Expand Energy (EXE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $23.27B
• Dividend Yield: 2.3%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 64.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: -27.40%
• EPS Growth: -122.68%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,500
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -4.12
• Shares Outstanding: 232,699,940
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,493,178
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,091,264
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.91
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 16.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $122.40
• Price Target Upside: 22.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21

Expand Energy's overall stock score reflects its financial difficulties, with significant losses impacting the income statement. Despite these challenges, the company shows strength in cash flow management and has a positive outlook with strategic plans for production growth. Technical analysis suggests moderate market conditions, while the valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings. The earnings call highlights strong strategic initiatives but also notes potential risks from market conditions.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Analyst maintains a Buy recommendation for EXE with a price target of $130.

Operational Efficiency

EXE expects to get the full benefit of cost savings from the merger synergies by the end of 2026, a full year ahead of schedule.

Strategic Growth

The senior hire of a global marketing executive presents numerous opportunities to gain margin as the largest US gas producer.

Negative Factors

Capital Expenditure

There is concern over the ~11% greater capex for a modest production increase, as some investors may push back.

Cost Implications

Steel tariffs are expected to impact well costs in 2026.

Market Differentials

April differentials in the Northeast and Gulf Coast have widened to a greater-than-average discount to HH.

Expand Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chesapeake Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. It engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from underground reservoirs. The company holds interests in natural gas resource plays in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania and the Haynesville/Bossier Shales in northwestern Louisiana. As of December 31, 2023, the company owns a portfolio of onshore U.S. unconventional natural gas assets, including interests in approximately 5,000 natural gas wells. Chesapeake Energy Corporation was founded in 1989 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

Expand Energy makes money primarily through the sale of electricity generated from its renewable energy projects. The company enters into power purchase agreements (PPAs) with utility companies, businesses, and governments, ensuring a stable and long-term revenue stream. Additionally, EXE earns income by providing energy consulting services and through government incentives and subsidies that promote clean energy adoption. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with technology providers and financial institutions to enhance its project financing and technological capabilities, further contributing to its financial growth.

Expand Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Expand Energy faces significant financial challenges with declining revenue and profitability. The income statement shows substantial losses, and the balance sheet indicates a high leverage level. Despite these issues, the company demonstrates robust cash flow generation, which supports its operations and debt servicing.

Income Statement

Expand Energy has experienced significant volatility in its income statement. The latest annual report shows a sharp decline in total revenue by approximately 45.7% from the previous year. The gross profit margin has dropped to 24.7% from 62.7%, while the net profit margin is negative, indicating substantial losses. The company also reported a negative EBIT margin, further demonstrating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a high level of leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33, which is relatively stable compared to industry norms. However, return on equity has sharply turned negative due to significant net losses, indicating inefficiencies in utilizing shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 62.9%, reflecting a strong equity base relative to assets.

Cash Flow

Expand Energy exhibits resilience in cash flow generation. Despite negative net income, the operating cash flow remains robust, with favorable operating cash flow to net income ratio suggesting effective cash management. Free cash flow is positive, albeit with low growth, indicating potential for reinvestment and debt servicing.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.22B	7.78B	11.44B	7.30B	5.21B
	Gross Profit
1.04B	4.87B	8.16B	2.42B	620.00M
	EBIT
-803.00M	3.14B	3.78B	2.33B	-8.70B
	EBITDA
1.01B	4.76B	5.56B	7.30B	-8.20B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-714.00M	2.42B	4.94B	6.33B	-9.73B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
317.00M	1.79B	130.00M	905.00M	279.00M
	Total Assets
27.89B	14.38B	15.47B	11.01B	6.58B
	Total Debt
5.75B	2.11B	3.09B	2.28B	1.93B
	Net Debt
5.43B	1.03B	2.96B	1.37B	1.65B
	Total Liabilities
10.33B	3.65B	6.34B	5.34B	11.93B
	Stockholders Equity
17.57B	10.73B	9.12B	5.67B	-5.34B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
8.00M	551.00M	2.30B	1.05B	22.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.56B	2.38B	4.13B	1.79B	1.16B
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.90B	473.00M	-3.40B	-916.00M	-992.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-419.00M	-1.89B	-1.45B	-237.00M	101.00M

Expand Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 100.01
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 100.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.95, below the 50-day MA of 104.09, and above the 200-day MA of 89.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.41 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXE.

Expand Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CTRA	79 Outperform	$19.19B	16.71	8.56%	3.38%	-3.92%	-29.44%
WDS	75 Outperform	$23.42B	6.17	10.23%	10.15%	-0.93%	115.30%
DVN	74 Outperform	$19.02B	6.43	21.77%	4.26%	3.00%	-21.63%
OXY	72 Outperform	$38.10B	16.58	8.88%	2.22%	-4.35%	-37.69%
FANG	64 Neutral	$35.71B	7.94	12.20%	5.03%	31.55%	-9.00%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.70B	4.18	-3.52%	8.32%	0.35%	-64.68%
EXE	53 Neutral	$23.27B	64.20	-5.05%	2.30%	-27.40%	-122.68%

Expand Energy Corporate Events

Expand Energy Reports Q4 Loss, Plans 2025 Growth

On February 26, 2025, Expand Energy Corporation reported its financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, alongside its 2025 outlook. The company experienced a net loss of $399 million in the fourth quarter but achieved an adjusted net income of $131 million. It also announced a significant investment grade issuance and plans to increase its production capacity in 2025. The company aims to capture $400 million in synergies in 2025 and achieve a total of $500 million by the end of 2026. Expand Energy plans to pay a quarterly dividend and allocate $500 million to debt reduction in 2025, with additional cash flow expected for dividends, share repurchases, and balance sheet improvements.