Aris Mining (ARIS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.29B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 782.63K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.50
• Revenue Growth: 15.91%
• EPS Growth: 126.74%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 2,081
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Other Precious Metals
• EPS (TTM): 0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 171,900,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,008,252
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 782,631
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 417.92
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 3.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 349.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$10.42
• Price Target Upside: 38.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

Aris Mining shows strengths in revenue growth, net profit margin improvements, and bullish technical indicators. However, concerns about declining gross profit margins, negative free cash flow, and a relatively high valuation temper the outlook. The positive sentiment from the recent earnings call supports the company's strategic growth, but increased expansion costs and higher realized gold costs present challenges.

Positive Factors

Expansion Projects

The Segovia expansion is on track for completion and expected to ramp up, significantly increasing production levels.

Financial Flexibility

Aris successfully priced senior notes providing additional financial flexibility and received a milestone payment, enhancing its financial position.

Valuation

Aris is trading at 0.14x NAV vs. junior producer peers at 0.60x, indicating an inexpensive valuation.

Negative Factors

Environmental Challenges

The resolution allows the Ministry of Environment to evaluate water resources in the area and temporarily suspend the issuance of environmental licenses for two years.

Project Delays

The Colombian Ministry of Environment has completed the public consultation process in respect to establishing a Temporary Reserve Area where the Soto Norte Project is located, which may delay the start of construction for Soto Norte to 2029.

Aris Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aris Mining Corporation together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and silver properties primarily in Colombia. The company holds interests in the Segovia operations comprising the El Silencio, Providencia, and Sandra K underground mines located in Colombia. It also owns interest in the Zancudo project located in the Titiribí mining district of Antioquia. In addition, the company holds interests in the Marmato project in Colombia; Juby project located in Ontario, Canada; and Toroparu project in the western Guyana gold district. The company was formerly known as Gran Colombia Gold Corp. and changed its name to GCM Mining Corp. in November 2021. The company was formerly known as GCM Mining Corp. and changed its name to Aris Mining Corporation on September 26, 2022. Aris Mining Corporation is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Aris Mining makes money through the extraction and sale of gold and other precious metals from its mining operations. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the production volume and market prices of these commodities. Key revenue streams include the sale of refined gold and by-products extracted during the mining process. Aris Mining may also engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other mining companies to enhance its operational capabilities and market reach. Factors such as market demand for gold, operational efficiency, and cost management significantly contribute to the company's earnings.

Aris Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aris Mining shows revenue growth and operational efficiency, but profitability is a concern due to recent net losses. The balance sheet is stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, but equity returns need improvement. Cash flow management is challenged by high capital expenditures and negative free cash flow.

Income Statement

Aris Mining's revenue has shown a consistent upward trend with a notable TTM revenue growth rate of 8.23%. However, the company faces challenges in profitability as indicated by a negative net income in the TTM. The gross profit margin is relatively stable at 29.76% in the TTM, but the negative net profit margin highlights potential cost management issues. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain solid at 21.53% and 26.15%, respectively, suggesting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial structure. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.46, indicating a balanced leverage position. The return on equity is negative in the TTM due to the net loss, but the equity ratio is strong at 44.23%, showcasing a solid asset base. Overall, the balance sheet shows stability with potential for improvement in equity returns.

Cash Flow

Aris Mining's cash flow statement presents challenges with negative free cash flow growth and a declining free cash flow to net income ratio. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to the net loss, indicating cash generation issues relative to earnings. Capital expenditures are high, impacting free cash flow, which suggests a need for better cash management strategies.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Income Statement		Total Revenue
484.51M	447.67M	399.96M	382.61M	390.92M	326.48M
	Gross Profit
144.21M	185.91M	171.95M	170.05M	192.20M	136.92M
	EBIT
104.31M	108.83M	124.66M	138.40M	154.94M	106.21M
	EBITDA
126.70M	164.41M	119.55M	168.85M	160.76M	138.58M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-985.00K	11.42M	622.00K	186.23M	-27.57M	-131.16M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
35.65M	194.62M	299.46M	323.56M	122.51M	84.24M
	Total Assets
449.85M	1.35B	1.24B	998.38M	650.57M	359.42M
	Total Debt
74.10M	382.93M	436.06M	318.07M	145.15M	92.27M
	Net Debt
38.46M	188.30M	136.60M	-5.49M	22.64M	8.03M
	Total Liabilities
204.18M	728.22M	740.75M	519.86M	454.34M	241.77M
	Stockholders Equity
245.68M	624.65M	501.38M	478.53M	153.71M	117.65M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-80.07M	-9.02M	-38.05M	17.09M	73.58M	60.61M
	Operating Cash Flow
83.42M	104.70M	76.95M	80.55M	136.38M	103.28M
	Investing Cash Flow
-306.96M	-180.28M	-54.58M	-229.72M	-72.31M	-51.61M
	Financing Cash Flow
-3.69M	-33.33M	-39.32M	359.67M	-23.61M	-2.97M

Aris Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.52
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ARIS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.75, above the 50-day MA of 6.14, and above the 200-day MA of 5.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.36 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ARIS.

Aris Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
K	80 Outperform	$24.77B	19.03	14.66%	0.84%	23.38%	131.87%
ELD	79 Outperform	$5.52B	13.90	8.12%	―	33.06%	177.69%
NGD	73 Outperform	$3.92B	28.94	11.14%	―	18.32%	―
ARIS	68 Neutral	C$1.29B	36.65	3.48%	―	15.91%	126.74%
SSL	68 Neutral	$3.23B	167.17	1.00%	0.71%	-0.35%	-65.11%
BTO	66 Neutral	$5.90B	―	-18.54%	4.24%	-0.18%	-2195.85%
Sector *	48 Neutral	$1.92B	-1.99	-22.85%	3.95%	0.94%	-27.31%

Aris Mining Corporate Events

Aris Mining Achieves 8% Growth in Q1 2025 Gold Production

Aris Mining reported an 8% year-over-year increase in gold production for Q1 2025, totaling 54,763 ounces from its Segovia and Marmato operations. The company anticipates further production growth with the expansion of the Segovia processing facility, set to be commissioned in Q2 2025. Aris Mining’s full-year production guidance for 2025 is between 230,000 to 275,000 ounces, reflecting strong operational momentum and strategic growth initiatives.

Spark’s Take on TSE:ARIS Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:ARIS is a Outperform.

Aris Mining exhibits strong financial performance with notable revenue growth and strategic expansion plans. However, concerns about free cash flow and higher valuation metrics slightly temper the positive outlook. The upward technical momentum and positive earnings call sentiment support a favorable stock outlook, despite some operational and environmental challenges.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:ARIS stock, click here.

Aris Mining Announces Record Q4 2024 Results and Expansion Plans

Aris Mining reported record financial results for Q4 2024, with the highest quarterly gold production of 57,364 ounces and a substantial increase in EBITDA and net income. The company is expanding its Marmato project by 25%, aiming for a production ramp-up in 2026, and is on track to commission an expanded processing facility at Segovia in Q2 2025, which is expected to significantly boost future production.

Aris Mining Responds to Colombian Environmental Resolution

Aris Mining announced that the Colombian Ministry of Environment has established a Temporary Reserve Area in the Santurbán region, affecting the Soto Norte Project by suspending environmental licenses for two years. This resolution does not impact Aris Mining’s other operations. The company is advancing a smaller-scale version of the Soto Norte Project, aligning with environmental goals and supporting local miners, with development planned after expansions of other mines.

Aris Mining Achieves 2024 Production Goals and Sets Ambitious 2025 Outlook

Aris Mining Corporation reported achieving its 2024 gold production guidance with a total output of 210,955 ounces, primarily from its Segovia and Marmato operations. Looking ahead, the company anticipates increased production in 2025 due to expansion projects, aiming for an output between 230,000 and 275,000 ounces. With a cash reserve of US$253 million, Aris Mining is well-positioned to fund these projects and expects significant growth in production capacity and strategic advancements in key projects.