Vector Group (VGR) Risk Analysis

Cigarettes are subject to substantial regulation and taxation at the federal, state and local levels, which has had and may continue to have an adverse effect on our business. For a more complete discussion of the material regulations and taxation applicable to our Business, see Item 1. "Business. Legislation and Regulation." For instance: - Federal, state and local laws have limited the advertising, sale and use of cigarettes in the U.S., such as laws prohibiting smoking in restaurants and other public places. Private businesses have also implemented prohibitions on the use of cigarettes. Further regulations or rules limiting advertising, sale or use of cigarettes or ingredients or flavorings could negatively impact sales of cigarettes, which would have an adverse effect on our results of operations. - The federal government, as well as certain state, city and county governments, impose excise taxes on cigarettes, which has had, and is expected to continue to have, an adverse effect on sales of cigarettes. - Various state and local government regulations have, among other things, increased the minimum age to purchase tobacco products, banned the sale of menthol cigarettes, restricted or banned sampling and advertising and required ingredient and constituent disclosure. Significantly, the federal government increased the minimum age of sale for tobacco products from 18 to 21 years of age in December 2019. Further regulations that limit the group of individuals able to purchase cigarettes in the U.S. or other regulations that limit the types of products we can offer, such as limitations on use of flavoring or nicotine content, could have a material adverse effect on demand for our products, our results of operations and our business. FDA and other organizations have also conducted anti-tobacco media campaigns, which have and may continue to have an adverse effect on the demand for cigarettes. There have also been adverse legislative and political decisions and other unfavorable developments concerning cigarette smoking and the tobacco industry, as well as restrictive actions by federal agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency and FDA. Additionally, all states have enacted statutes requiring cigarettes to meet a reduced ignition propensity standard. These developments may negatively affect the perception of potential triers of fact with respect to the tobacco industry, possibly to the detriment of certain pending litigation, and may prompt the commencement of additional similar litigation or legislation. We are not able to evaluate the effect of these developing matters on pending litigation or the possible commencement of additional litigation, but our consolidated financial position, results of operations or cash flows could be materially adversely affected. Additional federal, state or local regulations relating to the manufacture, sale, distribution, advertising, labeling, or information disclosure of tobacco products could further reduce sales, increase costs and have a material adverse effect on our business.

In connection with the Transition Services Agreement, we and Douglas Elliman, as parties receiving services under the agreement, agreed to indemnify the party providing services for losses incurred by such party that arise out of or are otherwise in connection with the provision by such party of services under the agreement, except to the extent that such losses result from the providing party's gross negligence, willful misconduct or breach of its obligations under the agreement. Similarly, each party providing services under the agreement agreed to indemnify the party receiving services for losses incurred by such party that arise out of or are otherwise in connection with the indemnifying party's provision of services under the agreement if such losses result from the providing party's gross negligence, willful misconduct or breach of its obligations under the agreement. In connection with our tobacco business, from time-to-time Douglas Elliman may be named as a defendant in tobacco-related lawsuits, notwithstanding the completion of the Distribution. Pursuant to the Distribution Agreement, we and each of our subsidiaries agreed to indemnify Douglas Elliman for liabilities related to our tobacco business, including liabilities that Douglas Elliman may incur for tobacco-related litigation. In connection with the Distribution, Douglas Elliman provided us with indemnities with respect to liabilities arising out of Douglas Elliman's business. If we are subject to an adverse decision in a lawsuit related to Douglas Elliman's business, and Douglas Elliman fails to satisfy its obligations, our financial condition could be materially adversely affected.

The Tax Act limits our interest expense deduction to 30% of taxable income before interest thereafter for non-excepted trade or businesses. One such excepted trade or business is any electing real property trade or business, of which portions of our New Valley real estate business may qualify. Interest expense allocable to an excepted trade or business is not subject to limitation. The Tax Act permits us to carry forward disallowed interest expense indefinitely. Due to our high degree of leverage, a portion of our interest expense in future years may not be deductible, which may increase the after-tax cost of any new debt financings as well as the refinancing of our existing debt. We evaluate the impact of the nondeductible interest on our operations and capital structure on an annual basis.

The real estate industry is significantly affected by changes in economic and political conditions as well as real estate markets, which could adversely impact returns on our investments, trigger defaults in project financing, cause cancellations of property sales, reduce the value of our properties or investments and could affect our results of operations and liquidity. The real estate industry is cyclical and is significantly affected by changes in general and local economic conditions which are beyond our control. These conditions include short-term and long-term interest rates, inflation, fluctuations in debt and equity capital markets, levels of unemployment, consumer confidence and the general economic condition of the U.S. and the global economy. The real estate market also depends upon the strength of financial institutions, which are sensitive to changes in the general macroeconomic environment. Lack of available credit or lack of confidence in the financial sector could impact the real estate market, which in turn could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. Any of the following could be associated with cyclicality in the real estate market by halting or limiting a recovery in the residential and commercial real estate markets, and have an adverse effect on our business by causing periods of lower growth or a decline in the number of home sales and/or property prices which, in turn, could adversely affect our business and financial condition: - periods of economic slowdown or recession;- rising interest rates;- the general availability of mortgage financing;- a negative perception of the market for residential and commercial real estate;- an increase in the cost of homeowners' insurance;- weak credit markets;- a low level of consumer confidence in the economy and/or the real estate market;- instability of financial institutions;- legislative, tax or regulatory changes that would adversely impact the real estate market, including but not limited to potential reform relating to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other government sponsored entities that provide liquidity to the U.S. housing and mortgage markets, and potential limits on, or elimination of, the income tax deduction of certain mortgage interest expense and property taxes;- adverse changes in economic and general business conditions in the areas we invest;- declining demand for real estate;- acts of God, such as hurricanes, earthquakes and other natural disasters, or acts or threats of war or terrorism; and/or - adverse changes in global, national, regional and local economic and market conditions, particularly where our businesses operate, including those relating to pandemics and health crises. Real estate development is a competitive industry, and competitive conditions may adversely affect our results of operations. The real estate development industry is highly competitive. Real estate developers compete not only for buyers, but also for desirable properties, building materials, labor and capital. We compete with other local, regional, national and international real estate asset managers, investors and property developers, which have significant financial resources and experience. Competitive conditions in the real estate development industry could result in difficulty in acquiring suitable investments in properties at acceptable prices, increased selling incentives, lower sales volumes and prices, lower profit margins, impairments in the value of our investments in real estate developments and other assets, and/or increased construction costs, delays in construction and increased carry costs. Development projects are subject to special risks including potential increase in costs, changes in market demand, inability to meet deadlines which may delay the timely completion of projects, reliance on contractors who may be unable to perform and the need to obtain various governmental and third-party consents. If the market value of our properties or investments decline, our results of operations could be adversely affected by impairments and write-downs. We acquire land and invest in real estate projects in the ordinary course of our business. There is an inherent risk that the value of our land and investments may decline after purchase, which also may affect the value of existing properties under construction. The valuation of property is inherently subjective and based on the individual characteristics of each property. The market value of our land and investments in real estate projects depends on general and local real estate market conditions. These conditions can change and thereby subject valuations to uncertainty. Moreover, all valuations are based on assumptions that may not prove to reflect economic or demographic reality. We may have acquired options to buy or bought and developed land at a cost we will not be able to recover fully or on which we cannot build and sell the property profitably. In addition, our deposits or investments in deposits for building lots controlled under option or similar contracts may be put at risk. If market conditions deteriorate, some of our assets may be subject to impairments and write-down charges which would adversely affect our operations and financial results. If demand for residential or commercial real estate decreases below what was anticipated when we purchased interests in or developed such inventory, profitability may be adversely affected and we may not be able to recover the related costs when selling and building our properties and/or investments. We regularly review the value of our investments and will continue to do so on a periodic basis. Write-downs and impairments in the value of our properties and/or investments may be required, and we may in the future sell properties and/or investments at a loss, which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. We face risks associated with property acquisitions. We may be unable to finance acquisitions or investments on favorable terms or properties may fail to perform as expected. We may underestimate the costs necessary to bring an investment up to standards established for its intended market position. We may also acquire or invest in properties subject to liabilities and with recourse, with respect to unknown liabilities. New Valley's acquisition of real estate investments are subject to several risks including: underestimated operating expenses for a property, possibly making it uneconomical or unprofitable; a property may fail to perform in accordance with expectations, in which case New Valley may sustain lower-than-expected income or need to incur additional expenses for the property; and New Valley may not be able to sell, dispose or refinance the property at a favorable price or terms, or at all, as the case may be; in addition to any potential loss on a sale, New Valley may have no choice but to hold on to the property and continue to incur net operating losses if underperforming for an indefinite period of time, as well as incur continuing tax, environmental and other liabilities. Acquisition agreements will typically contain conditions to closing, including completion of due diligence to our satisfaction or other conditions that are not within our control, which may not be satisfied. Each of these factors could have an adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. If we, or the entities we invest in, are not able to develop and market our real estate developments successfully or within expected timeframes or at projected pricing, our business and results of operations will be adversely affected. Before a property development generates any revenues, material expenditures are incurred to acquire land, obtain development approvals and construct significant portions of project infrastructure, amenities, model offices, showrooms, apartments or homes and sales facilities. It generally takes several years for a real estate development to achieve cumulative positive cash flow. If we, or the entities we invest in, are unable to develop and market our real estate developments successfully or to generate positive cash flows from these operations within expected timeframes, it could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations. Because certain of our assets are illiquid, we may not be able to sell these assets when appropriate or when desired. Large real estate developments like the ones that we retain investments in can be hard to sell, especially if local market conditions are poor. Such illiquidity could limit our ability to diversify our assets promptly in response to changing economic or investment conditions. Additionally, financial difficulties of other property owners resulting in distressed sales could depress real estate values in the markets in which we operate in times of illiquidity. These restrictions reduce our ability to respond to changes in the performance of our assets and could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations. Guaranty risks; risks of joint ventures. New Valley has real estate-related investments in which other partners hold significant interests. New Valley must seek approval from these other parties for important actions regarding these joint ventures. Since the other parties' interests may differ from those of New Valley, a deadlock could arise that might impair the ability of the ventures to function. Such a deadlock could significantly harm a venture. Further, our minority interest in these joint ventures means that we may not be able to influence the outcome of a project, and our rights to obtain information may be limited to the contractual requirements. As a result, we may not have adequate insight into the financial condition of any of our joint ventures given that we do not oversee their financial reporting or decision making. If our partners face adverse financial conditions, it may impair their ability to fund capital calls or satisfy their share of any guarantees on project financing. In addition, we are typically obligated to execute guarantees or indemnify our partners for guarantees they may execute in connection with the acquisition or construction financing for our projects. The guarantees that we might be obligated to sign include guarantees for environmental liability at a project, improper acts committed by New Valley (otherwise known as a "bad boy" guaranty), as well as carry and completion guarantees for a project. In the event of a default, if a lender were to exercise its rights under these guarantees, it could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations. The real estate developments we invest in may be subject to losses as a result of construction defects. Real estate developers are subject to construction defect and warranty claims arising in the ordinary course of their business. These claims are common in the real estate development industry and can be costly. Claims may be asserted against the real estate developments we invest in for construction defects, personal injury or property damage caused by the developer, general contractor or subcontractors, and if successful, these claims may give rise to liability. Subcontractors are independent of the homebuilders that contract with them under normal management practices and the terms of trade contracts and subcontracts within the industry; however, if U.S. or other regulatory agencies or courts reclassify the employees of sub-contractors as employees of real estate developers, real estate developers using subcontractors could be responsible for wage, hour and other employment-related liabilities of their subcontractors. In addition, where the real estate developments in which we invest hire general contractors, unforeseen events such as the bankruptcy of, or an uninsured or under-insured loss claimed against, the general contractor may sometimes result in the real estate developer becoming responsible for the losses or other obligations of the general contractor. The costs of insuring against construction defect and product liability claims are high, and the amount of coverage offered by insurance companies may be limited. There can be no assurance that this coverage will not be further restricted and become more costly. If the real estate developments in our real estate portfolio are not able to obtain adequate insurance against these claims in the future, our business and results of operations may be adversely affected. Increasingly in recent years, individual and class action lawsuits have been filed against real estate developers asserting claims of personal injury and property damage caused by a variety of issues, including faulty materials and the presence of mold in residential dwellings. Furthermore, decreases in home values as a result of general economic conditions may result in an increase in both non-meritorious and meritorious construction defect claims, as well as claims based on marketing and sales practices. Insurance may not cover all claims arising from such issues, or such coverage may become prohibitively expensive. If real estate developments in our real estate portfolio are not able to obtain adequate insurance against these claims, they may experience litigation costs and losses that could reduce our revenues from these investments. Even if they are successful in defending such claims, we may incur significant losses. Our real estate investments may face substantial damages as a result of existing or future litigation, arbitration or other claims. The real estate developments we invest in are exposed to potentially significant litigation, arbitration proceedings and other claims, including breach of contract, contractual disputes and disputes relating to defective title, property misdescription or construction defects. Class action lawsuits can be costly to defend, and if our assets were to lose any certified class action suit, it could result in substantial liability. With respect to certain general liability exposures, including construction defect and product liability claims, interpretation of underlying current and future trends, assessment of claims and the related liability and reserve estimation process requires us to exercise significant judgment due to the complex nature of these exposures, with each exposure exhibiting unique circumstances. Furthermore, once claims are asserted for construction defects, it is difficult to determine the extent to which the assertion of these claims will expand geographically. As a result, we may suffer losses on our investments which could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. Our investments in real estate are susceptible to adverse weather conditions and natural and man-made disasters. Adverse weather conditions and natural and man-made disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, earthquakes, floods, droughts, fires, snow, blizzards, as well as terrorist attacks, riots and electrical outages, can have a significant effect on the assets in our real estate portfolio. The severity and frequency of these adverse weather conditions are worsened by the effects of climate change. These adverse conditions can cause physical damage to work in progress and new developments, delays and increased costs in the construction of new developments and disruptions and suspensions of operations, whether caused directly or by disrupting or suspending operations of those upon whom our real estate developments rely in their operations. Such adverse conditions can mutually cause or aggravate each other, and their incidence and severity are unpredictable. If insurance is unavailable to the real estate developments we invest in or is unavailable on acceptable terms, or if insurance is not adequate to cover business interruptions or losses resulting from adverse weather or natural or man-made disasters, the real estate developments we invest in and our results of operations will be adversely affected. In addition, damage to properties in our real estate portfolio caused by adverse weather or a natural or man-made disaster may cause insurance costs for these properties to increase. A major health and safety incident relating to our real estate investments could be costly in terms of potential liabilities and reputational damage. Building sites are inherently dangerous and operating in the real estate development industry poses certain inherent health and safety risks. Due to regulatory requirements, health and safety performance is critical to the success of our real estate investments. Any failure in health and safety performance may result in penalties for non-compliance with relevant regulatory requirements, and a failure that results in a major or significant health and safety incident is likely to be costly in terms of potential liabilities incurred as a result. Such a failure could generate significant negative publicity and have a corresponding impact on the reputation and relationships of the developer with relevant regulatory agencies or governmental authorities, which in turn could have an adverse effect on our investment and operating results. Insurance may not cover some potential losses or may not be obtainable at commercially reasonable rates, which could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations. Real estate properties in our real estate portfolio maintain insurance on their properties in amounts and with deductibles that we believe are comparable with what owners of similar properties carry; however, such insurance may not cover some potential losses or may not be obtainable at commercially reasonable rates in the future. There are also certain types of risks (such as war, environmental contamination such as toxic mold, and lease and other contract claims) which are either uninsurable or not economically insurable. Should any uninsured or underinsured loss occur, we could lose our investment in, and anticipated profits and cash flows from, one or more properties.

NPM Adjustment. In March 2006, an economic consulting firm selected pursuant to the MSA determined that the MSA was a "significant factor contributing to" the loss of market share of the Participating Manufacturers for 2003. This same determination has been made for additional years. This is known as the "NPM Adjustment." As a result, the Participating Manufacturers may be entitled to potential NPM Adjustments to their MSA payments. As of December 31, 2023, the Participating Manufacturers had entered into agreements with 40 Settling States setting out terms for settlement of the NPM Adjustment and addressing the NPM Adjustment with respect to those states for future years. The arbitration for 2004 found three states liable for the NPM Adjustment. Two of these states have challenged the determinations. As of December 31, 2023, Liggett and Vector Tobacco accrued approximately $8.7 million related to disputed amounts withheld from the non-settling states for 2004 - 2010, which may be subject to payment, with interest, if Liggett and Vector Tobacco lose the disputes for those years.

We depend on the efforts of our executive officers and other key personnel as our named executive officers have been employed by us for an average of 28 years as of December 31, 2023. While we believe that we could find replacements for these key personnel, the loss of their services could have a significant adverse effect on our operations. For more information about certain of our key personnel, see "- After the Distribution, certain of our executive officers do not devote their full time to Vector Group's affairs, and the overlap may give rise to conflicts."