:AAL)
:AAL

Anglo American (AAL) AI Stock Analysis

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Anglo American

(OTC:AAL)

56Neutral
Anglo American's stock is moderately positioned, reflecting financial challenges with a net loss and mixed technical signals. Strategic actions from the earnings call, such as cost savings and asset sales, provide a positive outlook. However, the valuation is constrained by a negative P/E ratio, mitigated by a reasonable dividend yield. Overall, the company is navigating challenges with a focus on long-term growth.
Positive Factors
Asset Sale
The sale of Anglo's nickel business is viewed as a positive move given the ongoing uncertainty regarding the nickel market.
Financial Performance
The upfront cash of $350m from the sale strengthens Anglo's balance sheet.
Restructuring Progress
Anglo's ongoing restructuring progress is encouraging and has been a catalyst for the shares.
Negative Factors
Asset Impairments
There is a risk of further asset impairments due to the ongoing uncertainty regarding the nickel market.
Divestment Challenges
The real challenge for Anglo will be in divesting the remaining businesses, especially De Beers.

Anglo American (AAL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Anglo American Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAnglo American (AAL) is a globally diversified mining company with a portfolio spanning precious metals, base metals, and bulk commodities. It operates through various segments, including De Beers, Copper, Platinum Group Metals, Iron Ore, Nickel, and Coal. The company is committed to sustainable and responsible mining practices while delivering superior value to its stakeholders. Its operations are strategically located across Africa, Europe, South America, North America, Australia, and Asia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAnglo American makes money primarily by extracting and selling a variety of minerals and metals. The company's revenue model is centered around its mining operations, which include the exploration, extraction, and processing of natural resources. Key revenue streams include the sale of platinum group metals through its subsidiary, Platinum Group Metals; diamond sales via its 85% ownership in De Beers; and revenue from its operations in copper, nickel, and iron ore. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its production capabilities and market reach. Additionally, fluctuations in commodity prices, driven by global demand and supply factors, significantly influence Anglo American's earnings.

Anglo American Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Anglo American's financial performance in 2024 is mixed. Despite a robust gross profit margin, the company faces a net loss due to decreased revenue and high operating expenses. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a stable equity position. Cash flow is positive but challenged by high capital expenditures, indicating the need for careful financial management.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows significant fluctuations in profitability. The company's revenue decreased from the previous year, leading to a negative EBIT and net loss in 2024. The gross profit margin remains high at 100% due to revenue being equal to gross profit. However, the net profit margin is negative, highlighting the financial challenges faced by the company.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a stable equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88 in 2024, indicating moderate leverage. Stockholders' equity decreased, and the return on equity turned negative due to the net loss. The equity ratio stands at 32%, showing a balanced asset financing structure.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
The cash flow statement reveals a healthy operating cash flow, but free cash flow growth is negative due to higher capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is misleading due to the net loss, yet operating cash remains positive, suggesting some underlying stability.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
29.44B27.29B30.65B35.12B41.55B25.45B
Gross Profit
11.87B27.29B15.04B21.82B28.30B15.91B
EBIT
6.45B-228.00M3.90B10.90B17.31B6.61B
EBITDA
9.39B3.32B7.27B12.44B19.73B8.62B
Net Income Common Stockholders
-1.65B-3.07B283.00M4.51B8.56B2.09B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
6.58B8.20B5.60B8.46B9.12B7.53B
Total Assets
52.20B64.87B66.54B67.41B65.98B62.53B
Total Debt
8.97B18.21B16.91B14.37B12.86B13.51B
Net Debt
2.40B10.04B10.82B5.95B3.79B5.99B
Total Liabilities
22.36B36.33B34.93B33.38B31.21B29.77B
Stockholders Equity
23.60B20.76B25.06B27.36B27.82B25.82B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.82B2.49B484.00M3.57B10.99B1.97B
Operating Cash Flow
7.87B8.10B6.50B9.77B16.72B6.62B
Investing Cash Flow
-5.86B-5.13B-5.56B-5.82B-5.56B-4.74B
Financing Cash Flow
-1.34B-840.00M-3.22B-4.37B-9.36B-716.00M

Anglo American Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2255.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2389.48
Negative
100DMA
2384.38
Negative
200DMA
2325.83
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-21.76
Negative
RSI
42.28
Neutral
STOCH
47.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:AAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2255 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2326.05, below the 50-day MA of 2389.48, and below the 200-day MA of 2325.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -21.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:AAL.

Anglo American Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (47)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
GBRIO
77
Outperform
£80.98B8.5420.80%7.11%-3.39%11.60%
66
Neutral
£32.25B19.9829.63%2.01%1.84%-5.54%
GBAAL
56
Neutral
£30.16B-13.39%2.76%-13.16%-1091.54%
47
Neutral
$2.66B-3.50-23.70%3.28%3.70%-26.83%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:AAL
Anglo American
2,255.00
366.23
19.39%
GB:RIO
Rio Tinto
4,757.00
56.14
1.19%
FERG
Ferguson PLC
162.33
-51.72
-24.16%

Anglo American Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 20, 2025 | % Change Since: -4.13% | Next Earnings Date: Jul 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Anglo American's earnings call reflects a strategic transformation with significant achievements in cost savings, operational efficiency, and strategic partnerships. However, challenges remain in safety and certain market segments, such as diamonds. Despite these challenges, the company's focus on core segments and operational excellence suggests a positive trajectory.
Highlights
Stable EBITDA Margins Despite Price Drop
Despite a 10% decline in basket prices, Anglo American maintained stable EBITDA margins at 30%, with a full year EBITDA of $8.5 billion.
Significant Cost Savings Achieved
Achieved cost savings of $1 billion in 2024, reaching a $1.3 billion run rate, ahead of schedule, with plans to reach $1.8 billion by the end of 2025.
Successful Portfolio Simplification
Agreed on the sale of the steelmaking coal business for up to $4.8 billion and nickel business for up to $500 million, enhancing company focus on core segments.
Strong Operational Performance in Key Segments
Delivered production guidance across all businesses, with strong performance in copper and iron ore, leading to higher margins and returns.
Positive Developments in Sustainability and Safety
Achieved a 28% improvement in injury rates over two years, marking the best-ever full-year performance for lost-time injury frequency rates.
Innovative Partnership with Codelco
Entered into a partnership with Codelco to develop a single mine plan for Los Bronces and Andina, expected to create $5 billion of pre-tax value with no significant capital expenditure.
Lowlights
Workplace Fatalities
Reported three workplace fatalities in 2024, underscoring ongoing challenges in achieving a completely safe work environment.
Challenges in the Diamond Market
De Beers faced a challenging year with rough diamond sales falling sharply due to high midstream inventory levels and depressed consumer demand in China.
Impact of Lower Commodity Prices
Revenue decreased by 12% due to a 10% reduction in basket price, impacting overall financial performance despite cost-saving measures.
Restructuring Challenges
The company underwent significant restructuring, including a 19% reduction in Kumba and a 15% reduction in PGMs operational headcount, impacting employees and communities.
Company Guidance
In the call, Anglo American provided detailed guidance on its financial and operational performance for 2024 and beyond. The company maintained its EBITDA margins at 30% despite a 10% decline in basket prices, resulting in a full-year EBITDA of $8.5 billion. Cost savings were significant, amounting to $1 billion realized in 2024, with a further $1.8 billion on a run rate basis targeted by the end of 2025. The company's net debt remained flat at $10.6 billion, and a final dividend of $0.22 was recommended, bringing the total 2024 dividend to $0.64 per share. Production guidance for 2025 and 2026 remained largely unchanged, with a new guidance for 2027 aligning with prior expectations. The company also announced strategic moves, including a $4.8 billion sale of its steelmaking coal business and a $500 million sale of its nickel assets, while focusing on value-accretive growth in copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients. The transformation aims to create a higher-margin, higher-return business, with a focus on operational excellence and a strategic partnership with Codelco expected to create $5 billion in pre-tax value. Overall, Anglo American is poised for a stronger financial position and enhanced shareholder value.

Anglo American Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial Disclosures
Anglo American Announces 2025 AGM Details and Annual Report Release
Neutral
Mar 24, 2025

Anglo American PLC has announced the publication of its Notice of the 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM), scheduled for April 30, 2025, at The Mermaid London and virtually via the Lumi platform. The company has also released its Integrated Annual Report for the year ending December 31, 2024. This announcement is significant for shareholders as it outlines key dates and procedures for participation in the AGM, reflecting the company’s commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Anglo American Executives Engage in Share Incentive Transactions
Neutral
Mar 18, 2025

Anglo American plc announced transactions involving its Ordinary Shares by Directors and Persons Discharging Managerial Responsibilities (PDMRs) under its Share Incentive Plan. This plan, approved by UK HM Revenue & Customs, allows employees to acquire shares through salary deductions, matched by the company. The transactions, involving key executives such as the Chief Executive and Finance Director, reflect ongoing efforts to align employee interests with company performance, potentially impacting shareholder value and market perception.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Anglo American Platinum’s Mogalakwena Mine Achieves IRMA 50 Standard
Positive
Mar 13, 2025

Anglo American Platinum’s Mogalakwena mine in South Africa has achieved an IRMA 50 level of performance in its first assessment against the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance’s (IRMA) standards. This milestone reflects the company’s commitment to sustainability and transparency in platinum group metals production. The achievement marks the completion of IRMA audits for all four of Anglo American Platinum’s mines, positioning the company as a leader in responsible mining practices. This accomplishment is expected to enhance trust among stakeholders, including shareholders and customers, by demonstrating an ethical value chain for its metals.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Anglo American Announces Early Results of Tender Offers for Notes
Neutral
Mar 12, 2025

Anglo American Capital PLC announced the pricing and early acceptance results of its capped tender offers for certain U.S. dollar and Euro-denominated notes due between 2027 and 2029. The company increased the maximum tender amounts for both Pool 1 and Pool 2 notes to $500 million each, accepting notes based on priority levels and prorating where necessary. This financial maneuver is part of Anglo American’s strategy to manage its debt profile effectively, potentially impacting its financial stability and stakeholder interests.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Anglo American Announces Early Results of Note Tender Offers
Positive
Mar 12, 2025

Anglo American Capital plc announced the early participation results of its tender offers for certain U.S. Dollar and Euro-denominated notes due between 2027 and 2029. The company intends to increase the maximum tender amounts for both pools of notes, aiming for a total consideration of approximately $500 million for each pool. This strategic move is expected to optimize the company’s debt profile and enhance financial flexibility, potentially impacting stakeholders by improving the company’s financial stability.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Anglo American Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

Anglo American plc has announced that as of February 28, 2025, the company’s issued share capital comprises 1,337,577,913 ordinary shares, with no shares held in Treasury, resulting in the same number of total voting rights. This update is crucial for shareholders and others with notification obligations under the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s rules, as it affects the calculations for determining changes in their interests in the company.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Anglo American Releases 2024 Annual Reports and Announces 2025 AGM
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

Anglo American has published its 2024 Integrated Annual Report, Sustainability Report, Ore Reserves and Mineral Resources Report, and Tax and Economic Contribution Report. These documents are available on the company’s website and have been submitted to the Financial Conduct Authority’s National Storage Mechanism. The company has also announced that its 2025 Annual General Meeting will take place on April 30, 2025, with the notice to be published on March 24, 2025. This release underscores Anglo American’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance, potentially impacting its stakeholders by providing comprehensive insights into its operations and sustainability efforts.

Business Operations and Strategy
Norges Bank Increases Stake in Anglo American
Neutral
Feb 27, 2025

Anglo American plc has announced a change in the voting rights held by Norges Bank, which has increased its stake in the company. As of February 24, 2025, Norges Bank holds 3.061710% of the voting rights, up from a previous 2.918070%. This change reflects a strategic adjustment in the bank’s investment in Anglo American, potentially impacting the company’s shareholder dynamics and market perception.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Anglo American Announces Share Vesting and Sales for Executives
Neutral
Feb 26, 2025

Anglo American plc announced the vesting of shares under its Bonus Share Plan, Long Term Incentive Plan, and Non-Cyclical Share Awards Plan for a director and PDMRs. The shares were released and partially sold to cover withholding taxes. The vesting percentages were determined based on performance conditions, with some shares not meeting the criteria and thus lapsing. The transactions reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive compensation with performance, impacting stakeholders by demonstrating transparency and adherence to regulatory requirements.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Anglo American Launches Capped Tender Offer for Debt Optimization
Neutral
Feb 26, 2025

Anglo American Capital plc has announced a capped tender offer for certain U.S. Dollar and Euro-denominated notes due between 2027 and 2029. This strategic move aims to manage the company’s gross debt portfolio by targeting near-dated maturities, thereby optimizing financial operations and potentially enhancing market positioning. The tender offer involves two separate pools of notes, each with a maximum tender amount of $475 million, and is part of the company’s proactive debt management strategy, which includes the cancellation and retirement of accepted notes.

Business Operations and Strategy
Anglo American’s De Beers Secures Long-term Diamond Partnership with Botswana
Positive
Feb 25, 2025

Anglo American announced that De Beers Group and the Government of Botswana have signed new agreements for a 10-year Sales Agreement and a 25-year extension of the Mining Licences for Debswana, a joint venture operating diamond mines in Botswana. This partnership secures De Beers’ leadership position and provides long-term stability, supporting the recovery of the rough diamond market and marking a critical step towards De Beers’ future as an independent company.

Business Operations and Strategy
Anglo American and Codelco Join Forces to Boost Copper Production in Chile
Positive
Feb 20, 2025

Anglo American has signed a memorandum of understanding with Codelco to implement a joint mine plan for their adjacent Los Bronces and Andina copper mines in Chile. This collaboration aims to increase copper production with minimal additional capital, projecting a significant pre-tax value uplift of at least $5 billion. The partnership will form a new operating company to manage the joint mine plan, optimizing resources while allowing both companies to maintain separate ownership of their assets. This venture is expected to enhance Anglo American’s growth in copper production and contribute to the global transition towards a decarbonized economy, strengthening Chile’s position as a top copper supplier.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Anglo American Achieves Strong 2024 Results Amidst Strategic Portfolio Shifts
Positive
Feb 20, 2025

Anglo American reported strong operational performance and significant cost reductions in its 2024 financial results, despite facing challenges such as lower commodity prices and difficult diamond trading conditions. The company achieved a $1.3 billion cost saving ahead of schedule and maintained its EBITDA margin at 30%. It is strategically simplifying its portfolio by divesting its steelmaking coal and nickel businesses, expected to generate up to $5.3 billion in cash proceeds, and progressing with the demerger of Anglo American Platinum. Safety remains a priority, with the company recording its lowest-ever injury rate, although it mourns the loss of three employees. Anglo American focuses on growth through high-quality brownfield projects and aims to enhance shareholder value through strong cash generation.

Financial Disclosures
Anglo American Highlights Kumba Iron Ore’s 2024 Financial Performance
Positive
Feb 18, 2025

Anglo American plc highlighted the financial results of its subsidiary, Kumba Iron Ore Limited, for the year ending 31 December 2024. Kumba reported an adjusted EBITDA of R28.1 billion, approximately $1.5 billion, contributing to Anglo American’s underlying EBITDA with an added adjustment, totaling around $1.6 billion. These results reflect Kumba’s financial health and its significant role in Anglo American’s overall portfolio, underscoring the importance of iron ore in the company’s revenue and market positioning.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Anglo American to Sell Nickel Business for $500 Million
Positive
Feb 18, 2025

Anglo American has agreed to sell its nickel business, which includes operations in Brazil and high-quality growth projects, to MMG Singapore Resources for up to $500 million. The sale is part of Anglo American’s strategy to simplify its portfolio and focus on copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients, aiming to generate significant cash proceeds and enhance its market positioning. The transaction, expected to complete by Q3 2025, is seen as beneficial for shareholders and stakeholders, with MMG set to expand its presence in Latin America.

M&A TransactionsShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Anglo American Announces June Demerger Plan for Platinum Arm
Neutral
Feb 17, 2025

Anglo American has announced its progress in the demerger of Anglo American Platinum, the world’s leading producer of PGMs, with the demerger expected to be completed in June. The company will seek shareholder approval during its April 2025 AGM and plans to retain a 19.9% shareholding initially, with no board representation post-demerger. This strategic move aligns with Anglo American’s portfolio simplification and growth strategy, positioning it to focus on its core assets. The demerger is part of broader structural changes that include exiting the steelmaking coal, nickel, and diamond businesses.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Anglo American Achieves 2024 Production Targets and Advances Strategic Simplification
Positive
Feb 6, 2025

Anglo American reported a solid operational performance for the fourth quarter of 2024, achieving its full-year production guidance across all its businesses. The company saw strong copper production from Quellaveco and record iron ore output from Minas-Rio. However, challenges in the diamond market led to a reduction in production guidance for 2025 and 2026. Anglo American is advancing its portfolio simplification strategy, including the sale of its Steelmaking Coal business and preparations to demerge the De Beers business. These strategic moves are expected to enhance operational efficiency and focus on higher-margin products, supporting the company’s growth and resilience.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Anglo American Announces Updated Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Feb 3, 2025

Anglo American plc has announced that as of January 31, 2025, the company’s issued share capital consists of over 1.3 billion ordinary shares, with no shares held in Treasury. This declaration sets the total number of voting rights at the same figure, enabling shareholders to calculate their required disclosures under FCA rules. Notably, over 112 million shares are held by independent companies from an earlier share buyback program, which have waived their voting rights. This update aids in compliance with the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority’s disclosure requirements and maintains transparency for stakeholders.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Anglo American Divests Stake in Jellinbah Group to Focus on Growth Sectors
Positive
Jan 29, 2025

Anglo American has successfully completed the sale of its 33.3% stake in the Jellinbah Group, a joint venture owning significant steelmaking coal mines in Australia, to Zashvin Pty Ltd for A$1.6 billion. This transaction marks a significant step in Anglo American’s strategic shift away from steelmaking coal, as it aims to simplify its portfolio and focus on high-margin, growth-oriented sectors like copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients. The sale strengthens the company’s balance sheet and aligns with its goal of creating a differentiated investment proposition, while also impacting its market positioning by signaling an exit from the coal industry.

Business Operations and Strategy
Anglo American’s Shareholder Structure Shifts with Capital Group’s Stake Increase
Positive
Jan 22, 2025

Anglo American plc announced a change in its shareholder structure as The Capital Group Companies, Inc. reported crossing a threshold of 5.03% in voting rights. This shift in ownership signals a potential influence on the company’s governance and strategic direction, reflecting the investment firm’s confidence in Anglo American’s market positioning and future growth prospects.

Anglo American Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights
Jan 2, 2025

Anglo American plc announced that as of December 31, 2024, the company’s issued share capital consisted of 1,337,577,913 ordinary shares, with no shares held in Treasury. This update is crucial for shareholders and others with notification obligations to determine their required notifications under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. Notably, certain shares are held by independent companies that have waived their voting rights, impacting the total number of voting shares.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.