Alumis Inc. (ALMS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $255.71M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -3.24
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -82.41%
• Country: US
• Employees: 168
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -5.45
• Shares Outstanding: 47,222,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 517,876
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,136,272
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -0.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $21.50
• Price Target Upside: 357.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

Alumis Inc. presents a challenging investment case primarily due to its poor financial performance, characterized by zero revenue, increasing losses, and negative cash flows. The technical analysis also indicates bearish trends, further weighing on the stock's performance. Valuation metrics are unfavorable with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield. However, the upcoming merger with ACELYRIN, Inc. offers a potential positive shift in the company's prospects, providing financial stability and growth through an enhanced pipeline and financial resources.

Positive Factors

Financial Strength

The cash infusion from the deal extends Alumis Inc.'s operational cash runway through the planned topline data readout of the ongoing Phase 3 ONWARD program of ESK-001 in psoriasis.

Partnership and Collaboration

The collaboration and license agreement with Kaken Pharmaceutical for the development and commercialization of ESK-001 in Japan is a significant boost for Alumis Inc.

Product Differentiation

ESK-001 could also steal market share from biologics.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Lowering price target based on impact of increased projected operating expenses on valuation.

Regulatory and Development Risks

Risks include inability to advance ESK-001 into pivotal trials in a timely fashion, failure of ESK-001 to show compelling efficacy, and delays in completing regulatory submissions in key territories.

Alumis Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alumis Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for autoimmune disorders. It develops ESK-001, an allosteric tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor for the treatment of plaque psoriasis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and non-infectious uveitis; and A-005, a central nervous system-penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor for neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. The company was formerly known as Esker Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Alumis Inc. in January 2022. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Alumis Inc. generates revenue through the development and commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. The company invests in research and development to create novel therapies, which it then seeks to bring to market through clinical trials and regulatory approval processes. Revenue streams are primarily derived from product sales, licensing agreements, and strategic partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships often involve collaborative research and shared development costs, as well as revenue-sharing arrangements from the commercialization of co-developed products. Additionally, Alumis might engage in milestone payments and royalties from licensing its proprietary technologies to third parties, contributing to its overall earnings.

Alumis Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alumis Inc. faces significant financial challenges with zero revenue, increasing losses, and negative cash flows, despite a relatively strong balance sheet with solid equity. The increasing debt levels and cash consumption highlight major concerns within its operations.

Income Statement

Alumis Inc. has consistently reported zero revenue over the last three years, reflecting a lack of commercialized products or services. The company is experiencing increasing net losses, with a significant drop in profitability as indicated by growing negative EBIT and EBITDA. The consistent negative net income highlights ongoing financial challenges within its operations.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a positive stockholders' equity, indicating some financial stability. However, the debt-to-equity ratio has increased over the years, suggesting rising leverage. The equity ratio is relatively strong, reflecting a solid capital structure, but the increase in liabilities could pose potential risks.

Cash Flow

Alumis Inc. shows negative free cash flow over the periods, with increasing operating cash outflows, indicating substantial cash consumption in operations. Despite positive financing cash flow, likely from equity financing, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, signifying that the company is struggling to generate positive cash flow from operations.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement		Total Revenue
0.00	0.00	0.00
	Gross Profit
0.00	-1.28M	-250.00K
	EBIT
-300.75M	-158.17M	-113.85M
	EBITDA
-297.60M	-156.89M	-113.60M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-294.23M	-154.99M	-111.93M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
288.26M	48.95M	93.07M
	Total Assets
340.99M	89.61M	108.17M
	Total Debt
30.72M	32.58M	1.78M
	Net Debt
-138.80M	-13.42M	-24.04M
	Total Liabilities
80.89M	53.50M	17.94M
	Stockholders Equity
260.10M	36.11M	90.23M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-256.81M	-134.47M	-110.13M
	Operating Cash Flow
-255.08M	-129.97M	-107.72M
	Investing Cash Flow
-113.79M	60.47M	-68.75M
	Financing Cash Flow
492.37M	89.68M	101.63M

Alumis Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALMS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.51, below the 50-day MA of 5.43, and below the 200-day MA of 9.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.12 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALMS.

Alumis Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MAZE	59 Neutral	$399.86M	―		―	―	―
Sector *	49 Neutral	$1.93B	-1.63	-22.26%	3.87%	0.68%	-27.45%
CELC	44 Neutral	$395.42M	―	-87.54%	―	―	-4.14%
ALMS	43 Neutral	$255.71M	―	-198.66%	―	―	-82.41%
ORIC	43 Neutral	$345.90M	―	-54.73%	―	―	7.15%
ERAS	32 Underperform	$351.25M	―	-43.68%	―	―	10.38%

Alumis Inc. Corporate Events

Alumis Inc. Announces Merger with ACELYRIN, Inc.

On March 4, 2025, Alumis Inc. and ACELYRIN, Inc. announced their commitment to merge in an all-stock transaction, forming a leading clinical-stage biopharma company focused on immune-mediated diseases. The merger is expected to enhance the combined company’s financial position, support a diverse pipeline, and drive significant value for stockholders. The transaction, anticipated to close in the second quarter of 2025, will provide increased resources for developing life-changing medicines and is projected to maximize value for shareholders and patients through a strengthened late-stage portfolio and financial flexibility.

Alumis Inc. Approves New Severance and Control Plan

On February 18, 2025, Alumis Inc. approved a Severance and Change in Control Plan to provide severance benefits and Change in Control benefits to eligible employees upon qualifying termination of employment. The plan details cash payments, COBRA premium payments, and potential acceleration of equity awards for eligible employees both during and outside Change in Control periods, depending on their designation tier.

Alumis Inc. Announces Merger with ACELYRIN, Inc.

On February 6, 2025, Alumis Inc. announced a merger agreement with ACELYRIN, Inc., creating a combined company dedicated to developing transformative therapies for immune-mediated diseases. The all-stock transaction, subject to stockholder approval, will see Alumis and ACELYRIN stockholders owning approximately 55% and 45% of the combined entity, respectively. The merger is expected to expand Alumis’ late-stage pipeline, including ACELYRIN’s lonigutamab, and provide financial stability with a pro forma cash position of $737 million. The combined company will operate under the Alumis name, led by the current Alumis executive team, and aims to leverage its R&D success and proprietary data platform to advance its differentiated portfolio. The transaction is anticipated to close in the second quarter of 2025, with stockholders representing substantial shares of both companies already in support.