Federal Agricultural (AGM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.87B
• Dividend Yield: 3.22%
• Average Volume (3M): 43.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 26.19%
• EPS Growth: 3.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 81
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 16.45
• Shares Outstanding: 9,360,484
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 46,939
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 43,483
• PEG Ratio: 2.70
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.56
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 1.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $232.50
• Price Target Upside: 31.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation demonstrates robust revenue growth and strategic initiatives that support strong financial performance. However, challenges such as high leverage and cash flow fluctuations, coupled with bearish technical indicators, temper the overall outlook. Despite these concerns, the stock's attractive valuation and positive earnings call sentiment provide a counterbalance, resulting in a moderately positive stock score.

Federal Agricultural Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through four segments: Farm & Ranch, USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) Guarantees, Rural Utilities, and Institutional Credit. The Farm & Ranch segment purchases and retains eligible mortgage loans that are secured by first liens on agricultural real estate; securitizes eligible mortgage loans, and guarantees the timely payment of principal and interest on securities representing interests in or obligations secured by pools of mortgage loans; and issues long-term standby purchase commitments (LTSPC) on designated eligible mortgage loans. The USDA Guarantees segment purchases portions of certain agricultural and rural development loans guaranteed by the USDA. The Rural Utilities segment purchases and guarantees securities that are backed by loans for electric or telecommunications facilities by lenders organized as cooperatives to borrowers; and purchases eligible rural utilities loans and guarantees of securities backed by those loans, as well as LTSPCs for pools of eligible rural utilities loans. The Institutional Credit segment guarantees and purchases general obligations of lenders and other financial institutions that are secured by pools of loans eligible under the Farmer Mac's Farm & Ranch, USDA Guarantees, or Rural Utilities lines of business. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.

How the Company Makes Money

Farmer Mac makes money primarily through the purchase and securitization of agricultural loans. It earns revenue by charging guarantee and commitment fees for the loans it securitizes or holds in its portfolio. The company also generates income from the interest on loans and mortgage-backed securities it retains. Significant partnerships with agricultural lenders and rural infrastructure providers contribute to its earnings, as these relationships help Farmer Mac maintain a steady flow of loan acquisitions and securitization opportunities. Additionally, it manages a diversified investment portfolio that generates interest income, further contributing to its revenue streams.

Federal Agricultural Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Federal Agricultural demonstrates strong revenue growth with steady profitability margins, although recent trends suggest increasing costs. The company's heavy reliance on debt is a concern, as indicated by its high Debt-to-Equity Ratio, which poses potential risks in terms of financial stability. Cash flow inconsistencies further highlight the need for improved cash management. Overall, while the company shows growth potential, managing leverage and stabilizing cash flows are crucial for sustaining its financial health.

Income Statement

Federal Agricultural has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in Total Revenue from $206.9 million in 2020 to $361.99 million in 2024. The company maintains a strong Gross Profit Margin, consistently at 100%, due to the nature of its revenue structure. However, the Net Profit Margin showed a slight decline from 2023 to 2024, indicating higher costs or other expenses. The EBIT margin has shown strength, although there was a dip in 2024. The lack of EBITDA data for recent years limits the comprehensive assessment of operating performance.

Balance Sheet

Federal Agricultural exhibits a high Debt-to-Equity Ratio, reflecting significant leverage, which is common in the Credit Finance industry. The Stockholders' Equity has grown, which is a positive sign, yet the Equity Ratio remains low, indicating heavy reliance on debt. Return on Equity (ROE) has fluctuated, showing strong performance in some years but dipping in 2024, suggesting potential risks associated with the high debt levels.

Cash Flow

The company's cash flow generation has been inconsistent, with negative Free Cash Flow in certain years. The absence of Operating Cash Flow data for 2024 complicates a full assessment, but previous years show a pattern of fluctuating cash flows. The company needs to stabilize its cash flow to ensure financial flexibility and reduce reliance on external financing.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
361.99M	346.59M	309.11M	238.84M	206.89M
	Gross Profit
361.99M	349.21M	308.29M	238.84M	206.89M
	EBIT
323.75M	249.49M	644.42M	167.61M	137.43M
	EBITDA
0.00	0.00	645.14M	0.00	137.43M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
180.43M	200.00M	178.14M	136.09M	108.65M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
7.00B	5.87B	5.49B	11.07B	11.84B
	Total Assets
31.32B	29.52B	27.33B	25.15B	24.36B
	Total Debt
27.37B	27.69B	25.65B	23.70B	23.17B
	Net Debt
26.35B	26.80B	24.79B	22.79B	22.14B
	Total Liabilities
29.84B	28.11B	26.06B	23.94B	23.36B
	Stockholders Equity
1.49B	1.41B	1.27B	1.20B	992.48M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
607.37M	375.80M	809.27M	436.41M	-94.55M
	Operating Cash Flow
612.65M	375.80M	809.27M	436.41M	-94.55M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.68B	-1.96B	-3.04B	-1.10B	-1.74B
	Financing Cash Flow
1.21B	1.61B	2.19B	534.63M	2.26B

Federal Agricultural Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 176.83
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 176.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 176.64, below the 50-day MA of 188.93, and below the 200-day MA of 191.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AGM.

Federal Agricultural Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FINV	78 Outperform	$1.96B	6.16	16.47%	3.11%	2.51%	7.06%
ENVA	78 Outperform	$2.38B	12.73	17.19%	―	25.51%	36.96%
LX	73 Outperform	$1.24B	8.14	10.77%	1.52%	10.06%	0.04%
AGM	66 Neutral	$1.87B	10.69	14.28%	3.22%	26.19%	3.95%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$12.33B	9.59	8.02%	79.26%	12.87%	-4.61%
LC	54 Neutral	$1.13B	22.54	3.96%	―	3.63%	27.77%
LU	52 Neutral	$2.44B	―	-3.79%	4.76%	-38.81%	-425.73%

Federal Agricultural Corporate Events

Federal Agricultural Appoints Daniel L. Shaw to Board

On March 26, 2025, Daniel L. Shaw was appointed to the Board of Directors of Farmer Mac, filling the vacancy left by the late Roy H. Tiarks. Mr. Shaw, a seasoned agricultural professional with extensive experience in farming and agribusiness, will serve on several key committees, contributing to Farmer Mac’s strategic and risk management efforts.

Farmer Mac Enhances Executive Compensation Strategy

On March 6, 2025, Farmer Mac’s Human Capital and Compensation Committee approved increases in the annual base salaries of several executive officers, effective retroactively to January 1, 2025. Additionally, the committee granted stock appreciation rights and restricted stock units to executive officers and directors under the company’s 2008 Omnibus Incentive Plan. These equity awards are designed to align executive compensation with long-term company performance goals. The committee also approved performance-based cash bonuses for the executive officers based on their achievements in 2024. These compensation changes are part of Farmer Mac’s strategy to incentivize leadership and align executive interests with company performance, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder relations.

Farmer Mac Reports Strong 2024 Financial Results

On February 21, 2025, Farmer Mac announced its financial results for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, highlighting an 8% increase in net interest income to $353.9 million and net income attributable to common stockholders rising to $180.4 million. The Board declared a 7% increase in quarterly dividends for common stock, reflecting strong earnings potential and a solid capital position, with a payout set for March 31, 2025.

Farmer Mac Board Member Roy H. Tiarks Passes Away

On February 7, 2025, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, known as Farmer Mac, reported the passing of Roy H. Tiarks, a board member since May 2021 and chair of the Enterprise Risk Committee. His tenure included roles in the Business Development and Business Strategy Committee and the Credit Committee. The Board is considering filling the vacancy created by his death before the next stockholders’ meeting in May 2025.

Farmer Mac Schedules Conference Call for Financial Results

On February 6, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the upcoming conference call to discuss its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2024. This announcement provides stakeholders an opportunity to gain insights into Farmer Mac’s financial performance and operational strategies impacting its industry positioning.