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Evolus Inc (EOLS)
NASDAQ:EOLS

Evolus (EOLS) AI Stock Analysis

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Evolus

(NASDAQ:EOLS)

53Neutral
Evolus's stock score reflects robust revenue growth and early profitability, which are significant strengths. However, ongoing profitability challenges, a weak balance sheet, and valuation concerns weigh on the overall score. The early achievement of profitability and market expansion efforts are promising, but caution is advised due to cash flow management challenges and market conditions.
Positive Factors
FDA Approval
The FDA approved Evolysse for facial lines and folds, making it the first HA filler to include wrinkles from weight loss in the label.
Product Launch
The launch of the first two filler lines in the US is expected to be a key driver behind the company's revenue goal of $700 million by 2028.
Negative Factors
Stock Volatility
The stock experienced a significant drop from $16 down to $10 due to concerns for the 1% change in guidance.

Evolus (EOLS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Evolus Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEvolus, Inc. is a medical aesthetics company, which engages in the provision of medical aesthetic treatments and procedures. It offers products under the brand of Jeuveau. The company was founded by Scott Cannizzaro in November, 2012 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, CA.
How the Company Makes MoneyEvolus generates revenue primarily through the sale of its aesthetic product, Jeuveau®. The company targets its sales efforts towards dermatologists, plastic surgeons, and aesthetic practitioners, leveraging a specialized sales force to promote its product. Jeuveau® is distributed through a network of third-party distributors and direct sales channels. A significant portion of Evolus's revenue is derived from the U.S. market, although the company is also expanding its presence internationally. In addition to direct sales, Evolus engages in strategic partnerships and distribution agreements to enhance market penetration and broaden its customer base. The company focuses heavily on branding and marketing initiatives to increase product awareness and drive demand, which are critical factors in its revenue generation strategy.

Evolus Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Evolus has shown strong revenue growth and improved gross profit margins but remains unprofitable with negative net income and operational losses. The balance sheet is weak due to low equity levels, while cash flow is negative yet improving, supported by external financing.
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Evolus has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the years, increasing from $34.9 million in 2019 to $264.3 million in 2024. However, the company is still facing profitability challenges, with negative net income each year. The gross profit margin has improved significantly, reflecting better cost management. Despite this, negative EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate ongoing operational losses.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Evolus's balance sheet shows a concerning debt-to-equity ratio due to low equity levels, which have been negative in several years. The company’s total debt has decreased, but stockholders' equity remains minimal, affecting overall financial stability. Positive cash balances partially mitigate these risks, but improvements in equity are needed for stronger financial health.
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
Cash flow from operations remains negative, but there has been a decrease in the deficit over time, indicating potential improvements. Free cash flow is also negative, reflecting continued cash burn. However, the company has been able to secure financing to bolster cash reserves, which is crucial for operations in the short term.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
264.31M202.09M148.62M99.67M56.54M
Gross Profit
180.34M140.53M92.73M56.14M38.24M
EBIT
-34.41M-49.23M-57.58M-63.62M-68.70M
EBITDA
-25.00M-41.81M-60.72M-39.06M-144.75M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-50.42M-61.69M-74.41M-46.81M-163.01M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
86.95M62.84M53.92M146.26M107.56M
Total Assets
232.57M189.00M177.98M257.48M209.07M
Total Debt
8.47M126.55M73.20M74.74M138.32M
Net Debt
-78.48M63.71M19.28M-71.51M35.76M
Total Liabilities
227.05M209.69M159.48M175.61M282.03M
Stockholders Equity
5.52M-20.69M18.50M-422.88M-376.07M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-19.47M-35.63M-11.71M-34.36M-61.01M
Operating Cash Flow
-18.00M-34.01M-8.77M-33.39M-57.87M
Investing Cash Flow
-4.82M-1.63M-1.39M4.03M12.19M
Financing Cash Flow
47.41M44.64M-1.52M73.05M38.35M

Evolus Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price12.71
Price Trends
50DMA
12.97
Negative
100DMA
13.36
Negative
200DMA
13.52
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.03
Positive
RSI
39.16
Neutral
STOCH
23.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EOLS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.12, below the 50-day MA of 12.97, and below the 200-day MA of 13.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EOLS.

Evolus Risk Analysis

Evolus disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Evolus reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Evolus Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$10.28B26.7158.41%11.84%42.04%
66
Neutral
$1.10B84.273.42%14.88%-86.70%
58
Neutral
$338.17M40.36%13.57%89.73%
53
Neutral
$806.28M-913.07%31.76%24.85%
49
Neutral
$236.84M137.04-8.02%-12.48%99.74%
49
Neutral
$6.90B-0.08-53.01%2.43%24.84%-3.06%
41
Neutral
$381.02M111.29%15.33%61.49%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EOLS
Evolus
12.71
-1.38
-9.79%
IRWD
Ironwood Pharma
1.48
-7.21
-82.97%
INVA
Innoviva
17.63
2.81
18.96%
RVNC
Revance Therapeutics
3.65
-2.63
-41.88%
HRTX
Heron Therapeutics
2.29
-0.07
-2.97%
MEDP
Medpace Holdings
325.87
-81.67
-20.04%

Evolus Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 4, 2025 | % Change Since: -11.43% | Next Earnings Date: May 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Evolus demonstrated strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and profitability achieved ahead of schedule, along with successful product approvals and market expansion. However, there are concerns regarding market conditions and managing cash flow in Q1 2025.
Highlights
Achieving Profitability
Evolus achieved meaningful profitability in Q4 2024 and delivered profitability for the full year, one year ahead of their stated goal.
Revenue Growth
Revenue growth exceeded 30% for the fifth consecutive year, with 2024 total net revenues of $266.3 million, representing a 32% increase over 2023.
Expansion of Product Portfolio
FDA approval of Evolys Form and Evolys Smooth injectable gels, expanding the total addressable market in the US by 78%.
Increase in Market Share
US market share approaching 14%, with over 2,900 new accounts added in 2024.
International Growth
Expanded direct presence in Australia and Spain, with the goal of $100 million in international revenue by 2028.
Strong Cash Position
Ended Q4 2024 with $87 million in cash, reflecting strong sales growth and efficient cash collection.
Lowlights
Flat Filler Market Expectations
2025 projections include a relatively flat filler market, indicating potential challenges in achieving expected growth.
Seasonal Cash Flow Challenges
Anticipated use of cash in Q1 2025 due to seasonality of revenue and timing of bonus payments and inventory stocking.
Company Guidance
In the recent earnings call for Evolus, the company reported achieving profitability in the fourth quarter of 2024, surpassing their target by one year. Notably, Evolus experienced over 30% revenue growth for the fifth consecutive year, with the U.S. market share nearing 14%. The company ended 2024 with global net revenues of $266.3 million, marking a 32% increase over 2023, and set a 2025 revenue guidance of $345 to $355 million. Evolus also expanded its customer base by adding over 2,900 new accounts, totaling more than 15,000 purchasing accounts. The launch of Evolys, approved by the FDA, is expected to increase the U.S. market by 78%, contributing 8% to 10% of total revenue in 2025. Evolus aims for $700 million in revenue by 2028, supported by strong international growth, particularly in the UK, Australia, and Spain, with a target of $100 million in international revenue by 2028. The company emphasized its focus on digital strategy and consumer engagement, with Evolys Rewards surpassing 1.1 million users, a 40% increase from the previous year.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.