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Antero Resources (AR)
NYSE:AR
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Antero Resources
(NYSE:AR)73Outperform
Positive Factors
Cost Management
The highlight this quarter was capex of $142m compared to an estimate of $200m, indicating better cost management.
Financial Performance
AR reported impressive 4Q24 results exceeding our estimates across all key metrics.
Negative Factors
Valuation
The stock is trading at higher EV/EBITDA multiples compared to the peer average, which could indicate a valuation concern.
Antero Resources (AR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.36B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)202.3
Beta (1Y)1.31
Revenue Growth-4.22%
EPS Growth-77.20%
CountryUS
Employees616
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength57
IndustryFossil Fuels
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.18
Shares Outstanding311,180,000
10 Day Avg. Volume5,118,205
30 Day Avg. Volume4,729,606
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)2.60
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)10.10
P/FCF Ratio18.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$44.67Price Target Upside22.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
Antero Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAntero Resources Corp. is an independent oil and natural gas company. It engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, NGLs, and oil. The firm focuses on marketing and utilization of excess firm transportation capacity, and equity method investment in Antero Midstream Corporation. The company was founded by Paul M. Rady and Glen C. Warren, Jr. in June 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, CO.
How the Company Makes MoneyAntero Resources makes money through the production and sale of natural gas, NGLs, and oil. The company's revenue model is centered around the extraction and sale of these commodities from its extensive assets in the Appalachian Basin. Revenue is generated through the sale of natural gas and NGLs to a diverse customer base, including utilities, industrial customers, and other energy companies. Antero Resources also benefits from strategic midstream partnerships and joint ventures, which enhance its distribution capabilities and provide additional revenue streams through infrastructure and transportation services. Additionally, the company engages in hedging activities to manage commodity price risks, which can impact its overall earnings.
Antero Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Antero Resources demonstrates strong cash flow management and a stable equity position, but faces challenges with revenue volatility and high leverage. Profitability and operational efficiency need improvement.Income Statement
Antero Resources showed inconsistent revenue trends, with a significant drop from 2022 to 2024. Gross and net profit margins are volatile, with a recent net loss. EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a stable equity position but a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting significant leverage. The equity ratio indicates a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets. While the return on equity has been negative recently, the company maintains substantial asset backing.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains robust, supporting free cash flow despite recent net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating effective cash management. However, fluctuating cash flow trends pose a risk.78
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 4.33B | 4.28B | 8.29B | 5.79B | 3.08B | Gross Profit |
| 4.00B | 669.35M | 4.62B | 2.25B | -514.44M | EBIT |
| 460.00K | 453.13M | 4.44B | 2.08B | -864.86M | EBITDA |
| 859.55M | 1.23B | 3.29B | 699.51M | -592.73M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 57.23M | 242.92M | 1.90B | -154.11M | -1.26B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 0.00 | 0.00 | -3.45B | -3.42B | -2.61B | Total Assets |
| 13.01B | 13.62B | 14.12B | 13.90B | 13.15B | Total Debt |
| 4.03B | 4.51B | 4.63B | 5.55B | 5.62B | Net Debt |
| 4.03B | 4.51B | 8.08B | 8.97B | 8.23B | Total Liabilities |
| 5.79B | 6.41B | 7.10B | 7.83B | 7.06B | Stockholders Equity |
| 7.02B | 6.98B | 6.75B | 5.76B | 5.77B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 849.29M | 827.20M | 2.89B | 1.55B | 687.55M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 849.29M | 994.72M | 3.05B | 1.66B | 735.64M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -714.15M | -1.14B | -943.61M | -710.78M | -530.06M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -135.13M | 146.05M | -2.11B | -949.33M | -205.58M |
Antero Resources Technical Analysis
Neutral
36.52
Price Trends
37.34
Negative
33.62
Positive
31.89
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.36
Positive
43.33
Neutral
23.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 36.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.44, below the 50-day MA of 37.34, and above the 200-day MA of 31.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AR.
Antero Resources Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $29.87B | 111.56 | 1.12% | 1.29% | 3.00% | -90.88% | |
77 Outperform | $22.33B | 7.55 | 19.94% | 4.21% | 3.00% | -21.63% | |
74 Outperform | $4.75B | 25.86 | 13.01% | 2.67% | 16.89% | 55.94% | |
73 Outperform | $11.36B | 202.33 | 0.81% | ― | -4.22% | -77.20% | |
57 Neutral | $8.34B | 5.35 | -5.98% | 7.29% | 0.20% | -69.45% | |
56 Neutral | $8.96B | 34.00 | 6.77% | 0.86% | -7.57% | -69.25% | |
48 Neutral | $4.30B | 9.01 | -2.21% | ― | -4.26% | -105.72% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AR
Antero Resources
36.52
9.65
35.91%
CNX
CNX Resources
29.93
8.76
41.38%
DVN
Devon Energy
34.25
-9.66
-22.00%
EQT
EQT
50.00
13.01
35.17%
AROC
Archrock
25.11
7.47
42.35%
RRC
Range Resources
37.86
5.40
16.64%
Antero Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 12, 2025 | % Change Since: -7.26% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented several positive operational efficiencies, record NGL pricing premiums, and a strong market position, contributing to positive free cash flow. However, there were minor concerns regarding production decline due to contract expiration and potential tariff impacts.Highlights
Record-Breaking Cost Efficiency
Drilling and completion capital was $620 million, 8% below initial guidance and nearly $300 million below 2023 CapEx. Production was 2% above initial guidance, averaging over 3.4 Bcf equivalent per day.
Drilling and Completion Efficiencies
Drill time reduced to 10 days, a 30% improvement from 2022. Completion stages per day averaged 12.2 in 2024, a 53% increase from 2022.
Record Premiums in NGL Pricing
Antero realized a $1.41 per barrel premium over Mont Belvieu in 2024. The fourth quarter premium was $3.09 per barrel, the highest in company history.
Positive Free Cash Flow
Despite a $2.27 natural gas price, Antero generated $73 million in positive free cash flow in 2024.
Strong Natural Gas Market Position
Antero expects a premium to NYMEX in the range of $0.10 to $0.20 in 2025, up from $0.02 in 2024, due to strategic transport positions.
Lowlights
Decline in Ethane Production
The expiration of a contract will result in a reduction of about 30 million cubic feet equivalent per day in production.
Potential Cost Increases from Tariffs
New tariffs on imported materials could result in a cost increase of $5 to $10 million.
Company Guidance
During Antero Resources' fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call, significant guidance was provided for future operations. The company reported a drilling and completion capital expenditure of $620 million, which was 8% below initial guidance and almost $300 million less than the previous year. Production exceeded expectations, averaging over 3.4 Bcf equivalent per day, a 2% increase from initial guidance. Antero highlighted drilling efficiencies, reducing well completion times to 10 days, a 30% improvement from 2022, and increasing completion stages by 53% compared to 2022. For 2025, Antero expects C3+ NGLs to achieve a premium of $1.50 to $2.50 per barrel over Mont Belvieu prices, and anticipates a $1.6 billion free cash flow based on current natural gas strip prices. Additionally, the company forecasts an increase in natural gas price premiums to NYMEX, ranging from $0.10 to $0.20, driven by strategic transportation capacity and rising LNG demand.Antero Resources Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Antero Resources Announces Redemption of Senior Notes
Neutral
Feb 18, 2025
On February 18, 2025, Antero Resources Corporation announced the full redemption of its 8.375% senior notes due in 2026, amounting to $96.87 million. The redemption will occur on March 5, 2025, at a price of 102.094% of the principal plus accrued interest, potentially impacting its financial obligations and investor relations.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.