Lundin Gold (LUG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.75B
• Dividend Yield: 2.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 508.87K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 34.41%
• EPS Growth: 139.62%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,703
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 2.44
• Shares Outstanding: 240,441,790
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 522,940
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 508,865
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.07
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 9.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$44.58
• Price Target Upside: -8.75% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

Lundin Gold's strong financial performance, highlighted by impressive revenue growth, debt elimination, and robust cash flow generation, is the most significant factor driving its stock score. The positive sentiment from the earnings call further supports the company's strong positioning, despite some operational challenges in Ecuador. Technical analysis indicates a strong upward trend, while the fair valuation and attractive dividend yield add to the stock's appeal.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Realized gold price upside is anticipated to provide upside to Q1/25 earnings.

Operational Performance

Lundin Gold has demonstrated exceptional execution abilities by consistently beating targets through development, ramping up production, and mill throughput expansion at the Fruta del Norte mine.

Production Guidance

Production for 2024 exceeded full-year guidance, demonstrating strong operational performance with 502koz of gold produced compared to the guidance of 450-500koz.

Negative Factors

Cash Costs

Cash Costs and AISC came in higher than both ours and consensus expectations due to higher-than-anticipated sustaining capital accompanied by elevated metal prices.

Cost Guidance

Lundin Gold's 3-year guidance indicates higher costs than previously expected.

Valuation

The stock has outperformed peers with a 118% increase year-to-date, leaving insufficient return to the price target.

Lundin Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lundin Gold Inc. operates as a mining company in Canada. The company holds interests in 27 metallic mineral concessions and three construction material concessions covering an area of approximately 64,270 hectares located in Southeast Ecuador. It primary holds interests in the Fruta del Norte gold project comprising seven concessions covering an area of approximately 5,566 hectares located near the city of Loja in Ecuador. The company was formerly known as Fortress Minerals Corp. and changed its name to Lundin Gold Inc. in December 2014. Lundin Gold Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Lundin Gold generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of gold extracted from its Fruta del Norte mine. The company's revenue model involves mining gold ore, processing it to extract gold, and then selling the refined product to bullion banks, gold refiners, and other market participants. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold and by-products such as silver. Lundin Gold also benefits from strategic partnerships and agreements that facilitate the sale and distribution of its products. Additionally, fluctuations in gold market prices can significantly impact the company's earnings, as higher gold prices generally lead to increased revenue.

Lundin Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lundin Gold exhibits strong financial health with impressive revenue and profit growth, a robust balance sheet, and excellent cash flow management. The elimination of debt has strengthened its financial position, while strong margins and cash flow generation indicate sustainable operations. The company is well-positioned for future growth, although it should continue to focus on optimizing asset usage to maintain its competitive edge.

Income Statement

Lundin Gold has demonstrated robust revenue growth, increasing from $358 million in 2020 to $1.19 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin has improved significantly, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. Net income has grown impressively, indicating strong profitability. EBITDA margin is high, showcasing operational strength, and EBIT margin is solid, further emphasizing the company’s profitability trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is strong with a healthy equity base, as evidenced by a high equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved over the years, with total debt being eliminated by 2024, indicating prudent financial management. Return on equity has increased, showing efficient use of equity capital. However, the company should maintain caution in asset management to ensure ongoing stability.

Cash Flow

Lundin Gold's cash flow statements indicate strong operational cash flow generation, consistently covering free cash flow needs. Free cash flow growth has been positive, supporting reinvestment and shareholder returns. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests effective cash earnings conversion. The company has improved its cash reserves, enhancing financial flexibility.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.19B	902.52M	815.67M	733.33M	358.16M
	Gross Profit
703.39M	435.18M	369.75M	355.71M	172.39M
	EBIT
703.39M	435.18M	130.93M	355.71M	110.55M
	EBITDA
1.01B	439.42M	465.57M	428.71M	207.19M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
426.05M	179.46M	73.56M	221.43M	-47.16M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
349.20M	268.02M	363.40M	262.61M	79.59M
	Total Assets
1.53B	1.47B	1.67B	1.69B	1.51B
	Total Debt
0.00	216.62M	639.53M	712.94M	829.27M
	Net Debt
-349.20M	-51.41M	276.13M	450.33M	749.68M
	Total Liabilities
311.18M	512.40M	816.78M	870.64M	918.50M
	Stockholders Equity
1.22B	955.81M	852.08M	814.48M	586.86M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
662.39M	471.16M	372.13M	360.76M	54.88M
	Operating Cash Flow
662.39M	519.39M	426.14M	417.75M	113.64M
	Investing Cash Flow
-93.50M	-53.48M	-60.07M	-63.11M	-79.64M
	Financing Cash Flow
-487.49M	-561.23M	-264.10M	-171.43M	-27.77M

Lundin Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 48.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.16, above the 50-day MA of 41.36, and above the 200-day MA of 31.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LUG.

Lundin Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LUG	81 Outperform	$11.75B	20.03	39.23%	2.38%	34.41%	139.62%
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.43B	-3.06	-22.76%	3.59%	4.02%	-29.07%

Lundin Gold Corporate Events

Lundin Gold Reports Strong Q1 2025 Gold Production

Lundin Gold reported a strong start to 2025 with a first-quarter gold production of 117,313 ounces from its Fruta del Norte mine, marking an increase from the same period in 2024. The successful completion of the Plant Expansion Project and strategic mine resequencing contributed to higher production and improved mill head grade, positioning the company well for the year ahead. The company also benefited from rising gold prices, which positively impacted the average realized gold price for the quarter.

Spark’s Take on TSE:LUG Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:LUG is a Outperform.

Lundin Gold’s strong financial performance, marked by impressive revenue growth, robust balance sheet, and excellent cash flow management, significantly boosts its stock score. The technical indicators support a positive trend, although caution is advised due to potentially overbought conditions. The fair valuation, combined with an attractive dividend yield, adds to the stock’s appeal. Positivity from the earnings call further bolsters the score, despite some operational challenges in Ecuador. Overall, the company is well-positioned for future growth.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:LUG stock, click here.

Lundin Gold Announces Annual Shareholder Meeting for May 2025

Lundin Gold Inc. has announced its Annual Meeting of Shareholders scheduled for May 9, 2025, in Vancouver and online. The meeting will address several key issues, including financial statements, auditor reappointment, director elections, executive compensation, and amendments to the equity compensation plan. This meeting is crucial for stakeholders as it outlines the company’s strategic directions and governance practices, impacting its operational and financial future.

Lundin Gold Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights

Lundin Gold Inc. has updated its share capital and voting rights, announcing that it now has 240,725,793 common shares issued and outstanding as of March 31, 2025. This update follows the exercise of stock options and anti-dilution rights by its largest shareholder, impacting how shareholders calculate their interest under Swedish transparency rules.

Lundin Gold Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights

Lundin Gold Inc. announced an update on its share capital and voting rights following the exercise of stock options, resulting in 240,633,086 common shares issued and outstanding as of February 28, 2025. This update is significant for shareholders as it affects the calculation of their shareholding interests under Swedish transparency rules, impacting their disclosure obligations.

Lundin Gold Uncovers High-Grade Gold and Copper-Gold Potential at Ecuador Mine

Lundin Gold Inc. has reported significant drilling results at its Fruta del Norte gold mine in Ecuador, with high-grade gold discoveries at the FDN South deposit and promising early-stage results at both FDN East and the newly explored Trancaloma target. These findings suggest potential for resource expansion at FDN South, continuity of mineralization at FDN East, and new copper-gold mineralization at Trancaloma, highlighting the company’s continued exploration success and future growth potential.

Lundin Gold Achieves Record Production and Financial Success in 2024

Lundin Gold reported a record-breaking 2024 with production surpassing guidance at 502,029 ounces of gold and achieving significant financial metrics, including record revenues of $1,193 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $780 million. The company successfully became debt-free, increased its quarterly dividend, and highlighted the potential of its FDN project, anticipating continued strong cash flow and shareholder returns in 2025.

Lundin Gold Announces Record Growth in Mineral Reserves and Resources at Fruta del Norte

Lundin Gold Inc. has announced a significant increase in its Mineral Reserves and Resources at the Fruta del Norte (FDN) gold mine as of December 31, 2024. The company reported the highest ever published estimates for contained gold ounces at FDN, with Inferred Resources increasing by 59% to 2.36 million ounces and Measured and Indicated Resources rising to 7.06 million ounces. Proven and Probable Reserves also grew to 5.54 million ounces, despite mining depletion of 0.54 million ounces. The substantial growth is attributed to successful near-mine exploration, particularly at FDN South, and the company is optimistic about further resource expansion and exploration opportunities in 2025.

Lundin Gold Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights

Lundin Gold has updated its share capital and voting rights, reporting 240,281,498 common shares outstanding as of January 31, 2025, following the exercise of stock options. This update is significant for shareholders under Swedish transparency rules regarding major shareholdings, reflecting Lundin Gold’s ongoing commitment to regulatory compliance and transparency.