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Rio Tinto (GB:RIO)
LSE:RIO

Rio Tinto (RIO) AI Stock Analysis

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GB

Rio Tinto

(LSE:RIO)

77Outperform
Rio Tinto scores a 77, reflecting its strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly in lithium and iron ore. While the technical indicators are neutral, the undervaluation and high dividend yield enhance its attractiveness. Corporate events underline a commitment to growth, though the dual-listed structure opposition adds a minor risk element.
Positive Factors
Aluminium Division Performance
Rio Tinto's aluminium division shows strong performance with a 61% increase in EBITDA, driven by China's supply side discipline and increased grid investment.
Bauxite Production
Bauxite production exceeded consensus estimates due to higher plant availability and utilization rates, especially at the Amrun mine.
Copper Production Growth
Rio Tinto's growth in copper is driven by the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, where mined copper production is expected to triple due to the new underground mine.
Negative Factors
Iron Ore Cash Costs
2024 Pilbara iron ore unit cash costs are now expected to be in the upper half of the $21.75-23.50/t guidance range due to higher than expected inflation.
Iron Ore Division Earnings
The iron ore division's earnings are slightly lower, with a 19% decrease in EBITDA mainly due to lower prices.
Kennecott Geotechnical Issues
Ongoing geotechnical challenges are expected to impact ore production through 2025/2026 at Kennecott.

Rio Tinto (RIO) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Rio Tinto Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company offers aluminum, copper, diamonds, gold, borates, titanium dioxide, salt, iron ore, and lithium. It also owns and operates open pit and underground mines, mills, refineries, smelters, power stations, and research and service facilities. Rio Tinto Group was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyRio Tinto generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of minerals and metals. Its key revenue streams include the sale of iron ore, which is its largest segment, followed by aluminum, copper, and various other minerals. The company benefits from long-term contracts and spot market sales to a global customer base, including steel producers, automotive manufacturers, and industrial companies. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures in regions rich in mineral resources further enhance Rio Tinto's operational capabilities and market reach. Additionally, Rio Tinto invests in technology and innovation to optimize production efficiency and reduce costs, contributing to its overall profitability.

Rio Tinto Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Rio Tinto presents a strong financial profile with robust profitability and cash flow generation. Despite revenue contraction and fluctuating return on equity, the stable balance sheet and effective cash flow management provide a solid foundation for future growth.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Rio Tinto's income statement reveals strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin, though slightly decreasing revenue over recent years. Despite recent revenue contraction, net profit margins remain robust. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, indicating efficient operations. However, the declining revenue trend is a concern that could impact future profitability if not addressed.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet of Rio Tinto showcases a solid equity base with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent financial management. The equity ratio suggests a balanced asset structure. However, the company's return on equity has shown some fluctuations, which could affect investor confidence. Overall, the balance sheet reflects stability but highlights the need to maintain strong equity performance.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
Rio Tinto's cash flow analysis is impressive, with consistent operating cash flow and a strong free cash flow to net income ratio. The company demonstrates effective cash management despite fluctuations in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio illustrates robust cash generation capabilities, supporting financial flexibility and shareholder returns.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
54.18B53.66B54.04B55.55B63.49B44.61B
Gross Profit
16.87B30.28B32.40B34.27B44.93B29.13B
EBIT
14.72B15.65B14.82B19.93B29.82B16.83B
EBITDA
19.64B23.16B21.08B25.54B36.13B21.68B
Net Income Common Stockholders
10.75B11.55B10.06B12.39B21.11B9.77B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
12.10B7.20B9.78B8.94B15.35B13.23B
Total Assets
90.95B102.79B103.55B96.74B102.90B97.39B
Total Debt
12.75B13.86B14.35B12.27B13.53B14.02B
Net Debt
3.25B7.03B5.65B5.50B724.00M3.63B
Total Liabilities
41.13B44.82B47.21B44.47B46.31B45.49B
Stockholders Equity
43.69B55.25B54.59B50.17B51.43B47.05B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
7.14B5.98B8.07B9.38B17.96B9.69B
Operating Cash Flow
15.24B15.60B15.16B16.13B25.34B15.88B
Investing Cash Flow
-8.27B-9.59B-6.96B-6.71B-7.16B-6.56B
Financing Cash Flow
-6.90B-7.09B-5.28B-15.47B-15.86B-7.13B

Rio Tinto Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price4827.50
Price Trends
50DMA
4785.04
Positive
100DMA
4743.95
Positive
200DMA
4754.40
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
18.77
Negative
RSI
52.57
Neutral
STOCH
54.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:RIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4827.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4765.55, above the 50-day MA of 4785.04, and above the 200-day MA of 4754.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 18.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:RIO.

Rio Tinto Risk Analysis

Rio Tinto disclosed 5 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rio Tinto reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Rio Tinto Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (47)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
GBRIO
77
Outperform
£81.98B8.5420.80%7.11%-3.39%11.60%
47
Neutral
$2.66B-3.61-22.67%3.28%3.74%-27.14%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:RIO
Rio Tinto
4,827.50
215.26
4.67%
AAUKF
Anglo American
30.30
6.92
29.60%
GB:ANTO
Antofagasta
1,867.00
-85.63
-4.39%
GB:GLEN
Glencore
302.90
-111.20
-26.85%
GB:FERG
Ferguson PLC
12,690.00
-4,448.57
-25.96%
BHPLF
BHP Group Ltd
24.57
-2.08
-7.80%

Rio Tinto Corporate Events

Delistings and Listing ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Board Opposes Dual-Listed Company Unification Proposal
Negative
Mar 19, 2025

Rio Tinto’s Board has recommended shareholders vote against a resolution proposed by Palliser Capital to unify its dual-listed company structure into an Australian-domiciled holding company. The Board argues that such a unification would be value destructive, citing comprehensive reviews and consultations with shareholders that concluded the current structure is beneficial. The Board emphasizes that the proposed unification would incur significant tax costs and potentially impact dividend payments, and it refutes claims of value loss under the current structure. The Board remains open to ideas that align with sustainable long-term value but sees no need for further review of the dual-listed structure at this time.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Managerial Share Acquisition
Neutral
Mar 12, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced that Martina Merz, a key management personnel, acquired shares in the company through the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. This transaction is part of the company’s compliance with the EU Market Abuse Regulation, reflecting transparency in managerial dealings and potentially impacting investor perception and stakeholder confidence.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Managerial Share Acquisition
Neutral
Mar 12, 2025

Rio Tinto announced a transaction involving the acquisition of ordinary shares by Martina Merz, a Non-Executive Director, through a market purchase. The transaction, which took place on March 7, 2025, involved the purchase of 1,750 shares at an aggregated price of €57.357 per share. This notification aligns with the EU Market Abuse Regulation, ensuring transparency and compliance in managerial shareholdings.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Prices $9 Billion in Debt Securities to Support Lithium Expansion
Positive
Mar 12, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the pricing of $9.0 billion in fixed and floating rate debt securities through its subsidiary, Rio Tinto Finance (USA) plc. The proceeds from this bond issuance will be used for general corporate purposes, including repaying a bridge loan facility used for the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium. This strategic financial move is expected to strengthen Rio Tinto’s financial position and support its expansion in the lithium market, which is crucial for the growing electric vehicle industry.

Business Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Invests $1.8 Billion in Pilbara Mine Extension
Positive
Mar 6, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced a $1.8 billion investment to extend the Brockman Syncline 1 mine in Western Australia’s Pilbara region, securing the future of its Brockman hub. This development, which has received necessary governmental and traditional owner approvals, will create approximately 1,000 construction jobs and sustain 600 operational roles, enhancing the company’s iron ore production capacity and supporting the Australian economy.

Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Completes $6.7 Billion Acquisition of Arcadium Lithium
Positive
Mar 6, 2025

Rio Tinto has successfully acquired Arcadium Lithium for $6.7 billion, positioning itself as a major player in the lithium market. This acquisition is expected to significantly boost Rio Tinto’s capacity to produce lithium carbonate equivalent, aiming for over 200 thousand tonnes per year by 2028. The move is part of Rio Tinto’s strategy to strengthen its supply of energy transition materials, leveraging Arcadium’s assets and capabilities to drive growth and deliver value to stakeholders. The acquisition will be funded through existing financial resources, and Arcadium’s shares will be delisted from major stock exchanges.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Key Management Share Acquisition
Positive
Mar 6, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced that Dominic Barton, a key management personnel, has acquired 800 shares of Rio Tinto Limited at a price of AUD 116.6539 per share. This transaction is part of the company’s dual listed structure, which requires notifications of dealings in securities to both the Australian Securities Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. The acquisition reflects ongoing management engagement with the company’s stock, which could indicate confidence in Rio Tinto’s market position and future performance.

Shareholder Meetings
Rio Tinto Updates 2025 AGM Notices for Joint Shareholder Vote
Neutral
Mar 4, 2025

Rio Tinto has issued updated notices for its 2025 annual general meetings, reflecting a joint decision matter to be voted on by both Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited shareholders. The updated notices replace those dated 19 February 2025, with the meetings scheduled for 3 April 2025 in London and 1 May 2025 in Perth, allowing shareholder participation both in person and virtually.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Total Voting Rights and Issued Capital
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

Rio Tinto plc has announced its total voting rights and issued capital as of February 28, 2025, in compliance with the Financial Conduct Authority’s rules. The company has an issued share capital of 1,255,959,963 ordinary shares, with 1,987,902 held in treasury, resulting in a total of 1,253,972,061 voting rights. This announcement is significant for shareholders and stakeholders as it provides clarity on voting rights and share capital, which are crucial for investment decisions and corporate governance.

Other
Rio Tinto Key Management Acquires Shares, Signaling Confidence
Positive
Mar 3, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced that Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz, a key management personnel, has acquired shares in Rio Tinto Limited. This transaction is part of the company’s dual-listed structure, with notifications made to both the Australian Securities Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. Such acquisitions by key personnel can indicate confidence in the company’s future performance and may influence stakeholder perceptions.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Key Management Acquires Shares
Neutral
Feb 27, 2025

Rio Tinto announced that Dean Dalla Valle, a key management personnel, acquired 424 shares of Rio Tinto Limited at a price of AUD 117.159693 per share. This transaction is part of the company’s dual-listed structure, with notifications sent to both the Australian Securities Exchange and the London Stock Exchange, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency in its managerial dealings.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Key Management Acquires Shares, Signaling Confidence
Positive
Feb 25, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced that Dean Dalla Valle, a key management personnel, has acquired 420 shares of Rio Tinto Limited at a price of AUD 119.00 per share. This transaction is part of the company’s dual listed company structure, which requires notification of dealings in its securities to both the ASX and LSE. This acquisition reflects ongoing confidence in the company’s performance and may impact investor perceptions positively.

Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto Executives Vest and Sell Shares in Performance Award
Neutral
Feb 24, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the vesting and sale of shares by its top executives, including the Chief Financial Officer, Chief Executive, and Chief Executive of Iron Ore. These transactions, which involve the vesting of shares under the Performance Share Award and the sale of shares to cover tax obligations, reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive compensation with shareholder interests. The transactions took place outside a trading venue and on the London Stock Exchange, highlighting the company’s transparency in its financial dealings.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Announces Vesting of Performance Share Awards for Key Executives
Neutral
Feb 24, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the vesting of Performance Share Awards (PSA) under its 2018 Equity Incentive Plan, which were granted to key management personnel in 2020. The awards, contingent on Total Shareholder Return performance, resulted in the vesting of shares for several executives, with some shares sold to cover tax obligations. This move reflects Rio Tinto’s commitment to aligning management incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s market positioning and stakeholder relations.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Key Management Personnel Acquires Rio Tinto Shares
Positive
Feb 24, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced that Ben Wyatt, a key management personnel, has acquired 100 shares of Rio Tinto Limited at a price of AUD 120.2050 per share. This transaction was reported to both the Australian Securities Exchange and the London Stock Exchange as part of the company’s obligations under its dual listed company structure. This move could indicate a vote of confidence in the company’s stock, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and market positioning.

Shareholder Meetings
Rio Tinto Announces 2025 AGM Schedule
Neutral
Feb 20, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the schedule for its 2025 annual general meetings, with Rio Tinto plc’s meeting set for April 3 in London and Rio Tinto Limited’s meeting on May 1 in Perth. Shareholders have the option to attend in person or participate virtually, reflecting the company’s commitment to accessibility and engagement.

M&A TransactionsDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto’s Strong Financial Performance and Strategic Growth Initiatives in 2024
Positive
Feb 19, 2025

Rio Tinto reported strong financial results for 2024, with an underlying EBITDA of $23.3 billion and operating cash flow of $15.6 billion, despite a decrease in iron ore prices. The company is focusing on expanding its portfolio with projects like the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine in Mongolia, the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, and the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium plc, which strengthens its position in energy transition commodities. Rio Tinto also maintained its dividend payout, reflecting financial robustness, while emphasizing safety improvements and reducing carbon emissions. The company is advancing towards sustainable operations, highlighted by the development of the BioIron™ process for lower carbon steelmaking.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Announces Significant Updates in Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves
Positive
Feb 19, 2025

Rio Tinto has updated its Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves, reflecting significant changes across several operations. At the Amrun deposit in Australia, Proved Ore Reserves increased substantially due to enhanced classification, while the Winu project in Australia saw a rise in Indicated Mineral Resources. In Quebec, Canada, the Iron and Titanium operations experienced a notable increase in Mineral Resources, and the Porto Trombetas deposit in Brazil reported a significant rise in Ore Reserves, partly due to regulatory approvals. These updates are expected to impact Rio Tinto’s market positioning and operational planning, with details to be included in the company’s upcoming 2024 Annual Report.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto to Present 2024 Full-Year Results
Neutral
Feb 19, 2025

Rio Tinto announced its 2024 full-year results presentation, scheduled for February 19, 2025. The presentation, led by Chief Executive Jakob Stausholm and CFO Peter Cunningham, will be available via a live webcast. This announcement underscores the company’s commitment to transparency and its efforts to engage stakeholders by providing insights into its financial performance and strategic direction.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Announces Strategic Board Changes Amidst Growth
Neutral
Feb 19, 2025

Rio Tinto announced several changes to its Board of Directors, including the stepping down of Sam Laidlaw, Simon Henry, and Kaisa Hietala in 2025. These changes reflect the conclusion of a transitional phase aimed at incorporating newer directors into the group. Ben Wyatt will replace Sam Laidlaw as Chair of the People & Remuneration Committee, while Sharon Thorne will take on roles as Senior Independent Director and Chair of the Audit & Risk Committee. The departure of Kaisa Hietala is influenced by potential conflicts of interest due to the company’s expanding lithium operations and her directorship with Exxon Mobil, highlighting Rio Tinto’s focus on ethical governance as it navigates its business growth.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Releases 2024 Annual Report with Integrated Climate Disclosures
Neutral
Feb 19, 2025

Rio Tinto has released its 2024 Annual Report, which now integrates climate disclosures in line with the IFRS S2 Sustainability Disclosure Standard. This integration is part of their 2025 Climate Action Plan, reflecting the company’s continued focus on sustainable practices. The report is available on their website and will be filed with various financial authorities, ensuring transparency and accessibility for stakeholders.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Discloses Total Voting Rights and Issued Capital
Neutral
Feb 3, 2025

Rio Tinto PLC has announced its total issued share capital and voting rights as of January 31, 2025, comprising 1,255,959,591 ordinary shares, with 2,907,902 shares held in treasury. This disclosure, in line with the FCA’s Transparency Rule, highlights the company’s dual-listed company structure with Rio Tinto Limited, enabling joint voting and aligning shareholders of both entities as if they were part of a single enterprise. This announcement provides critical information for shareholder notification obligations and reflects Rio Tinto’s commitment to transparency in its corporate governance.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Announces Major Shareholding Change
Neutral
Jan 29, 2025

Rio Tinto announced a notification of major holdings by AustralianSuper Pty Ltd, which now holds 3.00933% of voting rights in the company. This acquisition of voting rights signifies a notable shift in shareholder composition, potentially impacting corporate governance and strategic decision-making within Rio Tinto. The notification highlights AustralianSuper’s increased influence in the company’s future policy and operational directions.

Business Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Updates on Executive Shareholdings Under Global Employee Share Plan
Neutral
Jan 21, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced updates to the shareholdings of its directors and persons discharging managerial responsibilities (PDMR) under their Global Employee Share Plan. The transactions involve the vesting of matching shares and sales to cover taxes, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning the interests of its leadership with shareholder value. This announcement may have implications for Rio Tinto’s operational transparency and stakeholder confidence, showcasing the company’s strategic moves in managing its executive shareholdings.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto Announces Share Transactions by Key Management
Neutral
Jan 21, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the vesting and acquisition of shares under its Global Employee Share Plan (myShare) and UK Share Plan (UKSP) by key management personnel. The plans allow employees to purchase company shares with matching shares awarded, which are subject to a holding period before vesting. The latest transactions involve key personnel including Jakob Stausholm and Sinead Kaufman, who have acquired and retained shares, signaling ongoing employee engagement and compensation alignment with company performance.

Rio Tinto Achieves Record 2024 Production, Expands Lithium Portfolio
Jan 16, 2025

Rio Tinto reported strong operational performance for 2024, with significant achievements in its Safe Production System contributing to record production levels in key areas such as bauxite and initial lithium production at its Rincon project. The company is advancing its growth strategy with the successful ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia and the expansion of its lithium operations, positioning itself as a leader in energy transition materials. Additionally, the company is progressing with its acquisition of Arcadium Lithium plc, enhancing its strategic portfolio in battery materials. Despite slight declines in iron ore and titanium dioxide slag production, Rio Tinto continues to focus on delivering shareholder returns and maintaining a diversified and growing business.

Rio Tinto Discloses Total Voting Rights and Issued Capital
Jan 2, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced its total voting rights and issued capital as of December 31, 2024, highlighting that the company’s issued share capital comprises over 1.25 billion ordinary shares. The announcement provides vital information for shareholders and stakeholders on the number of voting rights, reflecting the company’s transparency and adherence to regulations. This update is significant for stakeholders to accurately assess their interests in Rio Tinto, ensuring compliance with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

Rio Tinto Unveils Key 2025 Financial and Operational Dates
Jan 2, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced its key financial and operational dates for 2025, detailing timelines for dividend actions, results announcements, and annual general meetings. This schedule underlines the company’s commitment to transparency with its stakeholders and provides a roadmap for its financial activities throughout the year.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.