First Quantum Minerals (FM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.97B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.24M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.34
• Revenue Growth: -24.38%
• EPS Growth: 99.06%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Mining
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 834,206,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,372,393
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,243,199
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.09
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 4.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$21.28
• Price Target Upside: 25.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

First Quantum Minerals exhibits mixed financial performance with declining revenue but improved leverage and cash flow. Technical indicators suggest downward momentum, while valuation metrics are weak with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield. The earnings call highlighted operational strengths but also noted significant challenges. Recent corporate events indicate strategic financial maneuvers to enhance financial flexibility and debt management.

Positive Factors

Operational Performance

Reported copper production of 112kt in 4Q significantly beat expectations and prior guidance ranges due to higher ore grades.

Negative Factors

Cost Management

Copper C1 unit cost guidance for 2025 and 2026 has been increased, reflecting higher costs and sustaining capital expenditures.

Future Outlook

Production guidance has been trimmed for both Zambian mines for future years, indicating a more conservative outlook.

First Quantum Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. engages in the production, exploration and development of copper, nickel, gold, zinc and acid, and related activities. It operates through the following segments: Kansanshi, Sentinel, Cobre Panama, Las Cruces, Guelb Moghrein, Çayeli, Pyhäsalmi, Ravensthorpe, and Corporate and Other. The Corporate and Other segment deals with the evaluation and acquisition of new mineral properties, regulatory reporting, treasury and finance, and corporate administration. The company was founded by Philip K.R. Pascall, Geoffrey Clive Newall, and Martin R. Rowley on December 21, 1983 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

First Quantum Minerals generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of copper, which is its core product. The company's operating mines produce copper concentrate and cathodes, which are sold to various industrial sectors around the world, including electronics, construction, and automotive industries. Revenue is also derived from the production and sale of other base metals such as nickel and gold. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with smelters and refiners, which ensure consistent demand for its products. Additionally, First Quantum Minerals invests in exploration and development projects to expand its resource base and increase production capacity, thereby enhancing its revenue potential. Fluctuations in global commodity prices and exchange rates can significantly impact the company's earnings.

First Quantum Minerals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

First Quantum Minerals shows mixed financial performance with declining revenue and profitability margins, yet improved leverage and cash flow generation. The company faces operational challenges but maintains a stable financial position. Ongoing attention to cost management and revenue generation is essential to enhance profitability and shareholder returns.

Income Statement

The company's revenue has seen a significant decline from $7.63 billion in 2022 to $4.80 billion in 2024, reflecting a negative growth trajectory. The gross profit margin for 2024 is approximately 28.1%, showing a decrease from previous years, indicating potential cost pressures or reduced pricing power. The net profit margin has improved to a positive 0.04% in 2024 from negative margins in the previous year, suggesting some recovery in profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, reflecting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio has decreased from 0.75 in 2022 to 0.56 in 2024, showing improved leverage management. Return on equity (ROE) has substantially declined, indicating reduced shareholder returns. The equity ratio stands at approximately 47.6%, demonstrating a stable financial structure with a balanced approach to equity and liabilities.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has increased from $127 million in 2023 to $365 million in 2024, indicating improved cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is high due to low net income, showing reliance on operational cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio reflects significant improvement, but overall cash flow management shows potential volatility.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.80B	6.46B	7.63B	7.21B	5.20B
	Gross Profit
1.35B	1.29B	2.20B	2.56B	1.08B
	EBIT
810.00M	78.00M	2.24B	2.60B	991.00M
	EBITDA
1.59B	1.28B	3.28B	3.73B	1.98B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
2.00M	-954.00M	1.03B	832.00M	-224.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
843.00M	1.16B	1.69B	1.86B	950.00M
	Total Assets
24.11B	23.76B	25.08B	25.27B	24.24B
	Total Debt
6.37B	7.58B	7.38B	7.91B	8.36B
	Net Debt
5.53B	6.42B	5.69B	6.05B	7.41B
	Total Liabilities
12.21B	12.98B	12.84B	13.78B	14.20B
	Stockholders Equity
11.47B	10.25B	10.90B	10.02B	8.87B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
365.00M	127.00M	1.17B	1.89B	1.00B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.65B	1.43B	2.33B	2.88B	1.61B
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.29B	-1.38B	-1.17B	-1.10B	-673.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-501.00M	-776.00M	-1.33B	-841.00M	-543.00M

First Quantum Minerals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 16.89
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.59, below the 50-day MA of 18.81, and below the 200-day MA of 18.00, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:FM.

First Quantum Minerals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FM	61 Neutral	$14.97B	―	0.02%	―	-24.38%	99.06%
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.64B	-4.00	-31.55%	3.33%	2.93%	-29.90%

First Quantum Minerals Corporate Events

First Quantum Minerals Upsizes Senior Notes Offering to $1 Billion

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. has announced the successful pricing and upsizing of its senior notes offering, increasing the total from $750 million to $1,000 million with an 8.000% interest rate. The proceeds will be used to repay part of its revolving credit facility, fund a tender offer for existing senior notes, and cover related transaction costs, reflecting strategic financial management to optimize its capital structure.

First Quantum Minerals Upsizes Tender Offer for Senior Notes

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. announced an increase in its cash tender offer for its outstanding 6.875% senior notes due 2027, raising the maximum amount from $500 million to $750 million. This strategic financial maneuver follows the successful pricing and upsizing of a concurrent offering of $1 billion in senior notes due 2033, aimed at enhancing the company’s financial flexibility and addressing existing debt obligations. The move could impact stakeholders by potentially strengthening First Quantum’s financial position and funding its operations, though it remains subject to certain conditions and potential waivers.

First Quantum Minerals Launches $750 Million Senior Notes Offering

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. has announced a $750 million offering of senior unsecured notes, with plans to use the proceeds to repay part of its revolving credit facility and fund a partial tender offer for its existing senior notes. This strategic financial move is expected to strengthen the company’s financial flexibility, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and offering reassurance to stakeholders regarding its debt management strategy.

First Quantum Minerals Launches $500 Million Cash Tender Offer for Senior Notes

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. has initiated a cash tender offer to purchase its outstanding 6.875% Senior Notes due 2027, with a maximum aggregate principal amount of up to $500 million. This move is part of the company’s financial strategy to manage its debt and optimize its capital structure, potentially improving its financial flexibility and reducing interest costs.

First Quantum Minerals Announces Strategic Operational Update

First Quantum Minerals has announced a significant update regarding its operational strategies, which could potentially influence its market position and stakeholder interests. The announcement highlights changes that are expected to impact the company’s overall operations, though specific details and implications are not provided.

First Quantum Minerals Reports Strong 2024 Results and Strategic Plans for 2025-2027

First Quantum Minerals has announced its preliminary production results for 2024, showcasing a robust performance with copper production surpassing expectations. The company has also provided guidance for 2025 to 2027, indicating a slight reduction in copper production forecasts due to conservative approaches in Zambia and operational adjustments at the Sentinel mine. Notably, the ongoing Cobre Panamá mine situation is under scrutiny, with production halted and awaiting government approvals for environmental audits, which could impact future operations.

First Quantum to Announce Year-End 2024 Results and Future Guidance

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. announced that it will release its fourth quarter and year-end 2024 financial and operating results on February 11, 2025, with a conference call scheduled for the following day. The company will also provide its preliminary production results and three-year guidance on January 15, 2025, highlighting its continued efforts to maintain transparency and engage stakeholders effectively.