Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) Risk Analysis

Regardless of the source or cause, any report of food-borne illnesses and other food safety issues, whether at one of our restaurants or in the industry or supply chain, generally could have a negative impact on our traffic and sales and adversely affect the reputation of our brands. Food safety issues could be caused by suppliers or distributors and, as a result, be out of our control and this risk may be exacerbated by supply chain issues, which could delay deliveries and necessitate alternative sourcing on short notice. Health concerns or outbreaks of disease in a food product could also reduce demand for particular menu offerings. Even instances of food-borne illness, food tampering or food contamination occurring solely at restaurants of other companies could result in negative publicity about the food service industry generally and adversely impact our sales. There is also the risk of allergen cross contamination in our restaurants despite precautionary measures to minimize the risk. Social media has dramatically increased the rate at which negative publicity, including as it relates to food-borne illnesses, can be disseminated before there is any meaningful opportunity to respond or address an issue. The occurrence of food-borne illnesses or food safety issues could also adversely affect the price and availability of affected ingredients, resulting in higher costs and lower margins.

Our success will continue to depend, to a significant extent, on our leadership team and other key management personnel. For example, during 2024, we appointed a new chief executive officer and chief financial officer and made other changes to our senior leadership team. While these changes were reflective of ongoing succession-planning, leadership transition can create risks as individuals are integrated into new roles, onboarding shifts management attention from business concerns, we may fail to retain other key personnel, or we may lose institutional knowledge. These risks and uncertainties could result in operational and administrative inefficiencies and additional added costs, which could adversely impact our results of operations. Further, the tight labor market in the United States has further strained and could continue to strain our ability to keep our restaurants fully staffed. If we are unable to attract and retain sufficiently experienced and capable management personnel, our business and financial results may suffer. Our restaurant-level management and team members are largely responsible for the quality of our service. Our guests may be dissatisfied and our sales may decline if we fail to recruit, train and retain managers and team members that effectively implement our business strategy and provide high-quality guest service. There is active competition for quality management personnel and hourly team members, and such competition could require us to pay higher wages or incur higher costs for retaining and incentivizing our management personnel and hourly team members. If we experience high turnover, we may experience higher labor costs and have a shortage of adequate management personnel required for future growth. A shortage of team members also could cause our restaurants to operate with reduced staff, which could adversely affect our ability to provide high-quality guest service.

We depend on frequent deliveries of fresh food products that meet our specifications, and we have a limited number of suppliers and distributors for our major products, such as beef. These factors subject us to the risk that shortages or interruptions in products could adversely affect the availability, quality or cost of products or require us to incur more costs to obtain adequate products if we are unable to manage supply chain risk. During 2024, we purchased more than 90% of our U.S. beef raw materials from four beef suppliers that represent a significant portion of the total beef marketplace in the U.S. Our dependence on a small number of suppliers subjects us to the risks of ingredient shortage, supply interruption, animal disease outbreak, and price volatility. An external disruption or an internal dispute could force us to sever ties with our suppliers, and we may not be able to find a suitable replacement in a timely or cost-efficient manner. Beef is a significant cost to us, and we may also incur higher costs to secure adequate suppliers or make substantial changes to our menu offerings, at the risk of material adverse harm to our business. Due to the nature of our industry, we expect to continue to purchase a substantial amount of our beef from a small number of suppliers. Global economic factors continue to place significant pressure on suppliers, making the supply environment more expensive and causing supply chain issues. Supply shortages or disruptions caused by inclement weather, climate change, natural disasters, pandemics, armed conflict, sanctions, financial or solvency issues of our suppliers or distributors, fuel increases or other conditions beyond our control could adversely affect our operations and operating results. In recent years, climate-related issues, including drought and flooding in our key supplier region, have led to volatility in the prices of our ingredients, such as produce and meats. In addition, if any of our suppliers or distributors were unable to fulfill their responsibilities or we were unable to maintain current purchasing terms or ensure service availability and we were unable to locate substitutes in a timely manner, we may encounter supply shortages, lose consumers and experience an increase in costs in seeking alternative supplier or distribution services. The failure to develop and maintain supplier and distributor relationships and any resulting disruptions to the provision of food and other supplies to our restaurant locations could adversely affect our operating results.

We are subject to lawsuits, administrative proceedings and claims that arise in the regular course of business. These matters typically involve claims by consumers and others regarding issues such as food borne illness, food safety, premises liability, personal injury, discrimination, "dram shop" statute liability, promotional advertising and other operational issues common to the food service industry, as well as environmental, data privacy, contract disputes and intellectual property infringement matters. We are also subject to employee claims against us based on, among other things, discrimination, harassment, wrongful termination, disability, or violation of wage and labor laws. We are also subject to the risk of being named a joint employer of workers of our franchisees for alleged violations of labor and wage laws. These claims may divert our financial and management resources that would otherwise be used to benefit our operations. The ongoing expense of or diversion of management attention due to any resulting lawsuits, any substantial settlement payment or damage award against us and any damage to our reputation could adversely affect our business and results of operations. Significant legal fees and costs in complex class action litigation or an adverse judgment or settlement that is not insured or is in excess of insurance coverage could have a material adverse effect on our financial position and results of operations.

We are subject to income and other taxes in the United States and numerous foreign jurisdictions. Our effective income tax rate and other taxes in the future could be adversely affected by a number of factors, including changes in the mix of earnings in countries with different statutory tax rates, changes in the valuation of deferred tax assets and liabilities, an "ownership change" as defined under Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code, changes in U.S. or foreign tax laws, including the 15% global minimum tax under the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development ("OECD") Pillar Two ("Pillar Two"), Global Anti-Base Erosion rules, uncertainty in the interpretation of tax laws, comprehensive tax reform measures or other legislative changes, particularly as a result of the recent U.S. elections, and the outcome of income tax audits and tax litigation, such as in Brazil. Further, differences in interpretations of Pillar Two and other rules by multiple jurisdictions may cause increased complexities as to compliance and increased audit controversy with tax authorities in jurisdictions where we operate. Although we believe our tax estimates are reasonable, the final determination of tax audits and tax litigation could be materially different from our historical income tax provisions and accruals. These results could have a material effect on our results of operations or cash flows in the period or periods for which these determinations are made. In addition, our effective income tax rate and our results may be impacted by our ability to realize deferred tax benefits, including our FICA tip credit carryforwards, and by any increases or decreases of our valuation allowances applied to our existing deferred tax assets.

In recent years, there has been an increasing focus from certain investors, customers, consumers, employees, state, federal and international governments and agencies, and other stakeholders concerning corporate citizenship and sustainability matters, including practices and disclosures related to environmental stewardship; social responsibility; diversity, equity and inclusion; and workplace rights. Companies across all industries are facing increasing scrutiny relating to their corporate citizenship and sustainability practices, including from opponents of these initiatives. We are also subject to corporate citizenship and sustainability disclosure rules and regulations and institutional investor voting policies that seek this information, making it more accessible for scrutiny. Changing consumer preferences may result in increased demands regarding our products and supply chain and their respective environmental and social impact, including on sustainability. These demands could require additional transparency, due diligence, and reporting and could cause us to incur additional costs or to make changes to our operations to comply with such demands. We may also determine that certain changes are required in anticipation of further evolution of consumer preferences and demands. Increased focus and activism related to corporate citizenship and sustainability may also result in investors reconsidering their investment decisions as a result of their assessment of a company's corporate citizenship and sustainability practices. In addition, corporate diversity, equity and inclusion practices have recently come under increasing challenges from advocacy groups and federal and state officials through media campaigns, lawsuits and executive orders. Any failure or perceived failure by us to adequately address stakeholder expectations and legal requirements regarding corporate citizenship, including diversity, equity and inclusion, employee health, safety and welfare, and workplace rights, among others, may damage our reputation and adversely affect our business and results of operations. Further, concern over climate change and other environmental sustainability matters, has and may in the future result in new or increased legal and federal and state regulatory requirements to provide extensive disclosure regarding and to reduce or mitigate impacts to the environment, including greenhouse gas emissions, alternative energy policies, water consumption, packaging and waste management, responsible sourcing and other sustainability initiatives. For example, state, federal and international regulations on sustainability matters, including the recently enacted Climate Corporate Data Accountability Act and the Climate-Related Financial Risk Act in California, have been or may be implemented that will require reporting and third-party assurance on greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental matters. If we fail to achieve goals, targets, or objectives we may set with respect to corporate citizenship and sustainability matters, if we do not meet or comply with new regulations or evolving consumer, investor, industry, or stakeholder expectations and standards, including those related to reporting, or if we are perceived to have not responded appropriately to the growing concern for corporate citizenship and sustainability matters, we may face legal or regulatory actions, the imposition of fines, penalties, or other sanctions, adverse publicity, and decreased demand from consumers, or the price of our common stock could decline, any of which could materially harm our reputation or have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or operating results.

A substantial number of restaurant operators compete directly and indirectly with us with respect to price, service, location and food quality, some of which are well-established with significant resources. There is also active competition for management, team members and other personnel, and attractive suitable real estate sites. Consumer tastes, nutritional and dietary trends, traffic patterns and the type, number and location of competing restaurants often affect the restaurant business, and our competitors may react more efficiently, creatively and effectively to those conditions. In addition, our competitors may generate or better implement business strategies that improve the value and relevance of their brands and reputation, relative to ours. For example, our competitors may more successfully implement menu or technology initiatives, such as remote ordering, social media or mobile technology platforms that expedite or enhance the customer experience, or artificial intelligence to develop new customer insights. Further, we face growing competition from quick service and fast-casual restaurants, the supermarket industry and meal kit and food delivery providers, with the improvement of prepared food offerings. and the trend towards convergence in grocery, deli, delivery, retail and restaurant services. Further, if this competitive environment and the breadth of alternatives results in a decline in casual dining customer traffic, it could make our financial operations dependent on our ability to increase our market share within the hyper-competitive casual dining segment. We believe all of the above factors have increased competitive pressures in the casual dining sector in recent periods and we believe they will continue to present a challenging competitive environment in future periods. If we are unable to continue to compete effectively, our traffic, sales and margins could decline and our business, financial condition and results of operations would be adversely affected.

Food service businesses are affected by changes in consumer tastes and demographic trends. For instance, if prevailing health or dietary preferences cause consumers to avoid steak and other products we offer in any of our concepts in favor of foods or ingredients that are perceived as healthier or otherwise reflect popular demand, our business and operating results would be harmed. Various factors such as menu labeling rules, nutritional guidelines and academic studies, whether issued by government agencies, research institutions, or advocacy organizations, may impact consumer choice and cause consumers to select foods other than those that are offered by our restaurants. Consumer preference on sourcing, or in response to environmental and animal welfare concerns may also cause some groups of consumers to select foods other than those that are offered by our restaurants. Our business may be negatively impacted by customer preferences regarding third-party delivery apps and services with which we engage, particularly if the availability, performance and reliability of the apps or services adversely impact customer satisfaction. If we are unable to anticipate or successfully respond to changes in consumer preferences, our results of operations could be adversely affected, generally or in particular concepts or markets.

Challenging economic, political and social conditions may negatively impact consumer spending and thus cause a challenging sales environment in the casual dining sector and a decline in our financial results. For example, international, domestic and regional economic conditions, continued economic downturn or recession, or slowing or stalled recovery therefrom, unemployment levels, consumer income levels, financial market volatility, credit conditions and availability, consumer debt levels, inflation, increased energy prices, weakness in the housing market, stock market performance, rising interests rates, tariffs and trade barriers, pandemics or public health concerns, population growth, changes in government and central bank monetary policies, social unrest and governmental, political and budget matters may have a negative effect on consumer confidence and discretionary spending, which the restaurant industry depends upon. Further, it is difficult to predict what impact, if any, the U.S. presidential and congressional election outcomes could have on consumer confidence and discretionary spending. The effects of international trade conflicts between the U.S. and its global trade partners including, without limitation, China, Mexico and Canada, may have an adverse impact on economic conditions, commodity pricing and consumer spending. In addition, the effects on the global economy from the ongoing conflicts in Israel and Ukraine, particularly if they escalate or broaden, are uncertain. Terrorist attacks, heightened security requirements, attacks of critical infrastructure, protests, demonstrations, riots, civil disturbance, disobedience, insurrection, customer intimidation, mass shootings or social and other political unrest, such as those seen in recent years, have and may continue to result in restrictions, curfews or other actions and give rise to significant changes in regional and global economic conditions. If such events or disruptions persist for a prolonged period of time, our overall business and results of operations may be adversely affected. In addition, it is difficult to predict what impact, if any, changes in federal policy, including tax, economic and monetary policies, will have on our industry, the economy as a whole, consumer confidence and discretionary spending. As a result, the nature, timing and impact on our business of potential changes to the current legal and regulatory frameworks are uncertain. A decline in economic, political or social conditions or negative developments with respect to any of the other factors mentioned above, or a perception that such decline or negative developments are imminent, generally or in particular markets in which we operate, and our consumers' reactions to these trends could result in increased pressure with respect to our pricing, traffic levels, commodity and other costs and the continuation of our innovation and productivity initiatives, which could negatively impact our business and results of operations. Further, poor economic conditions may force nearby businesses to shut down, which could cause our restaurant locations to be less attractive.

We have a significant number of restaurants outside of the United States, and we intend to continue our efforts to grow internationally. There is no assurance that international operations will be profitable or international growth will continue. In addition, if we have a significant concentration of restaurants in a foreign market, the impact of any negative local conditions can have a sizable impact on our results. Our foreign operations are subject to all of the same risks as our U.S. restaurants, as well as additional risks including, among others, international economic, political, social and legal conditions and the possibility of instability and unrest, differing cultures and consumer preferences, diverse government regulations and tax systems, cybersecurity threats, corruption, anti-American sentiment, the ability to source high-quality ingredients and other commodities in a cost-effective manner, uncertain or differing interpretations of rights and obligations in connection with international franchise agreements and the collection of ongoing royalties from international franchisees, the availability and costs of land, construction and financing, and the availability of experienced management, appropriate franchisees and operating partners. Local or regional events or conditions in our international markets could disrupt our business operations and affect our results. In recent years, there were protests in cities throughout the United States as well as globally, including in Hong Kong and Brazil, in connection with civil rights, liberties, and social and governmental reform. Currency regulations and fluctuations in exchange rates could also affect our performance. We have operations in many foreign countries, including a minority equity investment in our Brazil franchisees, direct investments in restaurants in Hong Kong and international franchisees. As a result, we may experience losses from fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates or any hedging arrangements that we enter into to offset such fluctuations, and such losses could adversely affect our overall sales and earnings. We are subject to governmental regulation of our foreign operations, including antitrust and tax requirements, anti-boycott regulations, import/export/customs regulations and other international trade regulations, the USA Patriot Act and the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Any new regulatory or trade initiatives could impact our operations in certain countries. Failure to comply with any such legal requirements could subject us to monetary liabilities and other sanctions, which could harm our business, results of operations and financial condition.

Adverse weather conditions and natural disasters and other unforeseen events, such as winter storms, severe temperatures, thunderstorms, floods, drought, fires, hurricanes and earthquakes, terrorist attacks, war and widespread/pandemic illness, and the effects of such events on economic conditions and consumer spending patterns, could disrupt our operations or supply chain and negatively impact our results of operations. These events may result in lost restaurant sales, as well as property damage, lost products, interruptions in supply, and increased costs, temporary and prolonged restaurant closures may occur and consumer traffic may decline due to the actual or perceived effects from these events. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic, severe winter weather conditions, wildfires and hurricanes have impacted our traffic, and that of our franchisees, and results of operations in recent years. Although we cannot predict when or where we will be negatively impacted by widespread illnesses or pandemics, adverse weather events, to the extent that climate change or other factors result in more frequent, widespread or severe events, it could adversely impact our results. U.S. and foreign governmental officials also have placed an increasing focus on environmental matters, including climate change, reduction of greenhouse gases and water consumption. This increased focus could lead to legislative, regulatory or other efforts to combat these environmental concerns. These efforts could result in further increases in taxes, cost of supplies, transportation and utilities, which could increase our operating costs and those of our franchisees and require future investments in facilities and equipment. There may also be increased pressure for us to make commitments, set targets or establish goals to take actions to meet them, which could expose us and our franchisees to market, operational, execution and reputational costs or risks. Many of our corporate systems and processes and corporate support for our restaurant operations are centralized at one location in Tampa, Florida. We have disaster recovery procedures and business continuity plans in place to address crisis-level events, including hurricanes and other natural disasters, and backup and off-site locations for recovery of electronic and other forms of data and information, and the ability to manage our business remotely. However, if we are unable to fully implement our disaster recovery plans, we may experience delays in recovery of data, inability to perform vital corporate functions, tardiness in required reporting and compliance, failures to adequately support field operations and other breakdowns in normal communication and operating procedures that could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations and exposure to administrative and other legal claims. In addition, these threats are constantly evolving, which increases the difficulty of accurately and timely predicting, planning for and protecting against the threat. As a result, our disaster recovery procedures and business continuity plans may not adequately address all threats we face or protect us from loss. The United States and other countries have experienced, or may experience in the future, outbreaks of viruses or other diseases. If a regional or global health pandemic occurs, depending upon its location, duration and severity, our business could be severely affected. In the event a health pandemic occurs, customers might avoid public places, and local, regional or national governments might limit or ban public gatherings to halt or delay the spread of disease. Jurisdictions in which we have restaurants may impose mandatory closures or impose restrictions on operations. If a virus is transmitted by human contact or respiratory transmission, our employees or guests could become infected, or could choose, or be advised, to avoid gathering in public places, any of which would adversely affect our restaurant guest traffic or our ability to perform functions at the corporate level. A regional or global health pandemic might also adversely affect our business by disrupting or delaying production and delivery of materials and products in our supply chain and by causing staffing shortages in our stores.

Our trademarks, including Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar and Bloomin' Onion, and other proprietary rights are important to our success and our competitive position. The protective actions that we take may not be sufficient to prevent unauthorized usage or imitation by others, which could harm our image, brand or competitive position. Furthermore, our ability to protect trademarks and other proprietary rights may be more limited in certain international markets where we operate.

A cyber incident that compromises the information of our consumers or employees, whether affecting our technological systems or those of third-party service providers that we rely on, could result in widespread negative publicity, damage to the reputation of our brands, a loss of consumers, an interruption of our business and legal liabilities. The majority of our restaurant sales are by credit or debit cards, and we maintain certain personal information regarding our employees and confidential information about our customers, franchisees and suppliers. Although we segment our card data environment and employ a cybersecurity protection program based upon industry frameworks, as well as scan and improve our environment for any threats and identify and remediate vulnerabilities, perform penetration testing and engage third parties to assess effectiveness of our security measures with oversight by our Audit Committee, there are no assurances that such programs will prevent or detect all cybersecurity breaches or technological failures. Our operations and corporate functions rely heavily on information systems, including point-of-sale processing in our restaurants, management of our supply chain, payment of obligations, collection of cash, data warehousing to support analytics, finance and accounting systems, payroll and human resource systems, mobile technologies to enhance the customer experience and other various processes and procedures, some of which are handled by third parties. We have implemented a risk management program designed to identify and mitigate risks related to utilizing third-party vendors. The program also includes documenting audit and compliance reports to prevent these third-party vendors from negatively impacting our business operations. Our ability to efficiently and effectively manage our business depends significantly on the reliability and capacity of these systems. The failure of these systems to operate effectively, system maintenance problems, upgrading or transitioning to new platforms, or any cyber incident relating to these systems could expose our systems or information to cyber threats, result in delays in consumer service, reduced efficiency in our operations or result in negative publicity. Despite our security measures, our technology systems remain vulnerable to damage, disability or failures due to physical theft, fire, power loss, telecommunications failure or other catastrophic events, as well as from internal and external security breaches, employee error or malfeasance, denial of service, hacking, "phishing" attacks, social engineering, malware, ransomware, viruses, worms and other attacks or disruptive problems, which have increased in sophistication, frequency and duration in recent years. In addition, the rapid evolution and increased adoption of artificial intelligence technologies increases our cybersecurity risks, including generative artificial intelligence augmenting threat actors' technological sophistication to enhance existing or to create new malware. We have been, and will continue to be, the target of cyber and other security threats and incidents, including those common to most industries and those targeting us due to the confidential consumer information we obtain through our electronic processing of credit and debit card transactions. Like other restaurants and retailers, we are also susceptible to claims for purportedly fraudulent transactions arising out of actual or alleged theft of credit or debit card information. A security breach or even a perceived security breach or failure to appropriately respond to a cyber incident could result in litigation or governmental investigation, as well as damage to our reputation and brands. A claim or investigation resulting from a cyber or other security threat to our systems and data may have a material adverse effect on our business and distract management from running the business. Responses to cybersecurity incidents also have the potential of incurring significant remediation costs, to the extent such costs are not covered by our applicable insurance policies. As cybersecurity risks and applicable laws and regulations evolve, we may incur significant additional costs in technology, third-party services and personnel to maintain systems designed to anticipate and prevent cyber-attacks. We are subject to a variety of continuously evolving laws and regulations regarding privacy, data protection and data security at federal, state and international levels. The California Consumer Privacy Act, for example, became effective January 1, 2020 and provides a private right of action to California residents related to data breaches and imposes disclosure and other requirements on companies with respect to their data collection, use and sharing practices as they relate to California residents. Other states and countries in which we operate have enacted, or are proposing to enact, similar laws or the laws expanding existing privacy rights. New areas of litigation related to privacy rights continue to emerge. Compliance with newly developed laws and regulations, which are subject to change and uncertain interpretations, may cause us to incur substantial costs.