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Northland Power (TSE:NPI)
TSX:NPI

Northland Power (NPI) AI Stock Analysis

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Northland Power

(TSX:NPI)

75Outperform
Northland Power scores well due to solid financial performance and a positive earnings outlook, supported by a strong dividend yield and fair valuation. The company's strategic projects and sustainability focus enhance its investment appeal. However, high leverage and mixed technical indicators necessitate cautious optimism.
Positive Factors
Financial performance
The gross 2.4GW of construction projects are expected to add substantial EBITDA, underpinning a projected 7-10% EBITDA CAGR through 2027.
Growth potential
NPI is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the significant growth expected in the offshore wind market.
Negative Factors
Earnings
NPI reported Q3/24 adjusted EBITDA below expectations, primarily due to issues in Offshore Wind and Natural Gas performance.
Market guidance
Given the ~7% adj. EBITDA miss and less positive directional tone on the 2024 guide, shares could trade heavy in the near term.

Northland Power (NPI) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Northland Power Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNorthland Power Inc., an independent power producer, develops, builds, owns, and operates clean and green power projects in North America, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. The company produces electricity from renewable resources, such as wind, solar, or hydropower, as well as clean-burning natural gas and biomass for sale under power purchase agreements and other revenue arrangements. It owned or had an economic interest in 3.2 gigawatts of operating generating capacity. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyNorthland Power generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of electricity from its renewable and clean energy assets. The company's key revenue streams include long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with utility companies and other large-scale purchasers, which provide stable and predictable cash flows. Additionally, Northland Power benefits from government incentives and subsidies for renewable energy projects, particularly in jurisdictions with strong support for green energy initiatives. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its project portfolio and enhance its market presence, further contributing to its revenue growth.

Northland Power Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Overall, Northland Power showcases a strong financial position with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability. While high leverage is a concern, the company effectively manages its cash flows, supporting its operations and growth initiatives.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Northland Power demonstrates solid revenue growth with a 5.1% increase from 2023 to 2024 and a recovery in net income from a loss in 2023 to a profit in 2024. The gross profit margin remains strong, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 11.6% due to high interest and tax expenses, suggesting room for profitability improvements.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet shows a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.72, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed well. However, the company has maintained solid equity growth over the years, and the equity ratio of 30.8% suggests a reasonable proportion of assets financed by shareholders' equity. The return on equity improved to 6.5% in 2024, which is a positive sign.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Northland Power's cash flow statement reflects a robust operating cash flow, which increased significantly from 2023 to 2024. The free cash flow growth of 38.9% is impressive, indicating effective capital expenditure management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high, showing strong cash generation relative to reported profits.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.35B2.23B2.45B2.09B2.06B
Gross Profit
2.35B1.61B2.18B1.88B1.86B
EBIT
812.89M741.16M1.05B808.65M900.21M
EBITDA
1.59B1.26B2.22B1.41B1.54B
Net Income Common Stockholders
271.82M-175.19M827.73M269.88M381.08M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
613.32M813.50M1.30B673.69M434.99M
Total Assets
13.60B13.63B14.22B12.88B11.40B
Total Debt
7.20B7.20B7.17B7.63B7.59B
Net Debt
6.59B6.55B5.87B6.96B7.15B
Total Liabilities
9.05B9.14B9.50B9.91B9.40B
Stockholders Equity
4.19B4.19B4.39B2.76B1.58B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
476.75M343.05M1.31B1.14B1.10B
Operating Cash Flow
1.03B785.21M1.83B1.61B1.32B
Investing Cash Flow
-448.81M-1.17B-629.68M-1.03B-839.27M
Financing Cash Flow
-720.25M-262.04M-604.84M-225.68M-389.53M

Northland Power Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price18.56
Price Trends
50DMA
18.72
Negative
100DMA
18.35
Positive
200DMA
19.83
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.18
Positive
RSI
47.41
Neutral
STOCH
68.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NPI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.92, below the 50-day MA of 18.72, and below the 200-day MA of 19.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:NPI.

Northland Power Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSNPI
75
Outperform
$4.84B17.986.48%6.36%5.08%
TSCPX
75
Outperform
C$7.19B9.2218.00%5.40%-26.31%-14.85%
TSINE
67
Neutral
C$2.74B266.471.44%2.67%2.60%
63
Neutral
$8.55B12.136.36%4.42%3.05%-9.27%
TSBLX
61
Neutral
C$3.09B85.762.23%2.20%-16.54%-53.85%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:NPI
Northland Power
18.68
-1.56
-7.72%
TAC
TransAlta
8.57
2.08
32.05%
TSE:BLX
Boralex Inc Cl A
30.16
3.16
11.70%
TSE:CPX
Capital Power
48.59
14.77
43.67%
TSE:INE
Innergex Renewable Energy
13.52
5.61
70.92%
AQN
Algonquin Power & Utilities
5.24
-0.60
-10.27%

Northland Power Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 27, 2025 | % Change Since: -1.40% | Next Earnings Date: May 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Northland Power's strong financial position and progress in major projects, indicating a positive outlook for future growth. While there are some challenges such as a decrease in quarterly adjusted EBITDA and potential tariff impacts, the company's strategic partnerships and diversified portfolio position it well to capitalize on energy demand trends.
Highlights
Strong Financial Position
Northland Power reported over CAD2.3 billion in revenues and available liquidity of over CAD1 billion, maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet.
High-End Financial Guidance Achieved
Northland Power achieved the high end of its financial guidance for 2024, with adjusted EBITDA reaching CAD1.3 billion, a 2% increase compared to the previous year.
Progress on Major Projects
Significant advancements were made on three large construction projects: Hai Long, Baltic Power offshore wind projects, and Oneida battery storage project, totaling CAD16 billion in investment and 2.4 gigawatts.
Positive Outlook for 2025
Northland Power expects 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of CAD1.3 to CAD1.4 billion, driven by growth projects under construction, including Hai Long and Oneida.
Strong Partnerships Established
Northland Power has developed strong relationships with global partners like ORLEN, Mitsui, Gentari, ESB, and others, enhancing their project execution capabilities.
Lowlights
Decrease in Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA
Q4 2024 adjusted EBITDA was CAD312 million, a decrease from the previous year, largely attributed to a one-off gain recognized from the Hai Long partnership in 2023.
Challenges in Offshore Wind Resource
The offshore wind resource was lower than the historical high experienced in Q4 2023, impacting revenue generation.
Tariff and Regulatory Concerns
Potential U.S. tariffs could impact future operations, although current diversification mitigates immediate risk. Regulatory processes remain a hurdle in various jurisdictions.
Company Guidance
During the Northland Power conference call discussing the fourth quarter 2024 results, the company provided key financial metrics and guidance for 2025. Northland Power reported adjusted EBITDA of CAD 312 million for Q4, with a full-year adjusted EBITDA of CAD 1.3 billion, representing a 2% increase from the previous year. The company achieved the higher end of its 2024 financial guidance. For 2025, Northland Power projects adjusted EBITDA between CAD 1.3 and CAD 1.4 billion, driven by contributions from projects like Hai Long and Oneida. The guidance anticipates adjusted free cash flow per share to be CAD 1.30 to CAD 1.50, with free cash flow expected between CAD 1.10 and CAD 1.30 per share. The company highlighted its robust liquidity position with over CAD 1 billion available and announced a change in its Dividend Reinvestment Program (DRIP) to reduce shareholder dilution. Northland Power is also progressing on its CAD 16 billion investments in three major projects, which are expected to generate approximately CAD 600 million in adjusted EBITDA and CAD 200 million in free cash flow annually upon completion.

Northland Power Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Northland Power Highlights 2024 Sustainability Achievements
Positive
Apr 22, 2025

Northland Power released its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting significant achievements in sustainability and energy transition. The report showcases progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, advancing renewable projects, and maintaining strong sustainability ratings. These efforts underscore Northland’s commitment to responsible energy production and its role in the global shift towards sustainable energy solutions.

Spark’s Take on TSE:NPI Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:NPI is a Outperform.

Northland Power’s overall score reflects its strong financial performance, attractive dividend yield, and positive earnings outlook. The company’s strategic growth initiatives and recent corporate developments further enhance its investment appeal, though high leverage and mixed technical indicators suggest a need for cautious optimism.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:NPI stock, click here.

Business Operations and Strategy
Northland Power Advances Sustainability Goals in 2024 Report
Positive
Apr 22, 2025

Northland Power released its 2024 Sustainability Report, showcasing significant progress in sustainability achievements and its commitment to the global energy transition. The report highlights key milestones in major projects such as Hai Long, Baltic Power, and Oneida, and emphasizes the company’s efforts in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and maintaining strong sustainability ratings. The achievements underscore Northland’s dedication to delivering safe, reliable, and affordable energy worldwide, reinforcing its long-term sustainability strategy.

Spark’s Take on TSE:NPI Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:NPI is a Outperform.

Northland Power’s overall score reflects its strong financial performance, attractive dividend yield, and positive earnings outlook. The company’s strategic growth initiatives and recent corporate developments further enhance its investment appeal, though high leverage and mixed technical indicators suggest a need for cautious optimism.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:NPI stock, click here.

Business Operations and Strategy
Northland Power Advances Sustainability Goals in 2024 Report
Positive
Apr 22, 2025

Northland Power’s 2024 Sustainability Report highlights significant progress in its sustainability goals, emphasizing its commitment to people, communities, and the planet. The report showcases achievements such as a 30% reduction in GHG emissions intensity since 2019, the generation of 11,046 GWh of electricity globally, and advancements in renewable projects under construction. These milestones reinforce Northland’s long-term sustainability strategy and its role in the global energy transition, providing safe, reliable, and affordable energy worldwide.

Spark’s Take on TSE:NPI Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:NPI is a Outperform.

Northland Power’s overall score reflects its strong financial performance and strategic project development, tempered by high leverage and mixed technical signals. The attractive dividend yield and positive developments in earnings call and corporate events support a favorable investment outlook, although caution is warranted due to potential regulatory impacts and technical momentum challenges.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:NPI stock, click here.

Business Operations and Strategy
Northland Power Highlights 2024 Sustainability Achievements
Positive
Apr 22, 2025

Northland Power released its 2024 Sustainability Report, showcasing significant progress in sustainability achievements. The report highlights milestones in their Hai Long, Baltic Power, and Oneida projects, and emphasizes their commitment to sustainable practices and global partnerships. In 2024, Northland generated 11,046 GWh of electricity globally, achieved a 30% reduction in GHG emissions intensity since 2019, and advanced 2.4 GW of renewable projects under construction. These efforts reinforce Northland’s long-term sustainability strategy and commitment to responsible energy solutions.

Spark’s Take on TSE:NPI Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:NPI is a Outperform.

Northland Power’s overall score reflects its strong financial performance and strategic project development, tempered by high leverage and mixed technical signals. The attractive dividend yield and positive developments in earnings call and corporate events support a favorable investment outlook, although caution is warranted due to potential regulatory impacts and technical momentum challenges.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:NPI stock, click here.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Northland Power Appoints Jeff Hart as New CFO
Positive
Apr 21, 2025

Northland Power has announced the appointment of Jeff Hart as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective May 1, 2025. Hart, who has extensive experience in financial leadership and capital markets from his previous roles at Husky Energy and Cenovus Energy, is expected to play a crucial role in advancing Northland’s financial growth and strategic objectives. The appointment reflects Northland’s commitment to strengthening its industry position and delivering long-term shareholder value. Additionally, Adam Beaumont, who served as Interim CFO, will transition to the role of Senior Vice President, Capital Markets, continuing to contribute to the company’s success.

Spark’s Take on TSE:NPI Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:NPI is a Outperform.

Northland Power shows a strong financial performance with solid revenue growth and improved profitability, although high leverage remains a concern. The attractive dividend yield and fair valuation enhance its investment appeal. Positive sentiment from the earnings call and recent corporate events further support a favorable outlook, despite some technical indicators suggesting caution in long-term momentum.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:NPI stock, click here.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Northland Power Announces Leadership Transition in Board Chair
Neutral
Apr 11, 2025

Northland Power announced a succession plan for its Board Chair, with John Brace stepping down after a long tenure and Ian Pearce poised to take over if elected at the upcoming AGM. This transition marks a significant leadership change as Northland continues its growth and innovation under the new leadership of Christine Healy as President and CEO, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to maintaining its position as a global leader in the energy sector.

Spark’s Take on TSE:NPI Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:NPI is a Outperform.

Northland Power shows a strong financial performance with solid revenue growth and improved profitability, although high leverage remains a concern. The attractive dividend yield and fair valuation enhance its investment appeal. Positive sentiment from the earnings call and recent corporate events further support a favorable outlook, despite some technical indicators suggesting caution in long-term momentum.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:NPI stock, click here.

Financial Disclosures
Northland Power to Release Q1 2025 Financial Results and Host Investor Call
Neutral
Apr 11, 2025

Northland Power announced it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 13, 2025, with an investor call scheduled for May 14, 2025. This announcement is part of Northland’s ongoing efforts to keep stakeholders informed about its financial performance and operational progress, reflecting its commitment to transparency and engagement with investors.

Spark’s Take on TSE:NPI Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:NPI is a Outperform.

Northland Power shows a strong financial performance with solid revenue growth and improved profitability, although high leverage remains a concern. The attractive dividend yield and fair valuation enhance its investment appeal. Positive sentiment from the earnings call and recent corporate events further support a favorable outlook, despite some technical indicators suggesting caution in long-term momentum.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:NPI stock, click here.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Northland Power Secures Financing for Alberta’s Largest Battery Storage Project
Positive
Apr 9, 2025

Northland Power has secured financing for its Jurassic Battery Energy Storage System project in Alberta, marking its second battery storage financing. The 80 MW, 2-hour battery storage system will be Alberta’s largest once completed and is expected to enhance the stability and reliability of the province’s energy grid. With a project cost of approximately $120 million, it is anticipated to contribute about $15 million of annual Adjusted EBITDA upon reaching commercial operation in late 2026. This project underscores Northland’s commitment to expanding its footprint in Canada and diversifying its asset base, highlighting the growth potential of its multi-technology approach.

Spark’s Take on TSE:NPI Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:NPI is a Outperform.

Northland Power scores well due to its robust financial performance, positive earnings outlook, and attractive dividend yield. The company’s strong project pipeline and strategic partnerships enhance its growth prospects, although high leverage and potential regulatory challenges require attention. The technical indicators support a generally positive momentum, albeit with some caution due to its proximity to long-term averages.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:NPI stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Northland Power Reports Strong Q4 2024 Results and Outlines 2025 Outlook
Positive
Feb 27, 2025

Northland Power reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, achieving the high end of its financial guidance. The company continues to advance its major construction projects, including Baltic Power, Hai Long, and Oneida, and has completed an upgrade to the Thorold natural gas facility. With a robust balance sheet and significant liquidity, Northland Power is well-positioned for growth. The company has issued its 2025 financial outlook, anticipating an increase in Adjusted EBITDA and changes to its Dividend Reinvestment Plan.

Financial Disclosures
Northland Power to Unveil Q4 2024 Financial Results and Host Investor Call
Neutral
Jan 27, 2025

Northland Power announced it will release its fourth quarter 2024 financial results on February 26, 2025, with an investor conference call scheduled for February 27, 2025. This announcement underscores Northland’s commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, potentially influencing investor confidence and market perceptions of the company’s performance and strategic direction in the renewable energy industry.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.