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Burlington Stores (BURL)
NYSE:BURL
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Burlington Stores
(NYSE:BURL)72Outperform
Positive Factors
Earnings
Expectations for the fourth quarter earnings per share are above consensus and guidance.
Foot Traffic
Placer traffic data show an acceleration in foot traffic to Burlington Stores, indicating increased customer visits.
Negative Factors
Sales Growth Guidance
Management is expected to guide future comparable sales growth lower than the consensus estimates.
Burlington Stores (BURL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.62B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)980.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.5
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth12.18%
EPS Growth60.91%
CountryUS
Employees71,049
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength53
IndustryRetail - Discretionary
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.30
Shares Outstanding63,481,003
10 Day Avg. Volume1,225,499
30 Day Avg. Volume980,328
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.52
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)1.43
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)33.90
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$333.00Price Target Upside44.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
Burlington Stores Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBurlington Stores, Inc. offers selection of in-season, fashion-focused merchandise, including: women's ready-to-wear apparel, accessories, footwear, menswear, youth apparel, baby, home, coats, beauty, toys and gifts. The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Burlington, NJ.
How the Company Makes MoneyBurlington Stores generates revenue primarily through the sale of goods in its retail stores. The company's off-price retail model allows it to make money by purchasing excess inventory from manufacturers and other retailers at reduced prices and then selling these products to consumers at a discount. Key revenue streams include sales of clothing, home goods, and accessories. Burlington's ability to quickly turn over inventory and offer fresh merchandise regularly attracts customers looking for bargains on brand-name products. Partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers are significant to its business model, as these relationships allow Burlington to access high-quality goods at lower costs. Additionally, the company's focus on operating efficiently with low overhead costs helps to maximize profit margins.
Burlington Stores Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Burlington Stores shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with impressive gross profit and cash flow margins. However, high leverage remains a concern, though improved equity and cash generation provide a solid base for growth.Income Statement
Burlington Stores shows strong revenue growth, with a notable increase in total revenue from past periods. The gross profit margin is robust at approximately 41.7% for TTM, and the net profit margin has improved significantly over time, indicating better cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy, reflecting strong operational efficiency. However, there is room for improvement in net profit margin compared to industry leaders.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio due to significant leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of over 1.3 in TTM, which could pose financial risks. However, the equity ratio has strengthened, indicating improved asset management. Return on equity shows positive growth, enhancing the company's appeal to investors. Still, high levels of debt could limit financial flexibility.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a strong operating cash flow relative to net income, suggesting healthy cash generation from operations. Free cash flow has grown significantly, indicating improved cash efficiency and potential for reinvestment or debt reduction. However, fluctuations in investing cash flows could suggest variable capital expenditure needs.80
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 10.48B | 9.72B | 8.70B | 9.32B | 5.76B | 7.29B | Gross Profit |
| 4.37B | 4.13B | 3.53B | 3.89B | 2.21B | 3.06B | EBIT |
| 777.32M | 548.03M | 410.04M | 776.57M | -333.64M | 635.67M | EBITDA |
| 1.05B | 851.24M | 636.38M | 837.12M | -119.47M | 852.94M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 470.33M | 339.65M | 230.12M | 408.84M | -216.50M | 465.12M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 925.36M | 925.36M | 872.62M | 1.09B | 1.38B | 403.07M | Total Assets |
| 7.71B | 7.71B | 7.27B | 7.09B | 6.78B | 5.59B | Total Debt |
| 4.80B | 4.80B | 4.70B | 4.45B | 4.64B | 3.63B | Net Debt |
| 3.88B | 3.88B | 3.83B | 3.36B | 3.26B | 3.23B | Total Liabilities |
| 6.71B | 6.71B | 6.47B | 6.33B | 6.32B | 5.07B | Stockholders Equity |
| 996.93M | 996.93M | 794.90M | 760.42M | 464.75M | 528.15M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 705.91M | 351.45M | 145.28M | 480.12M | -54.10M | 561.38M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 918.75M | 868.74M | 596.38M | 833.16M | 219.18M | 891.73M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -728.35M | -503.75M | -423.14M | -344.39M | -274.13M | -324.60M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 51.53M | -318.84M | -391.71M | -777.96M | 1.03B | -291.63M |
Burlington Stores Technical Analysis
Negative
230.27
Price Trends
271.62
Negative
270.04
Negative
258.65
Negative
Market Momentum
-10.54
Positive
31.33
Neutral
44.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BURL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 230.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 248.46, below the 50-day MA of 271.62, and below the 200-day MA of 258.65, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -10.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BURL.
Burlington Stores Risk Analysis
Burlington Stores disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Burlington Stores reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Burlington Stores Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $136.85B | 28.58 | 59.57% | 1.21% | 3.95% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $6.19B | 10.57 | 32.07% | 0.27% | -4.13% | -17.60% | |
73 Outperform | $44.86B | 21.40 | 42.93% | 1.07% | 8.54% | 25.99% | |
72 Outperform | $14.62B | 31.54 | 17.02% | ― | 12.18% | 60.91% | |
72 Outperform | $6.34B | 30.85 | 12.84% | ― | 12.48% | 32.49% | |
63 Neutral | $3.71B | 22.47 | 0.98% | 4.96% | -2.68% | -75.81% | |
60 Neutral | $13.01B | 10.45 | 0.79% | 3.53% | 1.60% | -22.47% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
BURL
Burlington Stores
230.27
24.41
11.86%
DDS
Dillard's
367.45
-4.99
-1.34%
M
Macy's
13.36
-5.87
-30.53%
ROST
Ross Stores
135.97
-10.70
-7.30%
TJX
TJX Companies
121.74
26.62
27.99%
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
103.39
28.47
38.00%
Burlington Stores Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Nov 26, 2024 | % Change Since: -21.05% | Next Earnings Date: Mar 6, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook with substantial growth plans and improvements in execution, but acknowledges challenges such as weather impacts and supply chain costs. Overall, the sentiment is positive, with significant focus on future growth and margin recovery.Highlights
Comp Store Sales Increase
Comp store sales for the third quarter increased by 6%, which was within the guidance range of 5% to 7%.
Long-Term Growth Expectations
Burlington expects to grow total sales to approximately $16 billion over the next 5 years, representing 60% aggregate growth versus 2023.
Operating Margin Recovery
Burlington aims to increase its operating margin to approximately 10% by 2028, with an expected operating income growth to $1.6 billion, nearly tripling the forecasted 2023 operating income.
New Store Openings
Burlington plans to open approximately 500 net new stores over the next 5 years, with an average of 100 net new store openings per year.
Q3 EPS Performance
Adjusted EPS for Q3 was $1.10, near the high end of the guidance range of $0.97 to $1.12.
Lowlights
Impact of Weather on Sales
Unseasonably warm temperatures in October negatively impacted sales, particularly in cold weather merchandise categories.
Adjustments for Bed Bath & Beyond Expenses
Approximately $10 million of expenses related to Bed Bath & Beyond stores were excluded from adjusted EPS calculations.
Q4 Guidance
Guidance for Q4 includes a comp sales range of negative 2% to flat, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales growth.
Supply Chain Cost Pressures
Higher supply chain costs have been a headwind, though specific initiatives are in place to drive efficiency savings and labor productivity improvements.
Company Guidance
During Burlington Stores, Inc.'s third-quarter earnings call for fiscal 2024, the company reported a 6% increase in comparable store sales, which landed at the midpoint of their guidance range of 5% to 7%. Despite unseasonably warm weather in October impacting outerwear sales, Burlington maintained its fourth-quarter guidance, expecting comp growth between negative 2% and flat. Looking ahead, Burlington shared a long-range financial model projecting total sales growth to approximately $16 billion over the next five years, representing around 60% aggregate growth from 2023, with a low double-digit average annual sales growth rate. Additionally, the company anticipates opening about 500 net new stores, achieving mid-single-digit comp sales growth annually, and expanding operating margins to 10% by 2028, supported by new store openings, operational efficiencies, and sales leverage. For 2024, Burlington forecasts a 2% comp growth and plans to capture 50 basis points in operating margin expansion.Burlington Stores Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Burlington Stores Appoints Shira Goodman to Board
Positive
Nov 26, 2024
Burlington Stores, Inc. has appointed Shira Goodman, a seasoned retail industry leader and former CEO of Staples, Inc., to its Board of Directors and Audit Committee starting January 1, 2025. This strategic move is expected to bring her extensive experience to the table, enhancing Burlington’s growth as they continue to implement the Burlington 2.0 strategy and drive sales and earnings. Goodman’s appointment highlights Burlington’s commitment to strengthening its leadership team as a nationally recognized off-price retailer.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.