TMX Group (X) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.40B
• Dividend Yield: 1.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 670.69K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.35
• Revenue Growth: -4.94%
• EPS Growth: 2.93%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 2,039
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
• EPS (TTM): 0.52
• Shares Outstanding: 278,160,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 601,709
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 670,687
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.51
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.51
• 1Y Price Target: $62.34
• Price Target Upside: 20.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: C$58.00 ▲(12.01% Upside)

TMX Group's overall stock score reflects a strong earnings call performance, which is the most significant factor, showcasing robust revenue growth and strategic initiatives. However, financial performance is challenged by declining revenue and profitability margins, and technical analysis indicates a bearish trend. The high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation, while the dividend yield is modest.

Positive Factors

Negative Factors

TMX Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TMX Group Limited operates exchanges, markets, and clearinghouses primarily for capital markets in Canada and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Global Solutions, Insights & Analytics; Capital Formation; Derivatives Trading and Clearing; and Equities and Fixed Income Trading & Clearing. The Global Solutions, Insights & Analytics segment delivers equities and index data, as well as integrated data sets for the proprietary and third party analytics to help clients in making trading and investment decisions; and provides solutions to European and global wholesale energy markets for price discovery, trade execution, post-trade transparency, and straight through processing. The Capital Formation segment operates Toronto Stock Exchange, a national stock exchange for the senior equities market; TSX Venture Exchange, a national stock exchange for the public venture equity market; and TSX Trust that provides corporate trust, registrar, transfer agency, and foreign exchange services. The Derivatives Trading & Clearing segment operates Montreal Exchange, a national derivatives exchange; Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation, a clearinghouse for options and futures contracts; and various over-the-counter products and fixed income repurchase agreements. The Equities and Fixed Income Trading & Clearing segment engages in the trading operations of Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange, and TSX Alpha Exchange; and clearing and settlement of equities and fixed income transactions, and custody of securities; and provision of fixed income inter-dealer brokerage services. The company was formerly known as Maple Group Acquisition Corporation and changed its name to TMX Group Limited in August 2012. TMX Group Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

TMX Group generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily driven by trading, clearing, and listing fees associated with its various exchanges. The company earns listing fees from companies that seek to list their shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange. Trading fees are collected from market participants engaging in buying and selling securities on its platforms. TMX Group also earns clearing and settlement fees through its Canadian Depository for Securities and the Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation. In addition, the company leverages its extensive market data and analytics services to generate subscription-based revenue from clients seeking comprehensive financial market information. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and continuous innovation in market technology further bolster TMX Group's revenue model.

TMX Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TMX Group demonstrates a stable financial position with strong cash flow management and moderate leverage. However, declining revenue and profitability margins pose challenges. The company needs to address revenue growth and improve operational efficiency to enhance profitability and shareholder returns.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has a strong gross profit margin of 64.95% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 26.58% TTM from 32.98% in the previous year, reflecting reduced profitability. Revenue growth is negative at -18.12% TTM, suggesting a decline in sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are unusually high due to potential accounting adjustments, which may not reflect operational efficiency accurately.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45 TTM, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity has decreased to 2.92% TTM from 10.52% in the previous year, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating returns from equity. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with a free cash flow growth rate of 12.10% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.02 TTM, which may suggest potential issues in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 87.58% TTM, highlighting effective cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.59B	1.46B	2.90B	1.12B	980.70M	865.10M
Gross Profit	1.03B	958.80M	2.81B	751.00M	662.60M	580.90M
EBITDA	2.22B	2.46B	2.35B	1.57B	578.30M	496.20M
Net Income	422.00M	481.50M	356.00M	542.70M	338.50M	279.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	47.81B	40.21B	64.34B	55.98B	63.20B	36.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	465.60M	433.40M	419.60M	493.10M	341.60M	277.90M
Total Debt	2.09B	2.17B	1.15B	1.11B	1.10B	1.01B
Total Liabilities	42.96B	35.39B	60.02B	51.78B	59.49B	32.49B
Stockholders Equity	4.64B	4.58B	4.11B	3.99B	3.71B	3.61B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	620.60M	549.70M	459.70M	392.20M	390.20M	343.80M
Operating Cash Flow	708.60M	623.40M	524.90M	444.10M	441.40M	410.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-188.40M	-1.17B	-289.30M	-41.40M	-203.90M	-34.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-590.10M	562.60M	-309.20M	-292.90M	-194.80M	-304.40M

TMX Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 51.78
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:X, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 51.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.13, below the 50-day MA of 53.04, and below the 200-day MA of 52.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:X.

TMX Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IAG	―	C$15.08B	15.12	13.43%	2.24%	-4.55%	42.41%
POW	―	C$39.03B	14.13	12.07%	4.41%	11.56%	1.15%
Sector *	―	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
X	―	$14.40B	31.30	9.87%	1.56%	-4.94%	2.93%
BAM	―	C$122.47B	36.70	26.64%	3.08%	554.20%	37.48%
BN	―	C$163.80B	158.67	1.83%	0.49%	-20.34%	-21.46%

TMX Group Corporate Events

TMX Group Reports Strong Revenue Growth Amid Challenges

TMX Group Limited is a Canadian company that operates global markets and provides digital communities and analytic solutions for businesses, traders, and investors. It is known for its key operations, including the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Montréal Exchange, among others.

TMX Group Ltd. Reports Record Revenue Growth in Earnings Call

TMX Group Ltd. recently held its earnings call, revealing a strong performance characterized by record revenue growth. The company reported significant gains across multiple segments, particularly in Derivatives Trading and Global Insights. Despite challenges such as decreased diluted earnings per share and increased operating expenses due to strategic initiatives and acquisitions, the overall sentiment remains positive, driven by record financial achievements and strategic growth initiatives.

TMX Group Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results with Strategic Expansions

TMX Group Limited reported a 15% increase in revenue for Q2 2025, reaching $421.7 million, driven by strong performance across derivatives and equities markets, and growth in TMX Trayport and TMX VettaFi. Despite a decrease in diluted earnings per share due to foreign exchange losses, the company announced a 10% dividend increase, reflecting its commitment to shareholder value. The launch of the Post Trade Modernization project and the acquisition of ETF Stream are expected to enhance TMX’s operational capabilities and market presence in Europe.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:X) stock is a Hold with a C$41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TMX Group stock, see the TSE:X Stock Forecast page.

TMX Group Increases Dividend by 10%, Reflecting Strong Growth Strategy

TMX Group Limited announced a 10% increase in its dividend to $0.22 per common share, reflecting the company’s strong business model and global growth strategy. This marks the fifth dividend increase in three years, underscoring TMX Group’s commitment to delivering value to shareholders and maintaining disciplined capital allocation. The dividend is payable on August 29, 2025, to shareholders of record as of August 15, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:X) stock is a Hold with a C$41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TMX Group stock, see the TSE:X Stock Forecast page.