Alaska Air (ALK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.05B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.48M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: 31.50%
• EPS Growth: -49.15%
• Country: US
• Employees: 29,773
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 1.05
• Shares Outstanding: 115,310,450
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,574,943
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,476,162
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 44.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.35
• 1Y Price Target: $70.00
• Price Target Upside: 56.32% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $46.00 ▲(2.72% Upside)

Alaska Air's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance and strategic growth initiatives, but is tempered by bearish technical indicators and valuation concerns. Financial performance shows potential but is hindered by profitability and cash flow challenges.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Record revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial health.

Premium Revenue Growth

Growth in premium revenues suggests successful product differentiation and customer loyalty, enhancing profitability.

International Expansion

Expanding international routes strengthens global presence and revenue diversification, positioning for long-term growth.

Negative Factors

IT Outage Impact

IT disruptions can affect operational reliability and customer trust, potentially impacting future revenue and brand reputation.

Rising Debt Levels

Higher leverage increases financial risk and limits flexibility, potentially affecting long-term stability and investment capacity.

Low Profit Margins

Low profit margins reflect challenges in cost management and profitability, which may hinder long-term financial performance.

Alaska Air Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is a major American airline based in Seattle, Washington. It operates through its subsidiary, Alaska Airlines, and offers passenger and cargo air transportation services primarily across the western United States and to various international destinations. The company is known for its customer service and operational efficiency, providing a range of services including scheduled flights, vacation packages, and loyalty programs through its Mileage Plan.

How the Company Makes Money

Alaska Air generates revenue primarily through passenger ticket sales, which constitute the bulk of its income. The company also earns money from cargo services, ancillary fees (such as baggage fees, seat selection fees, and in-flight purchases), and its loyalty program which drives repeat business and customer retention. Additionally, partnerships with other airlines and travel-related services enhance revenue streams through codeshare agreements and joint marketing initiatives. Seasonal promotions and strategic pricing help optimize revenue during peak travel periods.

Alaska Air Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alaska Air shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability margins post-pandemic. However, increased leverage and negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures pose potential risks. The financial position is stable but requires attention to leverage and capital spending.

Income Statement

Alaska Air demonstrates a strong recovery with a consistent increase in total revenue from $3,566M in 2020 to $13,447M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. The gross profit margin improved significantly, reaching 59.15% in TTM 2025. Net profit margin also recovered to 2.33% in TTM 2025 from negative figures in 2020. However, the EBIT margin decreased slightly from 4.86% in 2024 to 3.67% in TTM 2025, suggesting a need for cost control. Revenue growth rate year-over-year shows a positive trajectory, indicating robust demand recovery in the airline industry.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio increased slightly in TTM 2025, as total debt rose to $6,373M while equity decreased to $3,942M, indicating rising leverage. ROE decreased to 7.94% in TTM 2025 from 9.03% in 2024, reflecting a reduced ability to generate profits from equity. The equity ratio was stable around 19.82% in TTM 2025, which shows a moderate reliance on equity financing. These figures suggest a stable but cautious financial position with moderate risk due to increased leverage.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remained robust at $1,427M in TTM 2025, indicating strong operational performance. However, free cash flow turned negative in TTM 2025 at -$8M, mainly due to capital expenditures, which may limit Alaska Air's financial flexibility. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates a healthy conversion of earnings into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, signaling the need for careful capital management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	14.14B	11.73B	10.43B	9.65B	6.18B	3.57B
Gross Profit	10.32B	2.12B	2.46B	1.66B	1.35B	-414.00M
EBITDA	1.20B	1.27B	1.27B	1.20B	137.00M	-1.33B
Net Income	150.00M	395.00M	235.00M	58.00M	478.00M	-1.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.01B	19.77B	14.61B	14.28B	13.95B	14.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.30B	2.48B	1.80B	2.42B	3.12B	3.35B
Total Debt	6.47B	6.39B	3.82B	3.78B	4.09B	5.05B
Total Liabilities	15.98B	15.40B	10.50B	10.46B	10.15B	11.06B
Stockholders Equity	4.03B	4.37B	4.11B	3.82B	3.80B	2.99B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-54.00M	183.00M	-444.00M	-253.00M	738.00M	-440.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.34B	1.46B	1.05B	1.42B	1.03B	-234.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.19B	-634.00M	-964.00M	-1.22B	-1.01B	-593.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-378.00M	119.00M	-147.00M	-325.00M	-914.00M	1.98B

Alaska Air Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 44.78
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 44.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.07, below the 50-day MA of 54.51, and below the 200-day MA of 55.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.29 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALK.

Alaska Air Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DAL	―	$39.80B	8.59	28.52%	1.12%	4.33%	-1.58%
UAL	―	$32.15B	9.90	25.59%	―	4.24%	20.29%
Sector *	―	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AAL	―	$9.10B	16.12	―	―	1.27%	118.64%
LUV	―	$16.65B	49.07	4.22%	2.23%	0.65%	―
ALK	―	$5.05B	35.97	3.53%	―	31.50%	-49.15%
JBLU	―	$1.66B	―	-15.12%	―	-1.90%	61.06%

Alaska Air Corporate Events

Alaska Air Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

Alaska Air Group reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with a GAAP net income of $73 million and adjusted earnings per share of $1.05. The company announced new nonstop routes from Seattle to London and Reykjavik starting in May 2026, and launched the Atmos Rewards loyalty program, which exceeded premium credit card sign-up expectations. Additionally, Alaska Air is installing Starlink high-speed Wi-Fi across its fleet, offering complimentary access to Atmos Rewards members. The company continues to integrate Hawaiian Airlines and advance its Alaska Accelerate strategy, aiming for significant growth and profitability by 2027.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALK) stock is a Hold with a $49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alaska Air stock, see the ALK Stock Forecast page.

Alaska Air Faces IT Outage, Postpones Conference Call

On October 23, 2025, Alaska Air Group experienced an IT outage that led to a temporary ground stop for Alaska and Horizon operations. Although the ground stop has been lifted, the company is still assessing the operational impacts and has postponed its third quarter conference call originally scheduled for October 24, 2025, due to the disruption.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALK) stock is a Hold with a $49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alaska Air stock, see the ALK Stock Forecast page.

Alaska Air Announces COO Transition Amid Integration

On September 25, 2025, Alaska Air Group announced the retirement of Constance von Muehlen, the COO of Alaska Airlines, effective February 15, 2026. Jason Berry, who has been with Horizon Air and Alaska Air Group in various leadership roles, will succeed her as COO starting November 3, 2025. This leadership transition is part of Alaska Airlines’ ongoing integration with Hawaiian Airlines, aiming to achieve a single operating certificate from the FAA. The changes reflect the company’s commitment to operational excellence and are expected to strengthen its position as a global premium airline. Andy Schneider will take over as CEO and President of Horizon Air, bringing extensive experience within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALK) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alaska Air stock, see the ALK Stock Forecast page.

Alaska Air Faces Earnings Pressure Amid High Fuel Costs

Alaska Air Group’s third quarter adjusted earnings per share are expected to be at the lower end of the previously guided range due to high fuel costs and operational challenges, including weather and air traffic control issues. Despite these challenges, revenue trends remain strong with positive yields and a successful launch of the Atmos Rewards loyalty program, which exceeded expectations and expanded beyond core markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALK) stock is a Buy with a $72.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alaska Air stock, see the ALK Stock Forecast page.

Alaska Air Amends Term Loan Agreement

On August 6, 2025, Alaska Air Group, Inc. amended its Term Loan Credit and Guaranty Agreement, initially dated October 15, 2024, to reprice loans under its Loyalty Term Loan Facility. This amendment, involving AS Mileage Plan IP, Ltd. and Bank of America, N.A., adjusts interest rates to a variable rate tied to Term SOFR with specific margins, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALK) stock is a Buy with a $70.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alaska Air stock, see the ALK Stock Forecast page.