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Corpay, Inc. (CPAY)
:CPAY

Corpay Inc (CPAY) AI Stock Analysis

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CPCorpay Inc
(NYSE:CPAY)
75Outperform
Corpay Inc demonstrates strong financial performance with impressive growth in revenue and profitability. The company's strategic initiatives and positive guidance from the earnings call further bolster its growth prospects. However, the technical analysis signals caution due to potential bearish momentum, and the valuation is moderate. Overall, Corpay Inc is well-positioned for growth, but investors should be aware of external macroeconomic challenges.
Positive Factors
Growth Potential
CPAY's revenue model is highly recurring and profitable, indicating a long runway of growth ahead.
Market Position
CPAY is well-positioned as a leader in select B2B payment verticals, benefiting from broader B2B payment and vertical-specific tailwinds.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
The knee-jerk reaction to missing 4Q revenue & EBITDA, guiding FY25 revenue below consensus and seeing lower than expected organic growth in 4Q (+12% vs. +13%) is likely to weigh on the stock.

Corpay Inc (CPAY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Corpay Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCorpay Inc (CPAY) is a financial technology company specializing in providing comprehensive payment solutions and services to businesses. Operating across various sectors, Corpay offers products ranging from payment processing to currency risk management, helping companies manage and streamline their financial transactions globally.
How the Company Makes MoneyCorpay Inc earns revenue through a variety of streams centered around its financial services. Key revenue sources include transaction fees from payment processing services, subscription fees for access to its currency risk management platforms, and service fees for bespoke financial solutions. The company leverages significant partnerships with banks and financial institutions to enhance its service offerings, contributing to its revenue growth. Additionally, Corpay may generate earnings from foreign exchange spreads on currency transactions, further diversifying its income sources.

Corpay Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Corpay Inc exhibits strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, high profitability margins, and solid cash flow generation. Despite the high leverage, the company maintains a healthy equity position and strong Return on Equity. Overall, Corpay Inc demonstrates a stable financial position with promising growth prospects.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Corpay Inc has demonstrated robust revenue growth with a 5.77% increase in 2024. The company maintains a high gross profit margin, reaching 100% in 2024, indicating strong pricing power and cost management. The net profit margin improved to 25.26%, reflecting efficient operations and cost controls. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong, at 44.97% and 53.31% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency and profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 2.14, suggesting significant leverage, which may pose risk in volatile markets. However, the equity ratio is 17.39%, indicating a reasonable level of equity financing. Return on Equity (ROE) is healthy at 32.15%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Corpay Inc's cash flow statement shows a slight decline in operating cash flow to net income ratio, at 1.93. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.76, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow has slightly decreased compared to the previous year, suggesting stable cash flow management.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.97B3.76B3.43B2.83B2.39B
Gross Profit
3.11B2.94B2.66B2.27B1.79B
EBIT
1.79B1.66B1.45B1.24B972.26M
EBITDA
2.12B2.01B1.77B1.51B1.27B
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.00B981.89M954.33M839.50M704.22M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.55B1.41B1.44B1.52B934.90M
Total Assets
17.96B15.48B14.09B13.40B11.19B
Total Debt
8.00B6.72B7.04B5.98B4.30B
Net Debt
6.44B5.33B5.60B4.46B3.37B
Total Liabilities
14.81B12.19B11.55B10.54B7.84B
Stockholders Equity
3.12B3.28B2.54B2.87B3.36B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.77B1.95B603.37M1.09B1.39B
Operating Cash Flow
1.94B2.10B754.80M1.20B1.47B
Investing Cash Flow
-807.48M-380.72M-368.35M-715.93M-106.25M
Financing Cash Flow
404.99M-898.21M-311.23M343.93M-1.42B

Corpay Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price335.71
Price Trends
50DMA
364.20
Negative
100DMA
360.32
Negative
200DMA
324.10
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-6.30
Positive
RSI
32.64
Neutral
STOCH
18.47
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CPAY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 335.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 365.81, below the 50-day MA of 364.20, and above the 200-day MA of 324.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -6.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.47 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CPAY.

Corpay Inc Risk Analysis

Corpay Inc disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Corpay Inc reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Corpay Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$53.97B31.5446.16%2.62%4.18%5.67%
ADADP
77
Outperform
$124.69B31.9783.72%1.87%7.09%11.51%
75
Outperform
$23.58B24.0131.34%5.77%6.37%
XYXYZ
74
Outperform
$37.17B13.1914.50%10.06%38060.98%
GPGPN
73
Outperform
$24.95B16.356.94%0.99%4.68%63.39%
59
Neutral
$22.39B11.53-18.05%2.31%5.00%-25.89%
FIFIS
51
Neutral
$37.28B49.644.65%2.02%-17.38%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CPAY
Corpay Inc
335.71
42.19
14.37%
ADP
Automatic Data Processing
306.45
66.23
27.57%
FIS
Fidelity National Info
71.27
2.44
3.54%
GPN
Global Payments
100.77
-28.32
-21.94%
PAYX
Paychex
153.48
35.35
29.92%
XYZ
Block
60.00
-21.53
-26.41%

Corpay Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 5, 2025 | % Change Since: -13.63% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong revenue and EPS growth, impressive performance in Corporate Payments, and successful acquisitions. However, macroeconomic headwinds and specific operational challenges like gift card shipment delays and Lodging yield compression were notable concerns. Overall, the company appears well-positioned for continued growth, but faces some external pressures.
Highlights
Strong Q4 Revenue and EPS Growth
Reported Q4 revenue of $1,034 million, up 10%, and cash EPS of $5.36, up 21%.
Impressive Corporate Payments Growth
Corporate Payments line of business achieved 26% organic revenue growth in Q4, with sales growth accelerating to 36%.
Successful Full Year 2024 Performance
Cash EPS of $19, up over $2 on a print basis, and up 16% versus last year excluding Russia. Sales growth for the full year was over 20%.
Strong 2025 Guidance
Full year 2025 guidance at the mid-point of $4.4 billion in revenue and $21 of cash EPS, both up 11%.
Acquisition Synergies
Two 2024 Corporate Payment acquisitions, Paymerang and GPS, are expected to deliver $0.50 of cash EPS accretion in 2025.
Lowlights
Macro Headwinds Impacting Revenue
Macro conditions turned unfavorable, compressing print revenue by over $100 million and cash EPS by about $1.20 for 2025.
Gift Card Shipment Delays
Gift card shipments fell short of expectations, impacting Q4 revenue.
Acquisition and Divestiture Impact
Net benefit from December acquisition and divestiture activity was offset by a slight shortfall in gift revenue.
Lodging Business Yield Compression
Q4 Lodging yields decreased due to mix impact from FEMA activation business.
Company Guidance
During the Corpay Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the year 2025, projecting mid-point revenue of $4.4 billion and cash EPS of $21, both up 11% from the previous year. They anticipate organic revenue growth at a midpoint of 11% and are planning for overall sales or new bookings growth of 20% in 2025. Despite macroeconomic challenges such as weak international currencies and higher tax rates, which are expected to compress print revenue by over $100 million and cash EPS by about $1.20, Corpay remains optimistic about its underlying business fundamentals. The company highlighted key priorities, including expanding its Corporate Payments business, simplifying its portfolio, improving U.S. sales, and extending its Payables business into Europe. The guidance reflects strong business fundamentals and outlines strategic initiatives aimed at sustaining growth through acquisitions, divestitures, and enhanced sales strategies.

Corpay Inc Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Corpay Inc Achieves Record Revenues and Growth in 2024
Positive
Feb 5, 2025

Corpay, Inc. reported record revenues and adjusted net income for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, with organic revenue growth of 12% in the quarter and 20% for the year. Despite a decrease in GAAP net income for the quarter, the company achieved strong growth in its Corporate Payments segment, attributed to two significant acquisitions and improved sales and retention trends, positioning it for continued growth in 2025.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.