Ecolab (ECL) Risk Analysis

Over the past year, global interest rates aimed at curbing inflation, as well as implications of geopolitical situations in Europe, the Middle East and China, have resulted in economic and demand uncertainty. Previously, the COVID pandemic, geopolitical instability and other global events have resulted in supply chain challenges, inflation, high interest rates, foreign currency exchange volatility, and volatility in global capital markets, which have affected our business and could have a material adverse impact on our business in the future. Countries such as Argentina and Turkey have experienced economic upheaval and similar upheaval in other countries with Ecolab operations could have a material adverse impact on our consolidated results of operations, financial position and cash flows by negatively impacting economic activity, including in our key end-markets, and by further weakening the local currency versus the U.S. dollar, resulting in reduced sales and earnings from our foreign operations, which are generated in the local currency, and then translated to U.S. dollars.

We have significant operations outside the United States, including joint ventures and other alliances. We conduct business in more than 170 countries and, in 2024, approximately 47% of our net sales originated outside the United States. There are inherent risks in our international operations, including: - exchange controls and currency restrictions;- currency fluctuations and devaluations;- tariffs and trade barriers;- export duties and quotas;- changes in the availability and pricing of raw materials, energy and utilities;- changes in local economic conditions;- changes in laws and regulations, including the imposition of economic or trade sanctions affecting international commercial transactions;- difficulties in managing international operations and the burden of complying with international and foreign laws;- requirements to include local ownership or management in our business;- economic and business objectives that differ from those of our joint venture partners;- exposure to possible expropriation, nationalization or other government actions;- restrictions on our ability to repatriate dividends from our subsidiaries;- unsettled political conditions, military action, civil unrest, acts of terrorism, force majeure, war or other armed conflict, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict and other hostilities in the Middle East; and - countries whose governments have been hostile to U.S.-based businesses. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the United States' and other countries' sanctions against Russia, we have limited our Russian business to operations that are essential to life, providing minimal support for our healthcare, life sciences, food and beverage and certain water businesses, and we may further narrow our presence in Russia depending on developments in the conflict or otherwise. While our operations in Russia and areas experiencing conflict are not material to our business and financial results, the escalation of these conflicts, or the imposition of additional sanctions by the United States, may also heighten many other risks disclosed in our report on Form 10-K, any of which could materially and adversely affect our business and financial results. Such risks include, but are not limited to, adverse effects on macroeconomic conditions, including increased inflation, constraints on the availability of commodities, supply chain disruption and decreased business spending; disruptions to our or our business partners' global technology infrastructure, including through cyber-attack or cyber-intrusion; adverse changes in international trade policies and relations; claims, litigation and regulatory enforcement; our ability to implement and execute our business strategy; terrorist activities; our exposure to foreign currency fluctuations; reputational risk; and constraints, volatility, or disruption in the capital markets. Additionally, changes in international trade policies by governments around the world, including the imposition or continuation of tariffs, could materially and adversely affect our business. In 2018, the U.S. imposed tariffs on certain imports from China and other countries, resulting in retaliatory tariffs by China and other countries. In February 2025, the U.S. proposed a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% additional tariff on imports from China. These tariffs, any new tariffs or policies imposed by governments around the world, or any resulting retaliatory measures, to the extent implemented, could increase our costs, reduce our sales and earnings or otherwise have an adverse effect on our operations. Further, our operations outside the United States require us to comply with a number of United States and non-U.S. laws and regulations, including anti-corruption laws such as the United States Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the United Kingdom Bribery Act, as well as U.S. and non-U.S. economic sanctions regulations. We have internal policies and procedures relating to such laws and regulations; however, there is risk that such policies and procedures will not always protect us from the misconduct or reckless acts of employees or representatives, particularly in the case of recently acquired operations that may not have significant training in applicable compliance policies and procedures. Violations of such laws and regulations could result in disruptive investigations, significant fines and sanctions, which could have a material adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations, financial position or cash flows. Also, because of uncertainties regarding the interpretation and application of laws and regulations and the enforceability of intellectual property and contract rights, we face risks in some countries that our intellectual property rights and contract rights would not be enforced by local governments. We are also periodically faced with the risk of economic uncertainty, which has impacted our business in some countries. Other risks in international business also include difficulties in staffing and managing local operations, including managing credit risk to local customers and distributors. Our overall success as a global business depends, in part, upon our ability to succeed in differing economic, social, legal and political conditions. We may not continue to succeed in developing and implementing policies and strategies that are effective in each location where we do business, which could have a material adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations, financial position or cash flows.

Economic downturns, and in particular downturns in our larger markets including the foodservice, hospitality, travel, health care, food processing, refining, pulp and paper, mining and steel industries, can adversely impact our customers, and we may find it difficult to restore margins by maintaining pricing due to easing inflation from slowing economic growth. Recently, the war and energy crisis in Europe have resulted in a more challenging macroeconomic environment with significantly impacted costs and demand. Previously, the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted the demand for our products and services provided to customers in the full-service restaurant, hospitality, lodging and entertainment industries. In prior years, a weaker global economic environment has also negatively impacted certain of our other end-markets. During these periods of weaker economic activity, our customers and potential customers may reduce or discontinue their volume of purchases of cleaning and sanitizing products and water treatment and process chemicals, which has had, and may continue to have, a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operation or cash flows.

We expect to continue to complete selected acquisitions and joint venture transactions in the future. In connection with acquisition and joint venture transactions, applicable accounting rules generally require the tangible and intangible assets of the acquired business to be recorded on the balance sheet of the acquiring company at their fair values. Intangible assets other than goodwill are required to be amortized over their estimated useful lives and this expense may be significant. Any excess in the purchase price paid by the acquiring company over the fair value of tangible and intangible assets of the acquired business is recorded as goodwill. If it is later determined that the anticipated future cash flows from the acquired business may be less than the carrying values of the assets and goodwill of the acquired business, the assets or goodwill may be deemed to be impaired. In this case, the acquiring company may be required under applicable accounting rules to write down the value of the assets or goodwill on its balance sheet to reflect the extent of the impairment. This write-down of assets or goodwill is generally recognized as a non-cash expense in the statement of operations of the acquiring company for the accounting period during which the write down occurs. As of December 31, 2024, we had goodwill of $7.9 billion which is maintained in various reporting units, including goodwill from the Nalco and Purolite transactions. If we determine that any of the assets or goodwill recorded in connection with the Nalco and Purolite transactions or any other prior or future acquisitions or joint venture transactions have become impaired, we will be required to record a loss resulting from the impairment. Impairment losses could be significant and could have a material adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations and financial position.

As of December 31, 2024, we had approximately $7.6 billion in outstanding indebtedness, with approximately $1.5 billion in the form of floating rate debt. Our debt level and related debt service obligations may have negative consequences, including: - requiring us to dedicate significant cash flow from operations to the payment of principal and interest on our debt, which reduces the funds we have available for other purposes such as acquisitions and capital investment;- reducing our flexibility in planning for or reacting to changes in our business and market conditions;- exposing us to interest rate risk since a portion of our debt obligations are at variable rates. For example, a one percentage point increase in the average interest rate on our floating rate debt at December 31, 2024 would increase future interest expense by approximately $15 million per year; and - increasing our cost of funds and materially and adversely affecting our liquidity and access to the capital markets should we fail to maintain the credit ratings assigned to us by independent rating agencies. If we add new debt, the risks described above could increase.

We have numerous global, national, regional and local competitors. Our ability to compete depends in part on providing high quality and high value-added products, technology and service. We must also continue to identify, develop and commercialize innovative, profitable and high value-added products for niche applications and commercial digital applications. We have made significant investments in commercial digital product offerings, and our culture and expertise must continue to evolve to develop, support and profitably deploy commercial digital offerings, which are becoming an increasingly important part of our business. There can be no assurance that we will be able to accomplish our technology development goals or that technological developments by our competitors, including in the area of artificial intelligence, will not place certain of our products, technology or services at a competitive disadvantage in the future. In addition, certain of the new products that we have under development will be offered in markets in which we do not currently compete, and there can be no assurance that we will be able to compete successfully in those new markets. If we fail to introduce new technologies or commercialize our digital offerings on a timely and profitable basis, we may lose market share and our consolidated results of operations, financial position or cash flows could be materially and adversely affected.

Customers and vendors in the foodservice, hospitality, travel, healthcare, energy, life sciences, food processing and pulp and paper industries, as well as other industries we serve, have consolidated in recent years and that trend may continue. This consolidation could have a material adverse impact on our ability to retain customers and on our pricing, margins and consolidated results of operations.

Our multi-year contracts with some of our customers include terms affecting our pricing flexibility. There can be no assurance that these restraints will not have a material adverse impact on our margins and consolidated results of operations.

As a manufacturer and supplier of chemical products, there is a potential for chemicals to be accidentally spilled, released or discharged, either in liquid or gaseous form, during production, transportation, storage or use. Such a release could result in environmental contamination as well as a human or animal health hazard. Accordingly, such a release could have a material adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations, financial position or cash flows.

The prices of raw materials used in our business fluctuate, and in recent years we have experienced periods of significant increased raw material costs. Changes in raw material prices, unavailability of adequate and reasonably priced raw materials or substitutes for those raw materials, or the inability to obtain or renew supply agreements on favorable terms has materially and adversely affected our business and can in the future materially and adversely affect our consolidated results of operations, financial position or cash flows. In addition, volatility and disruption in economic activity and conditions could disrupt or delay the performance of our suppliers and thus impact our ability to obtain raw materials at favorable prices or on favorable terms, which may materially and adversely affect our business.