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Aya Gold & Silver (TSE:AYA)
TSX:AYA
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Aya Gold & Silver
(TSX:AYA)
61Neutral
Positive Factors
Future Production Growth
The ongoing expansion of Aya's Zgounder mine is expected to substantially increase silver production beginning in 2025.
Production Improvements
In January, Zgounder displayed strong improvements with silver production of 384koz as the plant is now operating above nameplate capacity.
Negative Factors
Current Production Shortfall
Q4 silver production of 491koz was below the 593koz estimate due to slightly lower throughput and grade.
Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
C$1.32B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)798.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)120.2
Beta (1Y)1.61
Revenue Growth-8.49%
EPS Growth109.18%
CountryCA
Employees405
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength63
IndustryMining
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding130,770,050
10 Day Avg. Volume819,742
30 Day Avg. Volume798,549
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.10
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)24.60
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-42.40
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$22.35Price Target Upside120.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
Aya Gold & Silver Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAya Gold & Silver Inc is engaged in acquisition, exploration, evaluation, and development of mining properties. The company and its subsidiaries are at the development stage for its Zgounder project and exploration and evaluation stage for projects in Morocco. Its other project includes Boumadine; Amizmiz; Azegour and others.
How the Company Makes MoneyAya Gold & Silver generates revenue primarily through the extraction, processing, and sale of gold and silver. The company owns and operates mining sites where it employs modern mining techniques to efficiently extract these precious metals from the earth. Once extracted, the metals are processed and refined to meet industry standards and are then sold to various buyers, including industrial users and investors. Additionally, Aya Gold & Silver may form strategic partnerships with other mining firms or local governments to enhance its operational capacity and access new resources, contributing to its revenue growth. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as global commodity prices, production costs, and the successful expansion of its mining operations.
Aya Gold & Silver Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Aya Gold & Silver shows financial resilience with a strong balance sheet, low leverage, and improved net profitability. However, challenges persist with declining profit margins, operational inefficiencies, and negative cash flow ratios, indicating concerns in revenue growth and cash flow management.Income Statement
Aya Gold & Silver showed a mixed performance in its TTM income statement. The gross profit margin decreased to 29.18% from 36.89% in the previous year, indicating a decline in cost efficiency. The net profit margin improved significantly to 19.16%, driven by higher net income despite a decrease in revenue. The TTM revenue fell by 4.67% compared to the previous year, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales growth. The negative EBIT margin of -7.05% suggests operational inefficiencies, though the EBITDA margin remains positive at 14.56%, indicating the company still benefits from non-operating income or adjustments.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet remains robust with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35, reflecting strong equity backing relative to debt. The return on equity improved significantly to 2.78%, albeit still low, showing better returns for shareholders. The equity ratio at 64.64% indicates a solid capital structure with a high proportion of assets financed by equity, suggesting stability and lower financial risk.78
Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals challenges, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth, indicating increased capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow issues from core operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, suggesting that operational profits are not translating into free cash flow, potentially impacting future investments.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 40.85M | 42.85M | 38.24M | 34.30M | 13.82M | 6.08M | Gross Profit |
| 11.92M | 15.81M | 10.28M | 16.01M | 4.04M | 1.31M | EBIT |
| -2.88M | 4.93M | 2.65M | 5.88M | -1.88M | 739.31K | EBITDA |
| 5.95M | 14.29M | 7.93M | 8.54M | 330.67K | 2.05M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 7.83M | 5.50M | 1.40M | 1.27M | -1.78M | -576.51K |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 19.02M | 49.83M | 39.36M | 81.67M | 30.53M | 16.62M | Total Assets |
| 46.36M | 333.06M | 156.80M | 161.26M | 72.08M | 48.16M | Total Debt |
| 72.02K | 58.79M | 287.00K | 425.88K | 316.33K | 77.97K | Net Debt |
| -18.95M | 8.96M | -39.07M | -81.24M | -30.22M | -16.54M | Total Liabilities |
| 7.13M | 107.92M | 26.50M | 21.26M | 10.15M | 7.28M | Stockholders Equity |
| 39.24M | 220.72M | 125.72M | 132.95M | 61.03M | 40.49M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -113.80M | -106.25M | -33.67M | -2.74M | -2.66M | -2.55M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -5.30M | 21.19M | 9.65M | 17.54M | 1.28M | 3.57M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -106.26M | -145.44M | -48.46M | -23.59M | -6.48M | -6.13M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 115.57M | 133.35M | 440.60K | 57.91M | 18.29M | -602.32K |
Aya Gold & Silver Technical Analysis
Neutral
10.13
Price Trends
11.66
Positive
13.16
Negative
14.15
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Positive
49.92
Neutral
23.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AYA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.82, below the 50-day MA of 11.66, and below the 200-day MA of 14.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:AYA.
Aya Gold & Silver Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (46)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
TSE:AYA
Aya Gold & Silver
11.72
1.16
10.98%
EXK
Endeavour Silver
4.52
2.38
111.21%
MAG
MAG Silver
15.22
6.01
65.26%
SVM
Silvercorp Metals
3.87
1.11
40.22%
TSE:BHS
Bayhorse Silver
0.04
-0.02
-33.33%
ISVLF
IMPACT Silver
0.14
0.00
0.00%
Aya Gold & Silver Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Nov 14, 2024 | % Change Since: -31.32% | Next Earnings Date: Mar 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a transitional period for Aya, with significant progress in mine expansion and exploration, alongside corporate achievements in financing and ESG. However, operational challenges in production and costs, coupled with a small net loss, balance the outlook.Highlights
Zgounder Mine Expansion Progress
The Zgounder mine expansion is 99% completed and is on budget. The stockpile has reached 347,000 tons of ore, and they are targeting commercial production in late Q4 2024.
Successful Spinout and Financing
Aya completed a spinout to better value their gold assets, culminating in a financing round that raised $15 million, showing strong investor confidence.
Exploration Success
High-grade mineralization confirmed at Zgounder with significant drill results, including 1,000 grams per ton over 13 meters. Boumadine project expanded to a 5.4-kilometer trend.
ISO 9001 Certification
Aya achieved ISO 9001 certification, indicating high standards in management processes across the mine site.
Strong ESG Performance
Aya met all ESG requirements for their loan and showed a 68% increase in students opting for science programs through their educational initiatives.
Lowlights
Production and Grade Challenges
Q3 2024 saw production below budget at 355,927 ounces due to delayed stope development and lower grade material, impacting overall output.
Increased Cash Cost
Adjusted cash cost was $19.93, with total cash cost at $23.47 per ounce, inflated by nonrecurring expenses associated with outsourced stope development.
Net Loss for the Period
Aya reported a net loss of $300,000 for Q3 2024, primarily due to lower production and increased costs.
Delayed Commissioning
Commissioning of the new plant was delayed slightly due to issues with the ball mill's lubrication system, although now resolved.
Company Guidance
In the Q3 2024 earnings call for Aya Gold & Silver, the company provided detailed guidance on several operational metrics. The Zgounder mine's expansion is 99% complete, with a stockpile of 347,000 tons of ore ready for commissioning, targeting commercial production by late Q4 2024. The quarter saw silver production of 355,927 ounces, which was below budget due to the development of new stopes. However, production is expected to improve in Q4 as these stopes become operational. The company generated $11 million in revenue at an average realized selling price of $27 per ounce, with a reported net loss of $300,000. The adjusted cash cost stood at $19.93 per ounce, while the total cash cost was $23.47, inclusive of nonrecurring expenses related to stope development. For the year 2024, guidance has been revised to between 1.6 million and 1.8 million ounces. Additionally, the company reported progress in its exploration program, with significant drilling activities and promising mineralization results. The spinout of gold assets into MX2 has been successful, raising $15 million in financing, with Aya holding a 42% ownership stake.Aya Gold & Silver Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Exceeds Milling Capacity at Zgounder Mine
Positive
Jan 23, 2025
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has surpassed the nameplate milling capacity at its newly expanded Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. The new processing plant, which began operations in November 2024 and achieved commercial production by December, processed 65,990 tonnes of ore over a 30-day period, exceeding its intended capacity. The integration of the flotation plant slurry into the leaching circuit has improved silver recovery rates and increased the value of the silver produced. The company aims to stabilize its processing rate above 3,000 tonnes per day, showcasing rapid ramp-up performance and setting the stage for strong production in 2025.
Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Announces Promising 2024 Exploration Results in Morocco
Positive
Jan 21, 2025
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has reported significant progress in its 2024 exploration program at the Zgounder Silver Mine and Boumadine Project in Morocco. The Zgounder Mine drilling revealed notable silver mineralization at depth, with multiple high-grade silver intercepts, indicating potential expansion of the open pit and regional exploration success. At the Boumadine Project, the exploration extended the main mineralized trends, with intersections showing substantial silver equivalent grades, indicating promising prospects for further mineral resource development in the region.
Aya Gold & Silver Reports High-Grade Silver Findings at Zgounder Mine
Jan 7, 2025
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has announced significant high-grade silver drill results from its exploration efforts at the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. These results, especially from key drill holes, indicate strong continuity of silver mineralization, suggesting a potential increase in high-grade silver ounces and supporting plans to expand open-pit operations in the near future. The findings underscore opportunities for resource expansion, potentially enhancing the company’s position in the silver mining sector.
Aya Gold & Silver Achieves First Silver Pour Milestone
Dec 2, 2024
Aya Gold & Silver has successfully completed the first silver pour from its expanded Zgounder Mine in Morocco, marking a critical step towards commercial production. The company achieved a processing rate of 2,000 tonnes per day shortly after the mill’s initial ore processing, with recovery rates exceeding 80% and expected to improve. This milestone positions Aya as a leading, pure-play silver producer as it continues to optimize operations.
Aya Gold & Silver Unveils Promising Drill Results
Nov 19, 2024
Aya Gold & Silver has announced impressive high-grade silver drill results from its exploration at the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, showcasing significant silver concentrations in multiple zones. This exploration underscores the potential for increased silver yields, exciting news for stakeholders and investors in the mining sector.
Aya Gold & Silver’s Strategic Moves and Expansion Progress
Nov 14, 2024
Aya Gold & Silver reports significant progress in its Zgounder Mine expansion, with nearly complete construction and a strong financial position despite a slight revenue decrease in Q3 2024. The company is also focusing on exploration programs and the strategic spinout of gold properties, aiming to capitalize on new opportunities and enhance its portfolio in the current bull market.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.