Kelt Exploration (KEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.16B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 483.88K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: -5.20%
• EPS Growth: -47.85%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 77
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 50
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 198,615,880
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 518,972
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 483,885
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.14
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 6.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $9.35
• Price Target Upside: 63.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

Kelt Exploration's strong equity position and cash flow generation are offset by recent profitability declines and a high P/E ratio, indicating overvaluation. The bearish technical indicators and high capital expenditures further weigh on the stock's overall attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Debt Management

Net debt/PDP value currently stands at a low 14% of PDP value.

Financial Performance

Quarterly cash flow highlighted a beat on estimates, which is encouraging given third-party plant delays.

Production Growth

The company should see among the highest production growth, possibly doubling its output.

Negative Factors

Value Loss

For every dollar spent, there was a loss of $0.52 in value, partly due to changes in reserve evaluators.

Kelt Exploration Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kelt Exploration Ltd. is a Canadian oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas resources. Founded in 2012 and headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Kelt operates primarily in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, focusing on areas with rich resource potential. The company's operations are concentrated on the Montney and Charlie Lake formations, where it employs advanced drilling and completion technologies to optimize production and recovery rates.

How the Company Makes Money

Kelt Exploration generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) extracted from its exploration and production activities. The company leverages its expertise in geological assessment and technological innovation to efficiently extract resources from its leased land holdings. Revenue streams for Kelt are influenced by commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiency. The company also engages in hedging activities to manage commodity price risks and stabilize cash flows. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other industry players can also play a role in optimizing operations and expanding market access, thereby contributing to the company's financial performance.

Kelt Exploration Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kelt Exploration shows strong equity stability and cash flow generation, but declining profitability and negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures are concerns. Effective management of operational efficiency and capital allocation is crucial.

Income Statement

Kelt Exploration has shown volatile revenue trends, with a decline in revenue in recent periods after a peak in 2022. The gross profit margin is relatively stable, but net profit margins have decreased significantly in the latest period. The absence of EBIT indicates reduced operational profitability, though the EBITDA margin remains high, suggesting strong operational cash flow generation.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong equity position with a high equity ratio. Debt levels are low, resulting in a favorable debt-to-equity ratio. However, the return on equity has decreased due to declining net income, indicating potential inefficiencies in generating returns on shareholder investments.

Cash Flow

Kelt Exploration experienced a significant negative free cash flow in the most recent period due to high capital expenditures. Operating cash flow remains strong compared to net income, suggesting good cash generation capability, but the negative free cash flow poses a risk to cash reserves if it persists.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
468.43M	436.41M	613.36M	316.76M	207.16M
	Gross Profit
134.48M	141.51M	308.60M	121.85M	-348.07M
	EBIT
0.00	123.26M	244.04M	78.85M	-400.98M
	EBITDA
208.32M	241.60M	330.29M	229.39M	-282.45M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
45.42M	85.97M	158.76M	114.26M	-324.81M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
228.00K	14.34M	125.00K	719.00K	31.57M
	Total Assets
1.45B	1.26B	1.13B	913.50M	759.99M
	Total Debt
111.07M	1.46M	12.35M	2.16M	1.46M
	Net Debt
110.84M	-12.88M	12.22M	1.44M	-30.11M
	Total Liabilities
387.68M	256.63M	226.68M	190.77M	156.30M
	Stockholders Equity
1.06B	1.00B	901.42M	722.72M	603.68M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-124.00M	630.00K	-11.56M	-62.65M	-92.83M
	Operating Cash Flow
209.15M	283.22M	306.02M	159.71M	59.28M
	Investing Cash Flow
-336.57M	-265.49M	-328.94M	-191.54M	326.61M
	Financing Cash Flow
113.31M	-3.52M	22.33M	973.00K	-362.68M

Kelt Exploration Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.72
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.99, below the 50-day MA of 6.25, and below the 200-day MA of 6.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:KEL.

Kelt Exploration Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PEY	74 Outperform	C$3.58B	12.52	10.37%	7.35%	-9.52%	-11.68%
TOU	73 Outperform	C$22.26B	16.80	8.55%	2.43%	-8.29%	-30.52%
ARX	71 Outperform	$15.88B	14.35	14.67%	2.63%	-9.83%	-27.76%
VET	63 Neutral	$1.40B	―	-1.59%	5.48%	-1.72%	79.87%
BIR	62 Neutral	$1.65B	29.16	2.51%	5.43%	-26.02%	464.95%
KEL	57 Neutral	$1.16B	25.12	4.42%	―	-5.20%	-47.85%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$7.03B	3.43	-6.29%	6.02%	-0.15%	-51.34%

Kelt Exploration Corporate Events

Kelt Exploration Reports Decline in 2024 Financial Results Amid Increased Capital Expenditure

Kelt Exploration Ltd. reported a decrease in both quarterly and annual financial results for the year ended December 31, 2024, with a notable decline in net income and comprehensive income by 42% and 47% respectively. Despite the financial downturn, the company increased its capital expenditures by 55% in the fourth quarter, indicating a strategic focus on future growth and asset development.

Kelt Exploration Reports Strong 2024 Production and Announces New Reserves Evaluator

Kelt Exploration Ltd. reported its 2024 production volumes, achieving an average production of 33,115 BOE per day, with a year-end exit rate of 38,369 BOE per day. The company anticipates further production growth in 2025 with the addition of new gas processing capacities. Additionally, Kelt has appointed McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. as its new independent reserves evaluator, aligning with industry standards and enhancing its evaluation and transaction capabilities.