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Full Truck Alliance (YMM)
NYSE:YMM
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Full Truck Alliance
(NYSE:YMM)
79Outperform
Positive Factors
Commission Revenue Growth
Commission revenue growth might be slightly above previous expectations in 4Q24E thanks to take rate improvement and a decent order volume growth.
Market Position
FTA benefits from high entry barriers and a strong network that boosts its revenue and margins.
Negative Factors
Regulatory Concerns
Uncertainty over VAT refund policy is a concern to some investors, but any policy change is not expected to cause material earnings volatility given limited segmental earnings contribution.
Full Truck Alliance (YMM) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.77B
Dividend Yield0.96%
Average Volume (3M)9.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.3
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth29.18%
EPS Growth69.11%
CountryUS
Employees7,585
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength45
IndustrySoftware
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.41
Shares Outstanding939,157,000
10 Day Avg. Volume10,817,567
30 Day Avg. Volume9,171,667
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.83
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)12.02
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.69Price Target Upside28.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
Full Truck Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFull Truck Alliance (YMM) is a leading digital freight platform headquartered in China. It operates in the transportation and logistics sector, providing services that connect shippers with truckers to facilitate efficient freight matching. The company aims to optimize the logistics industry by leveraging technology to enhance the efficiency and transparency of freight transportation services.
How the Company Makes MoneyFull Truck Alliance makes money primarily through its digital platform, which charges service fees for facilitating transactions between shippers and truckers. Revenue is generated from commission fees on each successful match made on the platform. Additionally, the company offers value-added services such as financial services, insurance, and energy products to its users, contributing to its earnings. Strategic partnerships with logistics companies and financial institutions further enhance its revenue streams by broadening the range of services offered to clients.
Full Truck Alliance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Full Truck Alliance exhibits robust financial health with strong revenue growth, increased profitability, and improved operational performance. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, and cash flow generation has improved significantly, enhancing financial flexibility. The company is on a positive growth trajectory, though maintaining sustainable growth and managing operational risks will be key going forward.Income Statement
The company shows strong revenue growth, with a substantial increase from 2022 to 2023. Gross profit margin is high, indicating efficient production and sales processes. Net profit margin has improved significantly, signaling enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have turned positive, reflecting improved operational performance.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a very low debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting minimal leverage and financial risk. Return on equity has improved considerably, indicating better profitability relative to shareholder equity. A high equity ratio reflects financial stability and a strong asset base.80
Positive
Cash Flow
Free cash flow has shifted from negative to positive, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, reflecting healthy cash conversion. The improvement in free cash flow to net income ratio further highlights enhanced financial flexibility.78
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 9.70B | 8.44B | 6.73B | 4.66B | 2.58B | 2.47B | Gross Profit |
| 5.07B | 7.20B | 3.22B | 2.12B | 1.26B | 1.08B | EBIT |
| 1.38B | 997.43M | -113.93M | -3.80B | -3.61B | -1.02B | EBITDA |
| 1.48B | 2.41B | -74.14M | -3.73B | -3.38B | -1.45B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 2.60B | 2.21B | 406.76M | -3.65B | -3.47B | -1.54B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 18.29B | 18.29B | 26.22B | 25.92B | 18.79B | 10.30B | Total Assets |
| 39.35B | 39.35B | 36.70B | 34.40B | 25.13B | 16.96B | Total Debt |
| 84.47M | 84.47M | 80.52M | 9.00M | 0.00 | 500.00M | Net Debt |
| -6.69B | -6.69B | -5.06B | -4.28B | -10.06B | -3.48B | Total Liabilities |
| 3.45B | 3.45B | 2.89B | 2.87B | 2.08B | 2.40B | Stockholders Equity |
| 35.60B | 35.60B | 33.66B | 31.46B | 23.05B | 14.55B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 26.25M | 2.17B | -101.21M | -254.64M | 521.68M | -934.38M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 26.25M | 2.27B | -15.52M | -211.42M | 574.74M | -923.97M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 0.00 | 553.74M | 2.13B | -14.40B | -2.69B | -3.39B | Financing Cash Flow |
| 0.00 | -1.17B | -1.33B | 8.90B | 8.32B | 1.69B |
Full Truck Alliance Technical Analysis
Positive
12.19
Price Trends
11.63
Positive
10.65
Positive
9.40
Positive
Market Momentum
0.26
Negative
51.16
Neutral
71.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YMM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.34, above the 50-day MA of 11.63, and above the 200-day MA of 9.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for YMM.
Full Truck Alliance Risk Analysis
Full Truck Alliance disclosed 96 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Full Truck Alliance reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Full Truck Alliance Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $13.77B | 32.26 | 8.38% | 0.96% | 29.18% | 69.11% | |
78 Outperform | $152.62B | 15.94 | 60.08% | ― | 17.96% | 410.17% | |
73 Outperform | $2.06T | 35.23 | 24.29% | ― | 10.99% | 91.61% | |
72 Outperform | $74.72B | 671.17 | 1.68% | ― | 24.17% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $16.30B | ― | -1.62% | ― | 18.52% | 76.16% | |
61 Neutral | $4.80B | 224.22 | 3.48% | ― | 31.39% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $21.35B | 10.05 | -19.26% | 2.35% | 5.02% | -22.63% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
YMM
Full Truck Alliance
12.58
5.74
83.92%
AMZN
Amazon
196.59
21.20
12.09%
LYFT
Lyft
11.43
-6.27
-35.42%
UBER
Uber Technologies
70.65
-7.67
-9.79%
DASH
DoorDash
183.73
53.28
40.84%
GRAB
Grab
4.31
1.09
33.85%
Full Truck Alliance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 5, 2025 | % Change Since: 4.46% | Next Earnings Date: May 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong financial performance with record-breaking revenues and significant growth in key operational metrics. Despite a one-time impairment loss and strategic adjustments in the freight brokerage service, the company's robust growth in user base, monetization, and operational efficiency resulted in an overall positive outlook.Highlights
Record-Breaking Financial Performance
Total net revenues grew by 32% year-over-year, reaching RMB3.17 billion. Non-GAAP adjusted operating income surged 142% year-over-year to RMB963.3 million, and non-GAAP adjusted net income grew by 44% year-over-year to RMB1.05 billion.
Significant Increase in Fulfilled Orders
Total fulfilled orders in the fourth quarter increased by 24% year-over-year, significantly outpacing the overall industry's growth.
User and Shipper Growth
Average monthly active shippers surpassed 2.93 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of more than 30%. Direct shippers accounted for 50% of total fulfilled orders.
Strong Monetization and Revenue Growth
Transaction service revenues surged over 70% year-over-year to RMB1.16 billion, contributing 36% of total net revenue.
Operational and Efficiency Improvements
Fulfillment rate improved to 37.5%, up 5.4 percentage points year-over-year. Trucker retention rate exceeded 85%.
Lowlights
Impairment Loss
A one-time impairment loss of RMB350 million was recorded due to an investment in an e-commerce platform facing ongoing operating losses.
Freight Brokerage Service Challenges
Revenue from freight brokerage services increased by 17% year-over-year but faced strategic adjustments due to anticipated reductions in regional tax rebates.
Company Guidance
During the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, Full Truck Alliance achieved significant growth and operational milestones. The company reported a 24% year-over-year increase in total fulfilled orders, exceeding the industry's overall growth and concluding the year on a strong note. Average monthly active shippers rose by over 30% year-over-year to 2.93 million, with direct shippers accounting for 50% of total fulfilled orders. The number of active truckers grew to 4.4 million, with a retention rate exceeding 85%. The fulfillment rate improved to 37.5%, up 5.4 percentage points year-over-year. Financially, total net revenues grew by 32% year-over-year to RMB3.17 billion. Transaction service revenues surged over 70% to RMB1.16 billion, contributing 36% of total revenue. Non-GAAP adjusted operating income increased by 142% to RMB963.3 million, and non-GAAP adjusted net income rose by 44% to RMB1.05 billion. The company also initiated a semiannual dividend policy, expecting a total cash dividend of $200 million for 2025.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.