American Public Education (APEI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $424.04M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 122.41K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 43.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: 4.00%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,493
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 94
• Industry: Education & Training Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.54
• Shares Outstanding: 18,036,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 109,494
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 122,410
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.64
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 62.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $25.33
• Price Target Upside: 7.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

APEI's overall score reflects a solid financial performance with strong cash flow and improved profitability, despite challenges in sustaining revenue growth and operational efficiency. The earnings call highlighted positive enrollment trends and financial outperformance, though future cost pressures were noted. The strategic consolidation of institutions is viewed positively, potentially enhancing the company's market position and financial stability. However, the stock's high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns.

Positive Factors

Earnings

American Public Education reported the results of its fourth quarter and year that topped expectations.

Profitability

The company seems well positioned to achieve its guidance, given the strengthening enrollment trends across educational units and improving profitability at the nursing colleges, particularly Rasmussen.

Valuation

APEI’s shares are trading at a discount compared to the for-profit postsecondary peer group average, indicating potential value.

Negative Factors

Guidance

Management’s updated full-year 2024 guidance for revenue is slightly below its prior guidance.

American Public Education Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) is a provider of online and on-campus postsecondary education. The company operates through several segments, including American Public University System (APUS) and Hondros College of Nursing. APUS offers a range of degree and certificate programs primarily serving military and public service communities, while Hondros College focuses on nursing education. APEI is committed to providing accessible, affordable, and high-quality education to its students.

How the Company Makes Money

APEI generates revenue primarily through tuition fees paid by students enrolled in its educational programs. The company benefits from its diverse program offerings across different segments, catering to a wide range of students, including military personnel, public service professionals, and aspiring nurses. Additionally, APEI may receive funding through financial aid programs and partnerships with government agencies or military organizations, which help support students' education costs. The company's business model focuses on maintaining a robust online platform and offering flexible learning options to attract and retain students.

American Public Education Financial Statement Overview

Summary

American Public Education demonstrated improved profitability and financial stability in 2024, with positive net income and a strong equity base. The company faces challenges in sustaining revenue growth and enhancing operational efficiency, as indicated by low EBITDA margins. Cash flow generation remains a strength, supporting operational and financial resilience.

Income Statement

American Public Education showed a notable improvement in profitability for 2024, with a turnaround in EBIT and net income, leading to positive net profit and EBIT margins. However, revenue growth was modest at 4.0%, and the EBITDA margin remains low, indicating potential challenges in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a healthy equity position with an equity ratio of 53.3%. The debt-to-equity ratio improved due to reduced total debt, enhancing financial stability. However, the return on equity is low at 5.3%, suggesting limited profitability relative to shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

APEI's cash flow statement shows positive free cash flow and an increase in free cash flow growth rate by -12.1% from the prior year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates strong cash generation relative to net income, though the free cash flow to net income ratio is modest, signaling room for improvement.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
624.56M	600.54M	606.33M	418.80M	321.79M
	Gross Profit
328.86M	307.68M	317.86M	246.18M	199.62M
	EBIT
33.07M	-48.31M	154.98M	32.94M	26.46M
	EBITDA
52.37M	-20.49M	-101.39M	50.77M	38.59M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
16.11M	-47.29M	-114.97M	17.75M	18.82M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
158.94M	116.66M	102.56M	122.63M	227.69M
	Total Assets
570.10M	557.39M	615.06M	725.61M	371.02M
	Total Debt
107.20M	204.73M	208.97M	243.71M	8.85M
	Net Debt
-51.74M	88.07M	106.41M	121.09M	-218.84M
	Total Liabilities
266.22M	265.41M	265.33M	310.00M	64.09M
	Stockholders Equity
303.88M	291.98M	349.73M	415.61M	306.93M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
27.79M	31.62M	12.83M	4.44M	39.88M
	Operating Cash Flow
48.87M	45.51M	29.21M	16.27M	44.81M
	Investing Cash Flow
-21.08M	-13.77M	-13.67M	-336.67M	-4.16M
	Financing Cash Flow
-13.19M	-16.86M	-35.71M	242.34M	-15.71M

American Public Education Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 23.51
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APEI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.74, above the 50-day MA of 22.10, and above the 200-day MA of 18.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APEI.

American Public Education Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PRDO	78 Outperform	$1.70B	11.76	16.39%	1.94%	-4.05%	1.50%
LOPE	72 Outperform	$4.89B	22.28	30.13%	―	7.50%	13.70%
UTI	72 Outperform	$1.46B	27.53	21.41%	―	14.70%	275.89%
APEI	68 Neutral	$424.04M	43.23	5.41%	―	4.00%	―
STRA	68 Neutral	$1.92B	16.66	6.80%	3.08%	7.68%	61.28%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.84B	14.17	-16.36%	3.22%	1.30%	4.55%
LINC	57 Neutral	$519.39M	51.78	5.73%	―	16.40%	-62.64%

American Public Education Corporate Events

American Public Education to Consolidate Institutions

On January 28, 2025, American Public Education, Inc. announced plans to consolidate its institutions—American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing—into a single entity named American Public University System. This combination aims to enhance the company’s healthcare platform, strengthen its military and veteran focus, and improve long-term sustainability. The consolidation is anticipated to close in the third quarter of 2025, subject to regulatory approval, and is expected to simplify operations, boost student outcomes, and fortify financial stability. Additionally, the company confirmed compliance with the Department of Education’s 90/10 Rule for 2024, indicating a balanced revenue stream less reliant on federal financial aid.