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Agilon Health (AGL)
NYSE:AGL
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Agilon Health
(NYSE:AGL)
59Neutral
Positive Factors
Earnings
Analyst reiterates overweight as conservative guidance and improving reimbursement backdrop could drive favorable earnings and multiple revisions in the future.
Financial Performance
The company is guiding to $330M of cash at year end, ~$75M better than prior expectation.
Strategic Direction
Analyst reiterates a Buy rating and lifts the price target to $4.00, highlighting confidence in the company's strategic direction.
Negative Factors
Financial Challenges
Despite efforts, the company will not be cash flow positive until 2027, indicating ongoing financial challenges.
Quarterly Performance
AGL reported another weak quarter with adj. EBITDA of ($84m), missing consensus of ($78.7m), underpinned by a continuation of elevated trend.
Revenue Decline
In 2025, the company expects a 2% decline in total revenue as MA enrollment declines and underperforming contracts are left.
Agilon Health (AGL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.67B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-0.62
Revenue Growth33.00%
EPS Growth-18.81%
CountryUS
Employees1,076
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength76
IndustryHealthcare Providers & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.63
Shares Outstanding412,303,070
10 Day Avg. Volume7,080,636
30 Day Avg. Volume6,103,875
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.28
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)25.40
P/FCF Ratio104.50
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.22Price Target Upside-23.33% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering16
Agilon Health Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAgilon Health Inc is transforming healthcare by empowering community-based physicians with the resources and expertise they need to innovate the payment and delivery of care for seniors. The company enables physicians to create their own Medicare-centric globally capitated line of business.
How the Company Makes MoneyAgilon Health makes money primarily through partnerships with primary care physician groups. The company generates revenue by sharing in the cost savings and efficiency improvements achieved through its value-based care model. Agilon provides infrastructure and resources that allow physicians to deliver improved healthcare outcomes, thereby qualifying for shared savings under various healthcare payment models. The company also benefits from Medicare Advantage plans by taking on risk-based contracts, where they are incentivized to manage the health of patient populations effectively. Partnerships with insurers and healthcare providers play a significant role in Agilon's revenue generation strategy.
Agilon Health Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Agilon Health demonstrates impressive revenue growth, yet struggles with profitability, as seen in negative net profit margins and cash flows. The balance sheet is strengthened by a positive equity position and no debt, but the inability to generate profits and positive cash flows remains a concern.Income Statement
Agilon Health has shown significant revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $1218M in 2020 to $6060M in 2024. However, the company continues to face profitability challenges with consistent net losses, resulting in negative net profit margins. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies. Despite the revenue growth, the inability to translate this into profit remains a concern.60
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a reasonably strong equity position with a positive stockholders' equity of $471M in 2024, although it has decreased from previous years. The company has no debt as of 2024, which is a positive aspect, but the overall equity ratio has declined. The return on equity remains negative due to continued net losses, indicating challenges in generating returns for shareholders.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Agilon Health's cash flow situation is concerning, with consistently negative operating cash flow and free cash flow over the years. The free cash flow has deteriorated further in 2024, showing a decline from 2023. Although there are some improvements in investing cash flow, the negative operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates difficulties in managing operational cash efficiently.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 6.06B | 4.32B | 2.71B | 1.83B | 1.22B | Gross Profit |
| 4.84M | 69.67M | 112.29M | 76.41M | 94.15M | EBIT |
| -292.13M | -232.13M | -110.21M | -393.95M | -56.67M | EBITDA |
| -218.19M | -167.64M | -72.41M | -383.78M | -40.11M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -260.10M | -262.60M | -106.86M | -405.48M | -63.21M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 399.97M | 488.34M | 908.97M | 1.04B | 106.80M | Total Assets |
| 1.73B | 1.74B | 1.70B | 1.59B | 446.36M | Total Debt |
| 41.50M | 52.31M | 43.48M | 48.40M | 73.21M | Net Debt |
| -146.73M | -55.26M | -453.59M | -991.64M | -33.58M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.26B | 1.08B | 656.86M | 494.66M | 731.09M | Stockholders Equity |
| 470.95M | 661.84M | 1.04B | 1.09B | -284.73M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -71.03M | -187.01M | -163.47M | -161.59M | -55.55M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -57.78M | -156.20M | -130.81M | -148.16M | -53.20M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 139.89M | -44.02M | -444.39M | -90.51M | 22.07M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -2.58M | -193.13M | 28.06M | 1.15B | 24.62M |
Agilon Health Technical Analysis
Positive
4.20
Price Trends
3.29
Positive
2.73
Positive
3.97
Positive
Market Momentum
0.21
Negative
70.97
Negative
92.18
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.58, above the 50-day MA of 3.29, and above the 200-day MA of 3.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.97 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGL.
Agilon Health Risk Analysis
Agilon Health disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agilon Health reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agilon Health Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $28.86B | 9.48 | 12.65% | ― | 5.89% | 27.09% | |
69 Neutral | $3.31B | ― | 2.80% | ― | 56.54% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $30.52B | 25.32 | 7.40% | 1.40% | 10.70% | -49.85% | |
65 Neutral | $446.97B | 31.51 | 15.88% | 1.67% | 8.35% | -35.14% | |
59 Neutral | $1.67B | ― | -44.20% | ― | 33.00% | -18.81% | |
49 Neutral | $6.86B | 0.01 | -55.93% | 2.48% | 24.36% | -2.88% | |
46 Neutral | $1.87B | ― | -14.75% | ― | -32.45% | 80.24% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AGL
Agilon Health
4.20
-1.26
-23.08%
CNC
Centene
59.24
-19.46
-24.73%
HUM
Humana
264.41
-83.25
-23.95%
UNH
UnitedHealth
499.02
13.47
2.77%
CLOV
Clover Health Investments
3.70
2.88
351.22%
OSCR
Oscar Health
13.45
-0.35
-2.54%
Agilon Health Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 25, 2025 | % Change Since: 15.70% | Next Earnings Date: May 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with strong membership and revenue growth in 2024, but challenges remain with adjusted EBITDA losses, projected membership decline in 2025, and elevated medical cost trends. The reduction in Part D exposure and quality performance improvements are positive, but significant challenges in cost management persist.Highlights
Significant MA Membership Growth
MA membership increased 36% year-over-year to 527,000 members, driven by expansion of the '24 partner class and 4.1% same geography growth.
Substantial Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew 44% in the quarter to $1.52 billion and 40% for the year to $6.06 billion, primarily driven by the class of '24 markets and organic growth.
Reduction in Part D Risk Exposure
Reduced Medicare Part-D exposure to less than 30% of membership for 2025, ahead of the previous goal of 50%.
Quality Performance Improvements
Readmission, hospital admission, and ER visit rates are 20% to 30% better than the local fee-for-service benchmark, with quality scores approaching or greater than 4.25 stars.
Lowlights
Adjusted EBITDA Loss
Adjusted EBITDA was minus $84 million for the quarter and minus $154 million for the year, coming in at the low end of guidance.
Projected Membership Decline in 2025
Anticipate a full-year MA membership decline of approximately 4% or 22,000 members due to exits and contract terminations.
Continued Elevated Medical Cost Trends
The full-year 2024 medical cost trend was 6.8%, with expectations for a gross trend of 6.3% in 2025.
Challenges in Managing Part D Costs
Despite reducing exposure, the remaining Part D risk is expected to result in doubled PMPM losses due to the Inflation Reduction Act.
Company Guidance
During the agilon health Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance for 2025, highlighting several key metrics. For 2025, agilon expects a Medicare Advantage (MA) membership decline of approximately 4%, translating to a range of 490,000 to 520,000 members. Revenue is anticipated to decrease by 2% to $5.925 billion, primarily due to the membership decline, although this is offset by improved payor contracts and member mix changes. Medical margin is forecasted to grow by 46% to $300 million at the midpoint, despite ongoing elevated cost trends. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be negative $75 million at the midpoint, reflecting a gross medical cost trend of 6.3%. The company also mentioned strategic actions such as reducing Part D exposure to less than 30% of membership, which is expected to help mitigate cost trend headwinds. Additionally, agilon aims to achieve cash flow breakeven by 2027.Agilon Health Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Agilon Health Reports Strong Q4 Revenue Growth
Positive
Feb 25, 2025
Agilon Health reported a significant increase in revenue and membership for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, with revenue rising 44% in the fourth quarter to $1.52 billion and Medicare Advantage membership growing 36% to 527,000. Despite these gains, the company faced challenges with elevated medical costs and net losses, although these were reduced compared to the previous year. Strategic actions have been taken to improve platform capabilities and reduce underwriting risks, positioning the company for future growth and improved financial performance.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.