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ASML Holding (ASML)
NASDAQ:ASML
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ASML Holding
(NASDAQ:ASML)77Outperform
Positive Factors
Bookings and demand
ASML reported 4Q24 system bookings of approximately €7.1B, significantly higher than the prior quarter, suggesting strong demand.
Revenue outlook
ASML's revenue guide for 1Q25 is higher than prior estimates, indicating strong expected performance in the near term.
Negative Factors
Earnings per share
Based on the company's guide update, the implied 2025 EPS is estimated to be in the approximately €25/share range, below the recently lowered estimate of €29.94.
Gross margin expectations
ASML expects GM% at 49%-50%; previously estimated at 50.2% with consensus at 51.0%.
Revenue forecast
ASML expects 2025 revenue of €30B-€35B, which is below the recently lowered estimate of €36.1B and the Street at €36.0B.
ASML Holding (ASML) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$271.75B
Dividend Yield0.82%
Average Volume (3M)1.88M
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.0
Beta (1Y)1.72
Revenue Growth2.53%
EPS Growth-3.33%
CountryUS
Employees42,416
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength48
IndustrySemiconductors and Equipment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)20.80
Shares Outstanding393,830,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,712,176
30 Day Avg. Volume1,881,351
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)9.64
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$927.38Price Target Upside30.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
ASML Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionASML Holding NV engages in the development, production, marketing, sale and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment, consisting of lithography related systems. It mainly caters the makers of memory chips and logic chips. The company was founded on April 1, 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands.
How the Company Makes MoneyASML makes money primarily through the sale of its advanced lithography systems to semiconductor manufacturers around the world. The company generates revenue through the sale of EUV and DUV lithography systems, which are essential for chipmakers to produce cutting-edge semiconductors. Apart from the initial sale of these complex machines, ASML also earns revenue from service and maintenance contracts, software solutions, and upgrades to existing systems. Additionally, ASML benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with major players in the semiconductor industry, often engaging in research and development initiatives that further enhance its technological offerings and market position.
ASML Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
ASML demonstrates strong financial health with substantial revenue growth, robust profitability margins, a solid balance sheet with low leverage, and excellent cash flow generation. Despite a slight increase in debt levels, overall financial performance remains highly favorable.Income Statement
ASML has shown strong revenue growth, with a notable increase from $21.17 billion in 2022 to $28.26 billion in 2024. The company maintains high profitability, evidenced by a gross profit margin of 51.3% and a net profit margin of 26.8% in 2024. Consistent EBIT and EBITDA margins around the 30% mark further highlight operational efficiency and profitability in the TTM.90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
ASML's balance sheet is robust, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20, indicating prudent financial leverage. The equity ratio of 38.0% suggests a strong capital structure, while a return on equity of 41.0% reflects effective management of shareholder funds. However, a slight increase in total debt over the years warrants monitoring.85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
ASML's cash flow generation is impressive, with free cash flow growing significantly over time, reaching $9.1 billion in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.47 highlights the company's ability to efficiently convert profits into cash. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.20 underscores strong cash profitability.92
Very Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 28.26B | 27.56B | 21.17B | 18.61B | 13.98B | Gross Profit |
| 14.49B | 14.14B | 10.51B | 9.81B | 6.80B | EBIT |
| 9.02B | 9.04B | 7.32B | 6.75B | 4.05B | EBITDA |
| 9.94B | 9.98B | 7.00B | 6.99B | 4.53B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 7.57B | 7.84B | 5.62B | 5.88B | 3.55B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 12.74B | 7.01B | 7.38B | 7.59B | 7.35B | Total Assets |
| 48.59B | 39.96B | 38.83B | 30.23B | 27.27B | Total Debt |
| 3.68B | 4.63B | 4.26B | 4.08B | 4.66B | Net Debt |
| -9.06B | -2.37B | -3.01B | -2.88B | -1.39B | Total Liabilities |
| 30.11B | 26.51B | 27.54B | 20.09B | 13.40B | Stockholders Equity |
| 18.48B | 13.45B | 11.29B | 10.14B | 13.87B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 9.10B | 3.25B | 7.20B | 9.95B | 3.67B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 11.17B | 5.44B | 8.49B | 10.85B | 4.63B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -2.61B | -2.69B | -1.92B | -72.00M | -1.35B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -2.83B | -3.00B | -7.19B | -9.89B | -753.00M |
ASML Holding Technical Analysis
Negative
708.22
Price Trends
729.81
Negative
718.31
Negative
818.26
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.86
Positive
43.43
Neutral
18.77
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASML, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 708.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 735.66, below the 50-day MA of 729.81, and below the 200-day MA of 818.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.77 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASML.
ASML Holding Risk Analysis
ASML Holding disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ASML Holding reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ASML Holding Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $98.12B | 23.23 | 48.75% | 1.13% | 13.21% | 27.25% | |
77 Outperform | $271.75B | 34.01 | 40.98% | 0.82% | 2.53% | -3.33% | |
76 Outperform | $124.20B | 20.00 | 34.06% | 1.05% | 4.45% | -10.01% | |
72 Outperform | $22.54B | 21.63 | 10.03% | 2.27% | -0.62% | -1.08% | |
70 Outperform | $17.34B | 32.29 | 14.62% | 0.45% | 5.52% | 16.59% | |
69 Neutral | $92.89B | 29.40 | 89.51% | 0.91% | 12.19% | 20.80% | |
59 Neutral | $22.39B | 11.53 | -18.05% | 2.31% | 5.00% | -25.89% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ASML
ASML Holding
708.22
-288.58
-28.95%
ASX
ASE Technology Holding Co
9.98
-0.41
-3.95%
AMAT
Applied Materials
152.87
-57.53
-27.34%
KLAC
KLA
699.00
-10.13
-1.43%
LRCX
Lam Research
76.44
-20.76
-21.36%
TER
Teradyne
107.23
0.91
0.86%
ASML Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Jan 29, 2025 | % Change Since: 3.83% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 16, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong financial performance for Q4 2024, with revenue and gross margin exceeding expectations. The company highlighted significant progress in High NA EUV systems and a positive outlook for AI-driven demand in 2025. However, challenges such as a decline in Logic and EUV sales, and potential geopolitical risks were noted. Overall, the highlights outweigh the lowlights, suggesting a positive sentiment.Highlights
Exceeded Revenue Guidance
Fourth quarter 2024 net sales were €9.3 billion, above the high end of guidance, driven by installed base revenue and High NA EUV system sales.
Strong Gross Margin
Gross margin for Q4 2024 was 51.7%, surpassing guidance due to lower than planned costs for new product introductions.
Record Free Cash Flow
Q4 2024 free cash flow reached €8.839 billion, significantly higher than the previous quarter.
High NA EUV Progress
Successfully completed installation and customer acceptance of two High NA EUV systems, with positive feedback from customers.
Optimistic 2025 Outlook
ASML expects 2025 revenue between €30 billion and €35 billion, driven by strong AI demand and potential growth in Logic and Memory segments.
Increased Shareholder Returns
Returned €3 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share buybacks.
Lowlights
Logic Revenue Decline
Logic system revenue decreased by 17% compared to 2023, totaling €13.2 billion for 2024.
EUV System Sales Decline
EUV system sales for 2024 were €8.3 billion, a 9% decrease compared to 2023.
China Sales Normalization
Expectations for China business to normalize in 2025 after relatively high sales in 2023 and 2024 due to backlog fulfillment.
Geopolitical Risks
Potential risks affecting 2025 outlook include customer dynamics and geopolitical factors that could impact sales.
Company Guidance
During ASML's Q4 2024 financial results call, the company provided guidance for Q1 2025 and beyond, highlighting key metrics and expectations. For Q1 2025, ASML anticipates total net sales between €7.5 billion and €8 billion, with an installed base management sales projection of approximately €2.1 billion. The gross margin is expected to range from 52% to 53%, driven by the absence of High NA revenue recognition and tempered by lower immersion volume. R&D expenses are forecasted at around €1.14 billion, while SG&A is expected to be approximately €290 million. For the full year 2025, ASML projects revenue between €30 billion and €35 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 53%. The company emphasized the role of artificial intelligence as a significant growth driver and noted potential geopolitical risks and customer dynamics that could influence results. ASML also announced a total dividend for 2024 of €6.4 per ordinary share, with a final dividend proposal of €1.84 per share.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.