Full Truck Alliance (YMM) AI Stock Analysis

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Full Truck Alliance

(NYSE:YMM)

77Outperform

Full Truck Alliance exhibits strong financial performance with notable revenue and profit growth, supported by a solid balance sheet. Technical indicators show positive momentum, though caution is advised due to potential overbought signals. Valuation remains high, which could limit upside potential. Positive earnings call sentiment reinforces the company's growth trajectory.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

FTA delivered a solid 3Q24 results with decent beat on revs and earnings, as well as in-line order volume.

Market Position

FTA benefits from high entry barriers and a strong network that boosts its revenue and margins.

Pricing Strategy

FTA's take rate can keep heading higher as it attracts shippers by offering 10-15% cheaper pricing versus offline, boosting order growth for truckers.

Negative Factors

Macro Economic Conditions

Despite macro headwinds, the analyst reiterates Buy on robust fundamentals with decent earnings visibility.

Volume Growth Control

FTA is gaining market share on brokerage business while trying to raise take rate to control the volume growth, resulting in brokerage growth also better than expected.

Full Truck Alliance (YMM) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$10.31B

Dividend Yield1.28%

Average Volume (3M)11.50M

Price to Earnings (P/E)24.2

Beta (1Y)0.62

Revenue Growth31.46%

EPS Growth38.73%

CountryUS

Employees7,585

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength51

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.41

Shares Outstanding939,157,000

10 Day Avg. Volume16,779,641

30 Day Avg. Volume11,502,362

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.62

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)11.91

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$14.54

Price Target Upside47.46% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering7

Full Truck Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFull Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China. The company offers freight listing, matching, and brokerage services; and online transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, electronic toll collection, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. The company was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.

How the Company Makes MoneyFull Truck Alliance makes money primarily through service fees charged for transactions facilitated on its platform. The company's revenue model includes commissions from matching services, membership fees, and value-added services offered to both shippers and truckers. These value-added services may include insurance, financial services, and other logistics-related solutions. Partnerships with logistics companies and financial institutions also contribute to its revenue streams, enhancing the overall value proposition of its platform.

Full Truck Alliance Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Full Truck Alliance demonstrates strong financial performance with significant revenue growth, robust profitability margins, and financial stability. The balance sheet is solid with minimal debt, but the absence of recent cash flow data limits a comprehensive assessment.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Full Truck Alliance has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024. The Gross Profit Margin is impressive at 86.6%, and the company has improved its Net Profit Margin to 27.3% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, indicating improved operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The company maintains a robust equity position with an Equity Ratio of 91.2%, suggesting financial stability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is low at 0.002, indicating minimal reliance on debt. Return on Equity is strong at 8.1%, reflecting efficient use of shareholder funds to generate profits.

Cash Flow

Neutral

While the Free Cash Flow was positive in previous years, the lack of available cash flow data for 2024 prevents a full assessment. Historically, the company has shown a good Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio, but recent data is absent.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
11.24B	8.44B	6.73B	4.66B	2.58B
	Gross Profit
9.73B	7.20B	3.22B	2.12B	1.26B
	EBIT
2.47B	997.43M	-113.93M	-3.80B	-3.61B
	EBITDA
2.55B	2.41B	-74.14M	-3.73B	-3.38B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
3.07B	2.21B	406.76M	-3.65B	-3.47B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
20.81B	18.29B	26.22B	25.92B	18.79B
	Total Assets
41.29B	39.35B	36.70B	34.40B	25.13B
	Total Debt
65.13M	84.47M	80.52M	9.00M	0.00
	Net Debt
-5.75B	-6.69B	-5.06B	-4.28B	-10.06B
	Total Liabilities
3.15B	3.45B	2.89B	2.87B	2.08B
	Stockholders Equity
37.68B	35.60B	33.66B	31.46B	23.05B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
0.00	2.17B	-101.21M	-254.64M	521.68M
	Operating Cash Flow
0.00	2.27B	-15.52M	-211.42M	574.74M
	Investing Cash Flow
0.00	553.74M	2.13B	-14.40B	-2.69B
	Financing Cash Flow
0.00	-1.17B	-1.33B	8.90B	8.32B

Full Truck Alliance Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price9.86

Price Trends

50DMA

12.15

Negative

100DMA

11.44

Negative

200DMA

9.77

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.67

Positive

RSI

35.60

Neutral

STOCH

14.56

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YMM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.90, below the 50-day MA of 12.15, and above the 200-day MA of 9.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.56 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for YMM.

Full Truck Alliance Risk Analysis

Full Truck Alliance disclosed 96 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Full Truck Alliance reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Full Truck Alliance Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (57)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YMM	77 Outperform	$10.31B	24.16	8.38%	1.28%	31.46%	38.73%
BILL	65 Neutral	$4.20B	450.48	2.11%	―	16.42%	―
LYFT	61 Neutral	$4.57B	212.50	3.48%	―	31.39%	―
GRAB	61 Neutral	$16.22B	―	-1.62%	―	18.52%	76.16%
INTA	61 Neutral	$4.15B	―	-5.29%	―	18.58%	63.63%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$20.06B	9.61	-11.19%	2.76%	5.41%	-24.85%
KC	56 Neutral	$3.58B	―	-32.59%	―	8.56%	13.34%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

YMM

Full Truck Alliance

10.32

2.82

37.60%

LYFT

Lyft

10.89

-7.38

-40.39%

BILL

Bill.com Holdings

42.21

-20.29

-32.46%

Kingsoft Cloud Holdings

13.20

10.61

409.65%

GRAB

Grab

4.06

0.79

24.16%

INTA

Intapp

53.50

22.17

70.76%

Full Truck Alliance Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 5, 2025 | % Change Since: -14.85% | Next Earnings Date: May 27, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a strong financial performance with record-breaking revenues and significant growth in key operational metrics. Despite a one-time impairment loss and strategic adjustments in the freight brokerage service, the company's robust growth in user base, monetization, and operational efficiency resulted in an overall positive outlook.

Highlights

Record-Breaking Financial Performance

Total net revenues grew by 32% year-over-year, reaching RMB3.17 billion. Non-GAAP adjusted operating income surged 142% year-over-year to RMB963.3 million, and non-GAAP adjusted net income grew by 44% year-over-year to RMB1.05 billion.

Significant Increase in Fulfilled Orders

Total fulfilled orders in the fourth quarter increased by 24% year-over-year, significantly outpacing the overall industry's growth.

User and Shipper Growth

Average monthly active shippers surpassed 2.93 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of more than 30%. Direct shippers accounted for 50% of total fulfilled orders.

Strong Monetization and Revenue Growth

Transaction service revenues surged over 70% year-over-year to RMB1.16 billion, contributing 36% of total net revenue.

Operational and Efficiency Improvements

Fulfillment rate improved to 37.5%, up 5.4 percentage points year-over-year. Trucker retention rate exceeded 85%.

Lowlights

Impairment Loss

A one-time impairment loss of RMB350 million was recorded due to an investment in an e-commerce platform facing ongoing operating losses.

Freight Brokerage Service Challenges

Revenue from freight brokerage services increased by 17% year-over-year but faced strategic adjustments due to anticipated reductions in regional tax rebates.

Company Guidance

During the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, Full Truck Alliance achieved significant growth and operational milestones. The company reported a 24% year-over-year increase in total fulfilled orders, exceeding the industry's overall growth and concluding the year on a strong note. Average monthly active shippers rose by over 30% year-over-year to 2.93 million, with direct shippers accounting for 50% of total fulfilled orders. The number of active truckers grew to 4.4 million, with a retention rate exceeding 85%. The fulfillment rate improved to 37.5%, up 5.4 percentage points year-over-year. Financially, total net revenues grew by 32% year-over-year to RMB3.17 billion. Transaction service revenues surged over 70% to RMB1.16 billion, contributing 36% of total revenue. Non-GAAP adjusted operating income increased by 142% to RMB963.3 million, and non-GAAP adjusted net income rose by 44% to RMB1.05 billion. The company also initiated a semiannual dividend policy, expecting a total cash dividend of $200 million for 2025.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.