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Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)
NASDAQ:ALGT

Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) AI Stock Analysis

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ALAllegiant Travel Company
(NASDAQ:ALGT)
50Neutral
Allegiant Travel Company faces significant challenges with profitability and a high debt load, weighing heavily on the financial performance score. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, further impacting the score. Despite these challenges, the earnings call highlighted strategic improvements and positive future guidance, providing some optimism. However, valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings, offset partially by a decent dividend yield. The overall score reflects these mixed factors, with a stronger emphasis on current financial and technical challenges.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Allegiant generated ~$562.1mm of consolidated revenue in the third quarter, slightly exceeding the estimate of ~$558.9mm.
Fleet Modernization
The first MAX aircraft offers a 26% improvement in fuel efficiency and is expected to drive significant incremental annualized EBITDA.
Negative Factors
Natural Disasters
Hurricane Helene will negatively impact the airline segment, affecting about 25% of network seats.

Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Allegiant Travel Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAllegiant Travel Company (ALGT) is an integrated travel company that operates a low-cost airline based in the United States. The company focuses on linking travelers in small cities to popular leisure destinations. Allegiant’s core services include scheduled air transportation, ancillary products, and vacation packages, including hotel and rental car services. The company emphasizes providing affordable and convenient travel options, primarily serving underserved cities and regions.
How the Company Makes MoneyAllegiant Travel Company generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is from passenger fares, which are charged for air travel services. Additionally, the company earns significant revenue from ancillary fees, which include charges for baggage, seat selection, priority boarding, and other in-flight services. Allegiant also partners with hotels and car rental agencies to offer vacation packages, earning commissions and fees from these partnerships. By focusing on low-cost operations and targeting leisure travelers from underserved markets, Allegiant maximizes its earnings through a combination of airfare and ancillary revenue streams.

Allegiant Travel Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Allegiant Travel Company is facing operational and profitability challenges, with a negative net income and EBIT despite revenue growth. The balance sheet indicates high leverage with a significant amount of debt, though cash flow management shows improvement with positive cash flow from operations.
Income Statement
40
Negative
The company has faced a challenging year with a negative net income and EBIT, reflecting operational difficulties. Despite a slight increase in total revenue, the significant decline in gross profit margin and negative net profit margin highlight profitability concerns. Historical comparisons show inconsistent performance, particularly in profitability metrics.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals moderate financial stability with a substantial amount of debt. The debt-to-equity ratio is high, indicating potential leverage risks. However, the company maintains a reasonable equity ratio, showing some balance between liabilities and equity. The decline in stockholders' equity is a concern, reflecting potential risk in financial structure.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow from operations remains positive, indicating operational cash generation despite net losses. The transition from negative to positive free cash flow is a positive sign, though it remains modest. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable given the negative net income, but cash management shows improvement.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.51B2.51B2.30B1.71B990.07M
Gross Profit
1.57B664.37M340.47M231.54M-4.34M
EBIT
-239.98M220.98M-54.91M98.06M-146.75M
EBITDA
60.86M490.24M305.57M446.06M-128.37M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-240.24M117.60M2.49M151.85M-184.09M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
781.13M814.67M955.10M1.18B685.30M
Total Assets
4.43B4.87B4.51B3.99B685.30M
Total Debt
2.15B2.36B2.21B1.88B1.78B
Net Debt
1.86B2.22B1.98B1.51B1.62B
Total Liabilities
3.34B3.54B2.10B2.77B-14.10M
Stockholders Equity
1.09B1.33B1.22B1.22B699.40M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
38.30M-447.39M-131.64M232.66M-45.70M
Operating Cash Flow
338.46M423.09M303.05M488.20M234.50M
Investing Cash Flow
5.58M-721.88M-491.42M-593.28M-365.69M
Financing Cash Flow
-201.30M212.92M33.12M285.47M164.60M

Allegiant Travel Company Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price55.71
Price Trends
50DMA
89.27
Negative
100DMA
81.61
Negative
200DMA
64.75
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-8.41
Positive
RSI
19.76
Positive
STOCH
8.36
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALGT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 55.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.15, below the 50-day MA of 89.27, and below the 200-day MA of 64.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 19.76 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.36 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALGT.

Allegiant Travel Company Risk Analysis

Allegiant Travel Company disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Allegiant Travel Company reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Allegiant Travel Company Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
DADAL
74
Outperform
$32.51B9.9926.19%1.03%6.19%-25.26%
74
Outperform
$1.51B18.0015.12%5.18%
LULUV
63
Neutral
$16.70B38.714.50%2.46%5.34%-6.20%
62
Neutral
$8.11B13.341.17%3.02%4.16%-15.14%
AAAAL
58
Neutral
$8.22B11.28-21.27%2.70%2.20%
50
Neutral
$1.02B-19.93%3.95%0.11%-311.73%
47
Neutral
$1.95B-26.60%-3.50%-148.99%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
55.71
-14.47
-20.62%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
50.33
8.11
19.21%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
5.52
-1.52
-21.59%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
28.18
-5.01
-15.09%
AAL
American Airlines
12.50
-2.15
-14.68%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
6.04
-1.32
-17.93%

Allegiant Travel Company Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 4, 2025 | % Change Since: -43.79% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with significant achievements in operational efficiency and financial discipline, balanced against challenges such as revenue declines and impairment charges related to Sunseeker. While operational and financial strategies show promise, the impact of certain headwinds, including foreign exchange and exceptional costs like the pilot bonus, were evident.
Highlights
Improved Operating Margin
Adjusted airline-only operating margin of over 13% for the December quarter, marking a 6.5 point increase from the previous year.
Capacity and Utilization Growth
16% increase in December capacity with aircraft utilization averaging 9.6 hours per day, reflecting a 21% year-over-year increase.
Successful New Initiatives
Substantial progress in commercial technology upgrades and introduction of new MAX aircraft, with 46% of the fleet equipped with Allegiant Extra product, expected to reach 70% by end of year.
Positive Financial Indicators
Fourth quarter airline revenue of nearly $610 million was up slightly year-over-year, with strong performance in the three-week holiday period growing more than 14% year-over-year.
Debt Reduction and Liquidity
Total debt balances were down nearly $200 million during 2024 with $1.1 billion in available liquidity.
Lowlights
Revenue Decline
2024 airline revenue of $2.44 billion, approximately 2.6% below the prior year.
Sunseeker Impairment
Recorded a total non-cash impairment of $322 million for Sunseeker due to downward revision of earnings estimates.
Pilot Retention Bonus Impact
Fourth quarter CASM mix includes roughly $20 million related to a pilot retention bonus.
Foreign Exchange Pressure
Strengthening U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar applied pressure on origination cities near the border.
Company Guidance
In the Allegiant Travel Company Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Earnings Call, the company reported a commendable adjusted airline-only operating margin of over 13% for the December quarter, a 6.5-point increase from the previous year. A significant 16% increase in December capacity was driven by aircraft utilization averaging 9.6 hours per day, marking a 21% year-over-year rise. The company achieved a controllable completion rate of 99.7% during the peak holiday period. Allegiant plans to maintain this momentum into 2025, with expectations of over 15% capacity growth throughout the year. They ended 2024 with $2.44 billion in airline revenue, a slight 2.6% decrease from the prior year, while total ASMs grew 1.1%. Allegiant also highlighted the introduction of four MAX aircraft and anticipates a full-year EPS guidance midpoint of $9, suggesting more than a 50% improvement in earnings compared to 2024. Additionally, the Allegiant Always credit card is expected to generate over $140 million in total remuneration in 2025.

Allegiant Travel Company Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Allegiant Travel Reports Mixed 2024 Financial Results
Neutral
Feb 4, 2025

On February 4, 2025, Allegiant Travel Company reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2024. The company experienced a GAAP diluted loss per share of $12.00 for the fourth quarter and $13.49 for the full year, largely due to a one-time impairment charge related to the Sunseeker Resort. Despite this, the adjusted diluted earnings per share for the airline-only operations were $3.00 for the fourth quarter and $5.84 for the year. The report highlights a mixed financial performance with significant losses impacted by special charges, but showcases resilience in its core airline operations.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.