Kelt Exploration (KEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.20B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 457.88K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: -11.46%
• EPS Growth: -53.06%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 80
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Fossil Fuels
• EPS (TTM): 0.28
• Shares Outstanding: 197,547,330
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 501,994
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 457,883
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.79
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 5.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$9.40
• Price Target Upside: 48.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

Kelt Exploration's stock score reflects a mix of financial strengths and weaknesses. Strong operational efficiency and a solid balance sheet are offset by declining revenue and cash flow challenges. Positive technical indicators suggest potential short-term gains, but the high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns. The absence of earnings call insights and corporate events limits further analysis.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Kelt's 2025 guidance details slightly lower spending, higher-than-expected production growth, and lower costs, setting the stage for a productive, 'value-creating' year.

Production Growth

The company is expected to see among the highest production growth, potentially doubling its output.

Negative Factors

Cost Management

With higher production volumes, costs look to decrease across transportation, operating expenses, and general administrative costs.

Kelt Exploration Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kelt Exploration Ltd. is a Canadian oil and gas company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta. The company is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas, primarily operating in Western Canada. Kelt's core assets are located in resource-rich regions such as the Montney and Charlie Lake formations, where it focuses on optimizing hydrocarbon recovery through advanced drilling and completion techniques.

How the Company Makes Money

Kelt Exploration generates revenue primarily through the sale of produced crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company's revenue model is heavily dependent on the production volumes and commodity prices of these resources. Kelt's key revenue streams include the extraction and sale of hydrocarbons from its developed acreage, particularly in the Montney and Charlie Lake regions. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its operational capabilities and expand its resource base, contributing to its earnings. Additionally, Kelt actively manages its portfolio through the acquisition and divestiture of assets, optimizing its asset base to maximize shareholder value.

Kelt Exploration Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kelt Exploration shows a mixed financial picture. Moderate income statement performance with strong EBIT and EBITDA margins, but concerns arise from decreased revenue and negative free cash flow. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage, but cash flow issues need addressing for better financial stability.

Income Statement

Kelt Exploration demonstrates moderate performance in its income statement. The TTM gross profit margin is approximately 23.57%, and the net profit margin stands at 13.13%. However, revenue has decreased compared to the previous year by approximately 3.27%, indicating a contraction in sales. EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 17.45% and 49.25%, respectively, showcasing good operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.045, indicating conservative leverage. The return on equity is 5.30%, suggesting moderate returns for shareholders. With an equity ratio of 75.90%, Kelt Exploration shows high financial stability supported by a strong equity base.

Cash Flow

Kelt Exploration faces challenges in cash flow management. The free cash flow is negative in the TTM period, and the free cash flow growth rate is unfavorable compared to the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 4.03, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting concerns in capital expenditures and cash reserves.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Income Statement		Total Revenue
422.14M	436.41M	613.36M	316.76M	207.16M	394.36M
	Gross Profit
99.52M	141.51M	308.60M	121.85M	-348.07M	101.53M
	EBIT
73.66M	123.26M	244.04M	78.85M	-400.98M	27.78M
	EBITDA
207.93M	241.60M	330.29M	229.39M	-282.45M	188.58M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
55.40M	85.97M	158.76M	114.26M	-324.81M	6.57M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
6.46M	14.34M	125.00K	719.00K	31.57M	8.37M
	Total Assets
1.42B	1.26B	1.13B	913.50M	759.99M	1.61B
	Total Debt
247.27M	1.46M	12.35M	2.16M	1.46M	385.46M
	Net Debt
240.82M	-12.88M	12.22M	1.44M	-30.11M	377.09M
	Total Liabilities
529.73M	256.63M	226.68M	190.77M	156.30M	682.40M
	Stockholders Equity
893.80M	1.00B	901.42M	722.72M	603.68M	923.06M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-74.51M	630.00K	-11.56M	-62.65M	-92.83M	-158.84M
	Operating Cash Flow
223.56M	283.22M	306.02M	159.71M	59.28M	162.49M
	Investing Cash Flow
-306.83M	-265.49M	-328.94M	-191.54M	326.61M	-308.73M
	Financing Cash Flow
50.67M	-3.52M	22.33M	973.00K	-362.68M	148.17M

Kelt Exploration Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.32
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.37, below the 50-day MA of 6.83, and below the 200-day MA of 6.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:KEL.

Kelt Exploration Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PEY	73 Outperform	C$3.11B	10.23	11.55%	8.44%	-14.63%	-18.40%
BIR	71 Outperform	$1.38B	24.32	0.70%	8.30%	-8.89%	-82.18%
TOU	70 Outperform	C$24.32B	18.22	8.55%	2.04%	-8.29%	-30.52%
ARX	70 Outperform	$15.13B	13.57	14.67%	2.87%	-9.83%	-27.76%
KEL	64 Neutral	$1.20B	21.29	5.44%	―	-11.46%	-53.06%
VET	62 Neutral	$1.73B	―	-1.59%	4.56%	-1.72%	79.87%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$8.36B	5.47	-5.51%	7.41%	0.15%	-68.69%

Kelt Exploration Corporate Events

Kelt Exploration Announces 2025 Financial Guidance and Capital Budget

Kelt Exploration Ltd. has announced its financial and operating guidance for 2025, setting a capital expenditure budget of $328 million. The company anticipates generating $345 million in adjusted funds from operations, forecasting significant production growth in oil, natural gas liquids, and gas for the year. Despite a projected decline in oil prices, Kelt expects increased gas prices and improved financial metrics, including a substantial rise in combined production and a decrease in net debt, which suggests a strong operational outlook for the year.

Kelt Exploration Reports Decline in Financial Performance

Kelt Exploration Ltd. reported a decline in its financial performance for the three and nine months ending September 30, 2024, with notable decreases in petroleum and natural gas sales and net income. Despite these challenges, the company saw an increase in total assets and shareholders’ equity, reflecting its ongoing investments.