Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

1,090 Followers

VIST Dividends

Top Page

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV

(NYSE:VIST)

76Outperform

Vista Oil & Gas demonstrates robust financial performance with strong revenue and profit margins. The company's undervalued P/E ratio and positive earnings call guidance further support its growth potential. However, caution is advised due to the high debt-to-equity ratio and negative free cash flow, which could pose future risks if not managed. The technical analysis suggests moderate momentum, indicating a balanced outlook for the near term.

Positive Factors

Operational Performance

Vista's 3Q24 results confirmed its solid operational performance and acceleration of its Vaca Muerta shale oil push.

Strategic Planning

Vista's updated strategic plan balances capital discipline with further acceleration in the development of its Vaca Muerta shale blocks in Argentina.

Negative Factors

Earnings Forecast

Weak 4Q24 previews with an expected decrease in Adj. EBITDA by 5% YoY and 12% QoQ.

Financial Performance

The sequential drop can be largely explained by two main factors: 1) lower oil realized prices at US$67.1/bbl; and 2) higher selling expenses due to a temporary increase in transportation of crude oil as they increased the volume sold via trucking.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$4.47B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.21M

Price to Earnings (P/E)9.4

Beta (1Y)0.66

Revenue Growth45.43%

EPS Growth16.98%

CountryUS

Employees528

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength52

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)4.98

Shares Outstanding95,195,885

10 Day Avg. Volume1,949,887

30 Day Avg. Volume1,212,341

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.55

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)13.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$65.13

Price Target Upside39.08% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets are located in Vaca Muerta with approximately 183, 100 acres. It also owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved reserves of 181.6 MMBOE. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.

How the Company Makes MoneyVista Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company sells its produced hydrocarbons to domestic and international markets, often through long-term supply agreements and spot market sales. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, which is typically priced in relation to global benchmarks such as Brent or WTI, and the sale of natural gas, which may be priced based on regional market conditions. Additionally, Vista Oil & Gas may engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to optimize production capabilities and expand its market reach. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as global oil prices, production volumes, operational efficiencies, and regulatory policies in the regions where it operates.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vista Oil & Gas shows strong growth and profitability, particularly in recent years, with impressive revenue and profit margins. The balance sheet indicates growing equity but also a high debt-to-equity ratio, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Cash flow performance is solid, despite recent negative free cash flow due to increased investments. Overall, the company is on a positive trajectory but should monitor leverage levels and maintain cash flow stability.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Vista Oil & Gas has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a CAGR of over 30% from 2020 to 2024. The gross profit margin has significantly improved, reaching approximately 76.2% in 2024. The net profit margin also saw a healthy increase, reaching 29% in 2024, indicating enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting efficient operational management. Overall, there's a positive trajectory in revenue and profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet shows a stable increase in stockholders' equity over the years, with an equity ratio of about 38.3% in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at approximately 0.95, which may indicate potential leverage risks. However, the company has managed to grow its assets and equity significantly, suggesting a solid financial foundation.

Cash Flow

Positive

Operating cash flow has grown consistently, with a substantial increase observed in 2024. The free cash flow fluctuated, turning negative in 2024 due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, indicating that the company generates sufficient cash to support its operations. However, negative free cash flow could be a concern if it continues.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.65B	1.17B	1.14B	652.19M	273.94M
	Gross Profit
1.26B	591.25M	630.24M	266.61M	2.43M
	EBIT
625.39M	631.49M	529.15M	210.55M	-53.56M
	EBITDA
1.06B	851.24M	706.13M	403.56M	90.23M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
477.52M	396.95M	269.54M	50.65M	-102.75M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
764.31M	213.25M	244.96M	315.31M	203.27M
	Total Assets
4.23B	2.60B	2.04B	1.68B	1.37B
	Total Debt
1.54B	686.52M	578.53M	638.05M	563.47M
	Net Debt
788.62M	477.01M	554.62M	559.95M	560.59M
	Total Liabilities
2.61B	1.35B	1.19B	1.12B	864.09M
	Stockholders Equity
1.62B	1.25B	844.06M	565.26M	508.52M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-93.50M	16.30M	204.38M	78.50M	-63.14M
	Operating Cash Flow
959.03M	712.03M	689.77M	401.39M	93.78M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.05B	-699.31M	-582.71M	-295.46M	-156.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
641.21M	19.56M	-143.20M	6.53M	30.89M

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price46.83

Price Trends

50DMA

46.59

Positive

100DMA

51.04

Negative

200DMA

49.50

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.34

Negative

RSI

56.19

Neutral

STOCH

85.55

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 46.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.26, above the 50-day MA of 46.59, and below the 200-day MA of 49.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.55 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VIST.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VIST	76 Outperform	$4.47B	9.41	33.30%	―	45.43%	16.98%
MUR	73 Outperform	$2.98B	7.74	7.77%	5.88%	-12.48%	-36.47%
CRC	70 Outperform	$3.17B	7.57	13.06%	4.29%	5.12%	-47.76%
MGY	68 Neutral	$3.94B	10.47	20.06%	2.67%	7.25%	-4.99%
BSM	66 Neutral	$3.06B	12.61	23.12%	10.37%	-12.71%	-39.85%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$7.05B	3.40	-6.09%	6.09%	-0.43%	-51.04%
CNX	48 Neutral	$4.51B	9.01	-2.14%	―	-4.26%	-105.72%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

VIST

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV

47.60

4.21

9.70%

CNX

CNX Resources

30.59

6.38

26.35%

MUR

Murphy Oil

20.59

-24.00

-53.82%

BSM

Black Stone Minerals

14.47

0.11

0.77%

MGY

Magnolia Oil & Gas

20.70

-4.85

-18.98%

CRC

California Resources Corp

34.87

-18.44

-34.59%

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Apr 23, 2025 | % Change Since: 0.00% | Next Earnings Date: Jul 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong operational and financial performance, with significant production and revenue growth, successful export strategies, and updated guidance showing positive future prospects. However, there were concerns about negative free cash flow and increased operational costs.

Highlights

Significant Production Increase

Total production was 72,800 BOEs per day, marking a 47% year-over-year increase and 12% quarter-over-quarter growth. Oil production specifically increased by 53% year-over-year.

Revenue and EBITDA Growth

Total revenues for the quarter reached $462 million, showing a 53% increase year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was $310 million, a 37% increase compared to the same quarter last year.

Export Strategy Success

Vista exported 3.5 million barrels of oil during the quarter, which is 57% more than the previous year. 72% of total oil sales were at export parity prices.

Guidance Update

Updated 2025 guidance with a forecast of total production between 95,000 and 100,000 barrels of oil per day, indicating more than a 40% growth.

Operational Milestones

Secured oil midstream capacity of 124,000 barrels per day by year-end 2025 and secured a third drilling rig and a second frac set.

Lowlights

Negative Free Cash Flow

The free cash flow for the quarter was negative at $74 million, primarily due to increased cash in investing activities.

Increased Lifting Costs

Lifting costs per BOE increased by 5% sequentially, driven by higher costs in gathering, processing, gas compression, and power generation.

Company Guidance

During Vista's Q3 2024 earnings call, the company provided robust guidance marked by a significant operational and financial performance. Total production reached 72,800 BOEs per day, a 47% increase year-over-year, and oil production was 63,500 barrels per day, 53% higher compared to the same quarter last year. Total revenues were $462 million, reflecting a 53% year-over-year growth. The lifting cost was reported at $4.70 per BOE, a 2% decrease from the previous year. Capital expenditure was $369 million, driven by the drilling of 12 new wells and completion of 15 wells, along with $63 million in development facilities. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $310 million, a 37% increase year-over-year, while adjusted net income was $53 million, equating to an adjusted EPS of $0.60 per share. The free cash flow was negative $74 million due to increased capital expenditure, and the net leverage ratio stood at 0.65x adjusted EBITDA. For 2025, Vista forecasts total production between 95,000 and 100,000 barrels per day, with an adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 billion to $1.65 billion and a capital expenditure range of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion, excluding potential investments in the Vaca Muerta Sul oil pipeline and export terminal. The company aims for a realized oil price of $67 to $72 per barrel, assuming a Brent price of $75 to $80 per barrel.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.