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Air France KLM SA (AFLYY)
:AFLYY

Air France KLM (AFLYY) AI Stock Analysis

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Air France KLM

(OTC:AFLYY)

63Neutral
Air France KLM shows a positive recovery trajectory with strong revenue growth and cash flow generation, particularly highlighted by recent earnings. However, financial vulnerabilities such as high leverage and profitability pressures, along with operational challenges, temper the overall outlook. Technical indicators are positive, yet the valuation remains moderate, suggesting a balanced risk-reward scenario.

Air France KLM (AFLYY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Air France KLM Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAir France KLM (AFLYY) is a leading European airline group that operates through its two main brands, Air France and KLM Royal Dutch Airlines. The company offers a wide range of passenger and cargo air transportation services across a global network. With a strong presence in Europe, North America, Asia, and Africa, Air France KLM provides long-haul and short-haul passenger flights, cargo transport, and maintenance and engineering services. The company is also a key player in the airline alliance SkyTeam, enhancing its global connectivity and reach.
How the Company Makes MoneyAir France KLM generates revenue primarily from passenger ticket sales, which account for the largest portion of its income. The company also earns significant revenue from cargo transport services, leveraging its extensive network to facilitate freight movement. Additional revenue streams include maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services provided to other airlines, as well as ancillary services such as baggage fees, seat selection, and in-flight purchases. The group's strategic partnerships and membership in the SkyTeam alliance contribute to its earnings by expanding its route network and customer base. Moreover, Air France KLM benefits from joint ventures and code-sharing agreements, which enhance operational efficiency and increase flight capacity and occupancy rates.

Air France KLM Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Air France KLM is gradually recovering from the pandemic's impact, with signs of revenue growth and strong operating cash flows. However, profitability remains weak, and the balance sheet shows high leverage and negative equity, indicating financial vulnerability. The company needs to focus on improving margins and strengthening its balance sheet to ensure long-term financial health.
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Air France KLM's revenue has shown recovery from the pandemic impact, with a notable growth rate of 4.8% from 2023 to 2024. However, profitability margins remain under pressure. The gross profit margin for 2024 is 15.8%, and the net profit margin is 1.0%, indicating tight profitability. Despite the recovery in revenue, the net income has significantly decreased compared to 2023, showing potential profitability challenges.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet of Air France KLM reflects significant leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity of -€1.76 billion in 2024, leading to a concerning equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, indicating financial instability. The company's high liabilities relative to assets and negative equity present a risk to financial stability.
Cash Flow
62
Positive
Operating cash flows remain strong, with an increase to €3.50 billion in 2024. However, the free cash flow remains negative at -€232 million due to high capital expenditures, indicating potential liquidity constraints. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, suggesting effective conversion of net income into cash.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
31.46B30.02B26.39B14.31B11.09B
Gross Profit
4.99B6.17B7.97B3.10B1.00M
EBIT
1.60B1.68B816.00M-1.64B-4.64B
EBITDA
3.87B4.67B3.72B-379.00M-3.64B
Net Income Common Stockholders
317.00M934.00M728.00M-3.27B-7.03B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
6.02B7.38B7.23B6.80B6.71B
Total Assets
36.16B34.49B32.30B30.68B30.21B
Total Debt
5.70B13.53B14.71B16.24B18.75B
Net Debt
867.00M7.39B8.08B9.58B12.33B
Total Liabilities
35.36B33.99B34.78B34.50B35.63B
Stockholders Equity
-1.76B-2.05B-3.00B-3.82B-5.43B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-232.00M-426.00M1.88B-668.00M-4.92B
Operating Cash Flow
3.50B3.13B4.86B1.53B-2.83B
Investing Cash Flow
-2.77B-3.24B-2.15B-1.24B-1.58B
Financing Cash Flow
-2.11B-989.00M-2.76B-77.00M7.15B

Air France KLM Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price1.02
Price Trends
50DMA
0.93
Positive
100DMA
0.88
Positive
200DMA
0.90
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Positive
RSI
52.18
Neutral
STOCH
23.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFLYY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.07, above the 50-day MA of 0.93, and above the 200-day MA of 0.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AFLYY.

Air France KLM Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
UAUAL
72
Outperform
$24.51B8.5128.63%6.23%20.08%
DADAL
70
Outperform
$31.57B9.1626.19%1.13%6.19%-25.26%
ALALK
69
Neutral
$6.60B17.639.31%12.56%69.33%
LULUV
67
Neutral
$20.64B46.184.50%2.08%5.34%-6.20%
63
Neutral
$2.76B8.96-7.21%4.84%-66.30%
62
Neutral
$8.36B14.282.39%3.06%3.99%-14.45%
AAAAL
56
Neutral
$7.49B10.67-21.27%2.70%2.20%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AFLYY
Air France KLM
1.04
-0.06
-5.45%
ALK
Alaska Air
53.81
11.80
28.09%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
48.67
1.87
4.00%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
34.67
6.08
21.27%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
77.87
30.63
64.84%
AAL
American Airlines
11.44
-3.86
-25.23%

Air France KLM Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 6, 2025 | % Change Since: 4.08% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted a record-breaking fourth quarter performance with strong revenue growth, fleet modernization, and success in the premium segment. However, challenges remain with operational issues at KLM, increased taxation and tariffs, and supply chain disruptions. Despite these headwinds, the group remains optimistic about its strategic initiatives and financial targets.
Highlights
Record Fourth Quarter Performance
The group reported its strongest fourth quarter on record with a revenue increase of 6% and a 5.8% operating margin. Operating results improved by €450 million, supported by lower fuel prices and strong unit revenue growth.
Fleet Modernization Progress
New generation aircraft now make up 27% of the fleet, a 7-point increase from the previous year, indicating significant progress in fleet renewal and sustainability commitments.
Premium Segment Success
Premium revenue grew by 12% year-over-year, with premium cabins now contributing 26.9% of total group revenue. The premium and premium comfort cabins saw a 29% revenue increase.
Strong Ancillary Revenue Growth
Ancillary revenue increased by 20% in 2024, with seat selection revenue showing strong double-digit growth, driven by personalized options and dynamic pricing models.
Positive Free Cash Flow
The group generated €300 million in adjusted recurring free cash flow, in line with its 2023 Capital Market Day ambitions.
Lowlights
Operational Challenges in KLM
KLM faced additional maintenance costs and operational challenges, necessitating a reduction of 250 non-operational roles to reach productivity targets.
Impact of French Aviation Tax and Schiphol Tariff Increases
The French aviation tax and Schiphol tariff increases present headwinds for 2025, with an estimated impact of €90 million to €170 million and €65 million to €110 million, respectively.
Supply Chain Disruptions
The group faced ongoing supply chain disruptions affecting maintenance, though internal repair solutions helped mitigate these challenges.
Company Guidance
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Air France-KLM reported significant financial improvements, with group revenue increasing by 6% from the previous year and capacity rising by 2%. The unit revenue growth accelerated to 4.4% in Q4, compared to 1.4% in Q3. The group achieved an operating result of €0.4 billion, marking their strongest fourth quarter on record, driven by solid unit revenue growth, lower fuel prices, and an operating margin of 5.1% for the year. The company generated €300 million in adjusted recurring free cash flow, aligning with their 2023 Capital Market Day goals. The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio stood at 1.7x, within their target range of 1.5x to 2.0x. The fleet modernization strategy advanced, with new generation aircraft comprising 27% of the fleet, a 7-point increase from the end of 2023. The group also saw a 12% growth in premium revenue, with premium cabins contributing 26.9% of total group revenue, and corporate travel revenue increasing by 4% compared to 2023.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.