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FibroGen (FGEN)
NASDAQ:FGEN
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FibroGen
(NASDAQ:FGEN)49Neutral
Positive Factors
Financial Health
FibroGen's sale of its China operations to AstraZeneca is expected to bring in approximately $160 million, strengthening the company's cash position.
Revenue Stream
Roxadustat's approval in 45 countries for treating anemia provides a stable revenue stream and reduces the need for dilutive capital raises.
Negative Factors
Investor Sentiment
A combination of the majority of revenue being generated in ex.-U.S. markets, and the asset's previous failure in CKD-anemia in the U.S., is preventing traction with the investors.
FibroGen (FGEN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$39.33M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.51M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.02
Revenue Growth16.15%
EPS Growth59.81%
CountryUS
Employees486
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength74
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.23
Shares Outstanding100,770,150
10 Day Avg. Volume2,190,876
30 Day Avg. Volume5,513,350
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.22
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-1.20
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.00Price Target Upside2602.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
FibroGen Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFibroGen, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel therapeutics to treat serious unmet medical needs. Operating primarily in the biopharmaceutical sector, FibroGen specializes in the development of therapeutics related to fibrosis and hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) biology. Its core products include roxadustat, a first-in-class oral small molecule for the treatment of anemia in patients with chronic kidney disease, and pamrevlumab, a monoclonal antibody targeting fibrosis and cancer.
How the Company Makes MoneyFibroGen generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily centered around the development and commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. Key revenue streams include product sales, particularly from its flagship product roxadustat, which is marketed in collaboration with partners such as AstraZeneca and Astellas Pharma in various regions. The company also earns revenue through collaboration agreements, which include upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on sales. These partnerships are significant as they contribute to FibroGen's earnings by providing financial support for research and development, as well as leveraging the marketing and distribution networks of its partners to maximize market reach and revenue potential.
FibroGen Financial Statement Overview
Summary
FibroGen's financial performance is marked by significant challenges. The income statement reveals ongoing negative profit margins despite slight revenue growth. The balance sheet shows severe financial instability with negative equity and high leverage. Cash flow analysis indicates persistent negative operating cash flow, though there is a slight improvement in free cash flow.Income Statement
FibroGen's income statement shows a decline in revenue growth and persistent negative profit margins. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increased compared to the previous year, but both the EBIT and net profit margins remain deeply negative, indicating ongoing profitability challenges. Despite a slight revenue increase, the continual high operating losses impact the overall financial health.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals significant financial instability, with a negative stockholders' equity position indicating liabilities far exceed assets. The company has a high debt burden compared to its equity, exacerbating financial risk. Persistent negative equity ratios over recent years highlight severe balance sheet weaknesses.20
Very Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows negative operating and free cash flows, with slight improvement in the TTM period. Although there is a positive trend in free cash flow growth, the company's inability to generate positive operating cash flow remains a significant concern. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio further underscores cash flow challenges.30
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 180.01M | 147.75M | 140.73M | 235.31M | 176.32M | 256.58M | Gross Profit |
| 138.38M | 128.90M | 120.45M | 222.44M | 167.45M | 255.43M | EBIT |
| -112.95M | -281.81M | -301.02M | -288.53M | -191.88M | -89.31M | EBITDA |
| -104.41M | -261.40M | -282.82M | -274.80M | -164.28M | -52.31M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -121.79M | -284.23M | -295.23M | -291.03M | -189.29M | -76.97M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 544.23M | 235.59M | 422.01M | 405.19M | 686.54M | 533.76M | Total Assets |
| 787.30M | 423.53M | 610.09M | 773.82M | 826.84M | 857.40M | Total Debt |
| 38.03M | 170.46M | 89.89M | 99.73M | 37.72M | 51.10M | Net Debt |
| -395.48M | 56.77M | -65.81M | -71.49M | -640.67M | -75.16M | Total Liabilities |
| 397.03M | 585.73M | 611.57M | 544.71M | 385.39M | 321.99M | Stockholders Equity |
| 371.00M | -204.17M | -21.45M | 209.15M | 422.18M | 516.13M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -126.23M | -317.54M | -184.67M | -112.42M | 77.61M | -84.47M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -125.85M | -315.02M | -145.93M | -82.23M | 81.60M | -78.70M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 134.51M | 153.66M | 89.12M | -426.97M | 452.49M | 120.02M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -506.00K | 122.75M | 46.78M | -563.00K | 13.34M | -4.30M |
FibroGen Technical Analysis
Negative
0.37
Price Trends
0.52
Negative
0.44
Negative
0.59
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Positive
39.13
Neutral
16.79
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FGEN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.49, below the 50-day MA of 0.52, and below the 200-day MA of 0.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FGEN.
FibroGen Risk Analysis
FibroGen disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. FibroGen reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
FibroGen Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $10.82B | 21.56 | 23.13% | ― | 18.49% | 176.71% | |
78 Outperform | $76.36B | 18.22 | 15.95% | 0.12% | 8.27% | 10.35% | |
77 Outperform | $13.58B | 32.38 | 8.05% | ― | 17.35% | 151.40% | |
75 Outperform | $144.51B | 303.37 | 2.28% | 2.65% | 6.16% | -91.54% | |
64 Neutral | $126.25B | ― | -3.15% | ― | 11.64% | -114.72% | |
49 Neutral | $7.05B | 0.34 | -55.09% | 2.46% | 25.27% | -3.43% | |
49 Neutral | $39.33M | ― | 60.38% | ― | 16.15% | 59.81% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
FGEN
FibroGen
0.37
-1.34
-78.36%
BMRN
BioMarin Pharmaceutical
72.23
-13.77
-16.01%
EXEL
Exelixis
38.58
16.12
71.77%
GILD
Gilead Sciences
117.41
45.05
62.26%
REGN
Regeneron
707.51
-255.69
-26.55%
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
488.29
73.82
17.81%
FibroGen Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Nov 12, 2024 | % Change Since: -5.13% | Next Earnings Date: Mar 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a positive outlook primarily driven by the robust performance of Roxadustat in China and effective cost management. However, there are challenges with decreased development revenue and uncertainties in expanding Roxadustat in new markets.Highlights
Strong Performance of Roxadustat in China
Roxadustat generated $96.6 million in net sales in China, a 25% increase from Q3 2023, with a 57% increase in FibroGen's portion of net product revenue.
Financial Outlook and Guidance
FibroGen raised the bottom end of its full-year guidance for Roxadustat net sales in China to $330 million to $350 million, and expects full-year net product revenue to be between $135 million and $150 million.
Cash Management and Cost Reduction
The company ended Q3 with $160 million in cash, cash equivalents, and accounts receivable. Significant cost reductions have been implemented, reducing operating costs by 39% year-over-year.
Progress in FG-3246 and FG-3180 Programs
Positive interim results from Phase 1b study of FG-3246 in combination with enzalutamide with an rPFS of 10.2 months reported.
Lowlights
Decrease in Development Revenue
Development revenue fell to $0.4 million in Q3 2024 from $6.8 million in the same period of 2023.
Uncertainty in U.S. and ROW Market for Roxadustat
Regaining rights to Roxadustat in the U.S. and ROW presents challenges in pursuing development opportunities amid high unmet need.
Company Guidance
During the FibroGen Q3 2024 earnings call, the company provided comprehensive financial guidance and updates on strategic priorities. They reiterated full-year net product revenue guidance under U.S. GAAP to be between $135 million and $150 million, with Roxadustat net sales in China expected to range from $330 million to $350 million. FibroGen reported a strong financial position, exiting the third quarter with $160 million in cash, cash equivalents, and accounts receivable, projecting this to fund operations into 2026. Additionally, they highlighted a potential $10 million milestone payment from AstraZeneca contingent on approval for chemotherapy-induced anemia in China. The call also addressed operational cost reductions, with a significant 39% decrease in total operating expenses year-over-year, positioning FibroGen as a leaner organization focused on advancing their key pipeline assets, FG-3246 and FG-3180.FibroGen Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
FibroGen Appoints David DeLucia as CFO
Positive
Dec 16, 2024
FibroGen has appointed David DeLucia as Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Juan Graham. DeLucia brings extensive financial leadership within the life sciences industry to the role, having previously served as Vice President of Financial Planning & Analysis at FibroGen. His appointment comes as the company aims to advance its strategic vision and build on the performance of products like FG-3246 and roxadustat. This leadership change is expected to bolster the company’s financial strategy and execution as it continues its focus on developing therapies for cancer and related conditions.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.