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Astrana Health (ASTH)
NASDAQ:ASTH
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Astrana Health
(NASDAQ:ASTH)
77Outperform
Positive Factors
Acquisitions
Adding Prospect Health deepens Astrana Health's competitive edge in Southern California as a scaled entry point to a competitive Orange County.
Strategic Investments
Unanticipated costs related to novel AI investments are expected to enhance margins over time.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
The elevated MLR pressure and disappointing outlook lowers confidence moderately.
Astrana Health (ASTH) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.39B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)339.97K
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.2
Beta (1Y)1.30
Revenue Growth29.71%
EPS Growth33.99%
CountryUS
Employees1,800
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength78
IndustryHealthcare Providers & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.89
Shares Outstanding49,120,033
10 Day Avg. Volume474,401
30 Day Avg. Volume339,972
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.80
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.92
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)11.70
P/FCF Ratio12.50
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$49.14Price Target Upside68.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
Astrana Health Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAstrana Health (ASTH) is a leading healthcare technology company specializing in innovative digital health solutions. It focuses on developing and providing an integrated suite of software and hardware products designed to enhance patient care and optimize healthcare operations. The company operates within the healthcare technology and digital health sectors, offering solutions like electronic health records (EHR) systems, telemedicine platforms, and health data analytics tools.
How the Company Makes MoneyAstrana Health generates revenue primarily through the sale of its digital health solutions and services. Key revenue streams include subscription fees for its software-as-a-service (SaaS) platforms, which provide healthcare providers with access to its EHR systems and telemedicine services. The company also earns money from licensing its health data analytics tools to hospitals and clinics, enabling them to improve operational efficiency and patient outcomes. Additionally, Astrana Health engages in strategic partnerships with healthcare institutions and technology firms to enhance its product offerings and increase market reach, further contributing to its earnings.
Astrana Health Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Astrana Health displays strong financial health with impressive revenue growth and effective cost management, as seen in its income statement. The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a balanced capital structure, though rising liabilities must be monitored. Cash flow statements reveal robust cash generation, supporting the company's growth trajectory. Overall, Astrana Health is well-positioned in the Healthcare Providers & Services industry, with room for further operational enhancements.Income Statement
Astrana Health has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 23% compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin is healthy at approximately 14.4%, showing effective cost management. Net profit margin is stable at 3.6%, while EBITDA margin is robust at 8.1%, indicating solid operational efficiency. However, the EBIT margin is slightly lower, suggesting room for operational improvements.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.68, reflecting a balanced capital structure. The return on equity (ROE) is satisfactory at 8.9%, indicating decent returns for shareholders. Astrana Health has a strong equity ratio of 54.8%, demonstrating financial stability and less reliance on debt. However, total liabilities have increased, which could pose a potential risk if not managed properly.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Astrana Health shows a positive trend in free cash flow, with a growth rate of 76% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.32, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.12, suggesting good cash flow management. Continued focus on sustaining operating cash flow is crucial to support growth initiatives.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 1.72B | 1.39B | 1.14B | 773.91M | 370.25M | 560.62M | Gross Profit |
| 247.35M | 214.96M | 199.48M | 177.77M | 21.70M | 74.53M | EBIT |
| 84.76M | 84.61M | 104.27M | 98.18M | 6.09M | 34.41M | EBITDA |
| 138.79M | 123.69M | 112.08M | 100.66M | 206.28M | 48.85M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 62.46M | 60.72M | 45.17M | 68.92M | -23.75M | 14.12M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 296.31M | 296.31M | 293.59M | 286.51M | 261.17M | 219.80M | Total Assets |
| 933.36M | 933.36M | 966.21M | 867.36M | 817.49M | 728.71M | Total Debt |
| 321.01M | 321.01M | 229.36M | 200.98M | 260.56M | 256.55M | Net Debt |
| 27.21M | 27.21M | -58.66M | -32.11M | 67.08M | 153.29M | Total Liabilities |
| 522.59M | 522.59M | 407.67M | 356.72M | 372.34M | 367.65M | Stockholders Equity |
| 614.22M | 614.22M | 542.56M | 448.17M | 330.82M | 191.55M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 69.89M | 39.70M | 59.19M | 51.11M | 45.00M | 12.87M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 82.45M | 68.23M | 82.13M | 70.33M | 46.16M | 13.91M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -170.37M | -65.52M | -7.11M | 16.54M | 95.49M | -180.84M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 162.28M | 3.42M | -20.09M | -47.75M | -51.70M | 163.30M |
Astrana Health Technical Analysis
Negative
29.20
Price Trends
33.89
Negative
39.92
Negative
43.96
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.21
Positive
41.01
Neutral
54.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.82, below the 50-day MA of 33.89, and below the 200-day MA of 43.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASTH.
Astrana Health Risk Analysis
Astrana Health disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Astrana Health reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Astrana Health Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $1.39B | 33.17 | 6.50% | ― | 29.71% | 33.99% | |
77 Outperform | $18.03B | 15.42 | 27.07% | ― | 19.24% | 8.57% | |
76 Outperform | $81.93B | 17.77 | 6.07% | 4.10% | 4.02% | -43.51% | |
73 Outperform | $86.99B | 26.22 | 7.87% | 1.80% | 25.21% | -29.37% | |
67 Neutral | $30.20B | 25.06 | 7.40% | 1.41% | 10.70% | -49.85% | |
65 Neutral | $444.59B | 31.35 | 15.88% | 1.70% | 8.35% | -35.14% | |
49 Neutral | $6.84B | 0.05 | -53.14% | 2.48% | 24.49% | -3.26% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ASTH
Astrana Health
29.20
-10.89
-27.16%
CI
Cigna
311.99
-31.62
-9.20%
CVS
CVS Health
65.75
-7.34
-10.04%
HUM
Humana
251.73
-93.26
-27.03%
MOH
Molina Healthcare
311.07
-95.61
-23.51%
UNH
UnitedHealth
481.52
0.22
0.05%
Astrana Health Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 27, 2025 | % Change Since: -15.80% | Next Earnings Date: May 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Astrana Health showed strong revenue growth and strategic expansion through acquisitions, but faced challenges due to strategic investment costs, Medicaid utilization headwinds, and high integration costs relating to acquisitions.Highlights
Record Revenue Growth
Astrana Health reported total revenue of $665.2 million in Q4, an 88.4% increase year-over-year, and $2.03 billion for the full year 2024, marking a 47% increase from the prior year.
Significant Membership Growth
The company achieved 55% membership growth in its Care Partners segment in 2024, driven by conversions, acquisitions, and organic efforts.
Strategic Acquisitions
Astrana announced the acquisitions of Collaborative Health Systems (CHS) and Prospect Health, which are expected to significantly expand its provider network and enhance care quality.
Operational Excellence and AI Investments
Astrana made significant investments in automation and AI enhancements, anticipating $10 million in operational efficiencies by early 2026.
Positive Medicare Advantage Rate Outlook
Expectations for Medicare Advantage rates were more favorable than the industry average, aligning with early indications from the 2026 Advanced Rate Notice.
Lowlights
Earnings Drag from Strategic Investments
Significant strategic investments and integration capabilities caused an approximately $13 million drag to earnings in 2024.
Medicaid Utilization Headwinds
2024 experienced a 5.3% utilization trend, influenced by high single-digit trends in Medicaid, impacting margins.
Prospect Health System Bankruptcy
The non-physician assets of Prospect Health System filed for bankruptcy, though it is expected not to impact the acquisition's close timing.
High Integration Costs
Astrana expects $5 million to $10 million in integration costs related to the Prospect acquisition, impacting 2025 earnings.
Company Guidance
In the Astrana Health earnings call for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, the company reported significant growth and provided guidance for 2025. Total revenue for 2024 was $2.03 billion, a 47% increase from the previous year, and adjusted EBITDA reached $170.4 million, up 16.2% year-over-year. The fourth quarter alone saw $665.2 million in revenue, marking an 88.4% increase over the same period last year, with adjusted EBITDA of $35 million, reflecting a 20.8% growth. Astrana Health's Care Partners segment was a major contributor, growing 52% year-over-year to $1.95 billion. For 2025, the company expects revenues between $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion, and adjusted EBITDA ranging from $170 million to $190 million. The company continues to focus on sustainable membership growth, achieving a 55% increase in its care partner segment. Additionally, Astrana Health is progressing with full-risk arrangements, anticipating that 75% to 85% of revenue will come from these contracts by the end of 2025. The company also highlighted strategic investments in integration and AI, aiming for $10 million in operational efficiencies by early 2026.Astrana Health Corporate Events
M&A TransactionsLegal Proceedings
Astrana Health Updates Corporate Presentation Amid Acquisition
Neutral
Jan 14, 2025
Astrana Health, Inc. announced an update to its corporate presentation on January 14, 2025, which it plans to use at upcoming conferences and meetings. The company disclosed that on January 11, 2025, Prospect Medical Holdings, Inc. filed for bankruptcy, but the businesses and assets Astrana is acquiring are not affected by this filing, and the acquisition timeline remains unchanged.
Financial Disclosures
Astrana Health to Share Financial Insights at Conferences
Positive
Nov 14, 2024
Astrana Health, Inc. is set to showcase its financial insights at upcoming conferences, providing exciting opportunities for investors to delve into the company’s financial dynamics. The data shared is for informational purposes and not part of any formal financial filing, offering a transparent view without legal obligations.
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Astrana Health Grants Equity Awards to Key Executives
Positive
Nov 12, 2024
Astrana Health, Inc. has granted special equity awards to key leadership members under its 2024 Equity Incentive Plan, aiming to retain talent and boost stockholder returns amid a competitive market. Executive Chairman Kenneth Sim, Vice Chairman Thomas Lam, CEO Brandon Sim, COO/CFO Chandan Basho, and Chief Medical Officer Dinesh Kumar are among those receiving performance and time-based restricted stock and units, ensuring alignment with company goals and rewarding performance.
Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Astrana Health Acquires Prospect Health for $745 Million
Positive
Nov 8, 2024
Astrana Health, Inc. announced a significant acquisition of Prospect Health System’s businesses and assets for $745 million, aiming to enhance its healthcare delivery network across California, Texas, Arizona, and Rhode Island. The deal, expected to close in 2025, will expand Astrana’s provider network and improve access, quality, and value for its members. The acquisition is backed by a $1,095 million bridge loan commitment from Truist Bank and J.P. Morgan, underscoring Astrana’s strategic growth in the healthcare market.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.