Tempur Sealy (TPX) Risk Analysis

We acquire raw materials and components from a number of suppliers with manufacturing locations around the world. If we were unable to obtain raw materials and components from these suppliers for any reason, we would have to find replacement suppliers. Any substitute arrangements for raw materials and components might not be on terms as favorable to us. We maintain relatively small supplies of our raw materials and components at our manufacturing facilities, and any disruption in the shipment of supplies could interrupt production of our products, which in turn could result in a decrease of our sales or could cause an increase in our cost of sales, either of which could decrease our liquidity and profitability. If a key supplier for an applicable component failed to supply components in the amount we require, this could significantly interrupt production of our products and increase our production costs in the near term. We have experienced and may continue to experience disruptions for a variety of reasons, including disruptions in international trade routes, changes in international trade duties and other aspects of international trade policy, labor shortages, natural disasters or climate-change related events (including severe weather events), pandemics and political events. If we are not able to successfully mitigate such supply chain risks, we could experience disruptions in production or increased costs, which may result in a decrease in our gross margin or reduced sales, and have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.

The bedding industry is subject to volatility in the price of petroleum-based and steel products, which affects the cost of polyurethane foam, polyester and steel innerspring component parts. The price and availability of these raw materials are subject to market conditions affecting supply and demand. Given the significance of the cost of these materials to our products, volatility in the prices of the underlying commodities has and will significantly affect profitability. The global economy continues to experience high rates of inflation, and inflationary pressure and price uncertainty may continue in 2024. We have experienced, and may continue to experience, volatility and increases in the price of certain of these raw materials as a result of global market and supply chain disruptions and the broader inflationary environment related to the ongoing macroeconomic conditions. Interest rates remain relatively high and may continue to remain at such levels. To the extent we are unable to absorb higher costs, or pass any such higher costs to our customers, our gross margin could be negatively affected, which could result in a decrease in our liquidity and profitability. In addition, monetary policies to counter inflation could negatively affect our borrowing costs and those of our customers and suppliers, as well as exchange rates and other macroeconomic factors. Geopolitical developments, such as trade wars, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Hamas conflict and wider Middle East developments (including disruptions to the Red Sea passage or such conflicts spreading further in the relevant regions), have adversely impacted and could continue to adversely impact, among other things, our raw material, energy and transportation costs, certain of our suppliers, distributors, customers and local markets, global and local macroeconomic conditions, and cause further supply chain disruptions (including by delaying the delivery times of raw materials needed for our business or our products to customers).

We are a global company, selling our products in approximately 100 countries worldwide. We generated approximately 27.7% of our net sales outside of the U.S. in the year ended December 31, 2023. We operate through multiple wholly owned subsidiaries and we also participate in international license and joint venture arrangements with independent third parties. Our international operations are subject to the customary risks of operating in an international environment, including complying with U.S. laws affecting operations outside of the U.S. such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act; complying with foreign laws and regulations, including disparate anti-corruption laws and regulations; and the potential imposition of trade or foreign exchange restrictions, tariffs and other tax increases, inflation, unstable political situations, labor issues and geopolitical conflicts (including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Hamas conflict and wider Middle East developments). We are also limited in our ability to independently expand in certain international markets where we have granted licenses to manufacture and sell Sealy bedding products. Fluctuations in the rate of exchange between currencies in which we do business may affect our financial condition or results of operations. Additionally, changes in international trade duties and other aspects of international trade policy, both in the U.S. and abroad, could materially impact our business.

Climate-related events, such as an increase in frequency and severity of storms, floods, wildfires, droughts, hurricanes, freezing conditions and other natural disasters, may have a long-term impact on our business, financial condition and results of operations. For example, such climate-related events could result in, among other things, physical damage to and complete or partial closure of one or more of our facilities, temporary or long-term disruption in the supply of products, increased insurance costs or loss of coverage, legal liability and reputational harm. While we seek to mitigate our business risks associated with climate events, we recognize that there are inherent climate-related risks regardless of where we conduct our business. Current or future insurance arrangements may not provide protection for costs that may arise from such events, particularly if such events are catastrophic in nature or occur in combination. Further, the long-term effects of climate change on general economic conditions and the mattress and pillow industries in particular are unclear, and changes in the supply, demand or available sources of energy and the regulatory and other costs associated with energy production and other impacts of climate-related events may affect the availability or cost of goods and services, including natural resources and raw materials, necessary to run our business. While we continue to focus on strategies and systems to address the long-term risks posed by climate change, such as reducing our greenhouse gas emissions and packaging waste, there can be no assurance that such strategies and systems will adequately protect against such risks. Any disruption in our operations or additional expenses caused by the long-term effects of climate change could have a material adverse effect on our operations.

Approximately 27.7% of our net sales were generated outside of the U.S. in 2023. We conduct our business in a wide variety of currencies and are therefore subject to market risk relating to changes in foreign exchange rates. If the U.S. dollar strengthens relative to the Euro or other foreign currencies where we have operations, for example, there will be a negative impact on our operating results upon translation of those foreign operating results into the U.S. dollar. In 2023, foreign currency exchange rate changes positively impacted our net income by approximately 1.5% and positively impacted adjusted EBITDA, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, by approximately 0.8%. Changes in foreign currency exchange rates could have an adverse impact on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. Except for the use of foreign exchange forwards contracts described immediately below, we do not hedge the translation of foreign currency operating results into the U.S. dollar. We use foreign exchange forward contracts to manage a portion of the exposure to the risk of the eventual net cash inflows and outflows resulting from foreign currency denominated transactions among certain subsidiaries. These hedging transactions may not succeed or may be only partially successful in managing our foreign currency exchange rate risk. Refer to "Management's Discussion and Analysis" included in Part II, ITEM 7 of this Report and "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk" included in Part II, ITEM 7A of this Report for further discussion on the impact of foreign exchange rates on our operations.

Each year we invest significant time and resources in research and development to improve our product offerings and launch new products. In 2023, we launched our refreshed Stearns & Foster product line and a new line of Tempur mattresses internationally. We also launched a new portfolio of Tempur-Pedic Breeze mattresses and Tempur-Ergo Smart Bases in 2023. We expect to complete the multi-year refresh of Tempur-Pedic products in 2024 with a new portfolio of Tempur-Pedic Adapt mattresses and accessories in North America in 2024. This collection was designed to complement the Tempur-Pedic Breeze collection and Tempur-Ergo Smart Bases launched in 2023 and finishes the complete reset of our core Tempur lineup. There are a number of risks that are inherent in our new product line introductions, including that the anticipated level of market acceptance may not be realized, which could negatively impact our sales. Further, introduction costs and manufacturing inefficiencies may be greater than anticipated, while the rollout of the product could be delayed, each of which could impact profitability.

We rely on patents and trade secrets to protect the design, technology and function of our products. To date, we have not sought U.S. or international patent protection for our principal product formula for Tempur material and certain of our manufacturing processes. Accordingly, we may not be able to prevent others from developing certain visco-elastic material and products that are similar to or competitive with our products. Our ability to compete effectively with other companies also depends, to a significant extent, on our ability to maintain the proprietary nature of our owned and licensed intellectual property. We own a significant number of patents or have patent applications pending on some aspects of our products and certain manufacturing processes. However, the principal product formula and manufacturing processes for our Tempur material are not patented and we must maintain these as trade secrets in order to protect this intellectual property. We own U.S. and foreign registered trademarks and service marks and have applications for the registration of trademarks and service marks pending domestically and abroad. We also license certain intellectual property rights from third parties. Certain of our trademarks are currently registered in the U.S. and are registered or pending in foreign jurisdictions. Certain other trademarks are the subject of protection under common law. However, those rights could be circumvented, or violate the proprietary rights of others, or we could be prevented from using them if challenged. A challenge to our use of our trademarks could result in a negative ruling regarding our use of our trademarks, their validity or their enforceability, or could prove expensive and time consuming in terms of legal costs and time spent defending against such a challenge. Any loss of trademark protection could result in a decrease in sales or cause us to spend additional amounts on marketing, either of which could decrease our liquidity and profitability. In addition, if we incur significant costs defending our trademarks, that could also decrease our liquidity and profitability. In addition, we may not have the financial resources necessary to enforce or defend our trademarks. Furthermore, our patents may not provide meaningful protection and patents may never issue from pending applications. It is also possible that others could bring claims of infringement against us, as our principal product formula and manufacturing processes are not patented, and that any licenses protecting our intellectual property could be terminated. If we were unable to maintain the proprietary nature of our intellectual property and our significant current or proposed products, this loss of a competitive advantage could result in decreased sales or increased operating costs, either of which would decrease our liquidity and profitability. In addition, the laws of certain foreign countries may not protect our intellectual property rights and confidential information to the same extent as the laws of the U.S. or the EU. Third parties, including competitors, may assert intellectual property infringement or invalidity claims against us that could be upheld. Intellectual property litigation, which could result in substantial cost to and diversion of effort by us, may be necessary to protect our trade secrets or proprietary technology, or for us to defend against claimed infringement of the rights of others and to determine the scope and validity of others' proprietary rights. We may not prevail in any such litigation, and if we are unsuccessful, we may not be able to obtain any necessary licenses on reasonable terms or at all.

We rely on IT systems to operate and manage our business and to process, maintain and safeguard information essential to our business as well as information relating to third-parties, including our customers, suppliers and employees. These systems are vulnerable to events beyond our reasonable control, including cyberattacks and security breaches. Such events have resulted in and in the future could result in operational slowdowns, shutdowns or other difficulties; loss of sales, revenues or market share; compromise or loss of sensitive or proprietary information, including the misappropriation of our customers' or employees' personal information; destruction or corruption of data, including valuable business data; costs of remediation, upgrades, repair or recovery; breaches of obligations to third parties under privacy laws or contracts; exhaustion of insurance coverage and increased insurance premiums; fines or lawsuits; or other damage to our reputation or customer relationships; each of which, depending on the extent or duration of the event, could materially and adversely impact our business, operating results or financial condition. We have been, and may in the future be, subject to cybersecurity incidents. As these attacks increase and become more sophisticated, the risks associated with such an event continue to increase, particularly as our digital business footprint expands. Our security measures and internal controls are designed to protect personal data, business information, including intellectual property, and other confidential information, to prevent data loss, and to prevent or detect security breaches. However, such measures and controls do not provide absolute security in preventing these cybersecurity events from occurring, particularly given that techniques used to access, disable or degrade service, or sabotage systems change frequently. Moreover, we rely on third-party technology service providers in ordinary course operations of our Direct channel, such as website hosting, payment systems and digital advertising. Our third-party service providers may be victims to cybersecurity events from time to time, and failure to prevent, detect or remediate such events may disrupt our operations and could cause financial or reputational harm, including if insurance coverage is insufficient to cover all losses or all types of claims that may arise. As previously disclosed, we identified a cybersecurity event on July 23, 2023 affecting certain of our data and IT systems, which resulted in the temporary interruption of our operations when we proactively shut down certain of our systems. This cybersecurity event, as well as any other breach of our network or databases, or those of our third-party providers, have resulted and may in the future result in the risks discussed herein. Furthermore, we are subject to a constantly evolving regulatory landscape of laws and regulations relating to IT security and personal data protection and privacy, including but not limited to the EU's GDPR and the CCPA, each of which have imposed new and expanded compliance requirements on companies, including us, that process personal data from citizens living in applicable jurisdictions. Any failure to comply with applicable laws and regulations relating to data security and privacy, due to various factors within or outside of our control, could result in costly investigations from regulators and litigation, expose us to potentially significant penalties, and result in negative publicity that could damage our reputation and credibility.

We face an inherent business risk of exposure to product liability claims if the use of any of our products results in personal injury or property damage. In the event that any of our products prove to be defective or otherwise fail to meet safety standards, we may be required to recall, redesign or even discontinue those products. We maintain insurance against product liability claims, but such coverage may not continue to be available on terms acceptable to us or be adequate for liabilities actually incurred. A successful claim brought against us in excess of available insurance coverage could impair our liquidity and profitability, and any claim or product recall that results in significant adverse publicity against us could result in consumers purchasing fewer of our products, which would also impair our liquidity and profitability. We also face inherent business risks by operating physical stores that are open to the public. By opening retail stores, we have increased our exposure to premises liability claims. We maintain insurance against premises liability claims, but such coverage may not continue to be available on terms acceptable to us or be adequate for liabilities actually incurred. A successful claim brought against us in excess of available insurance coverage could impair our liquidity and profitability, and any claim or product recall that results in significant adverse publicity against us could adversely affect our reputation or result in consumers purchasing fewer of our products, which would also impair our liquidity and profitability.

Participants in the mattress and pillow industries compete primarily on price, quality, brand name recognition, product availability and product performance across a range of distribution channels. A number of our significant competitors offer mattress and pillow products that compete directly with our products. The effectiveness of our competition relative to our performance, including by established manufacturers or new entrants into the market, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and/or operating results. For example, market participants continue to improve their channels of distribution to optimize their reach to the consumer, including by pursuing online direct-to-consumer models. In addition, retailers in the U.S. and internationally have integrated vertically in the furniture and bedding industries, and it is possible that such vertical integration may provide conditions that would negatively impact our net sales and results of operations. The pillow industry in particular is characterized by a large number of competitors, none of which is dominant. As such, conditions that substantially increase a single participant's market share could be detrimental to our financial performance. The highly competitive nature of the mattress and pillow industries means we are continually subject to the risk of loss of market share, loss of significant customers, reductions in margins, and the inability to acquire new customers.

Our top five customers, collectively, accounted for approximately 32% of our net sales in 2023, and Mattress Firm contributed over 15%. If we are successful in closing the pending Mattress Firm acquisition, our significant customer concentration will be significantly reduced. There have been signs of deterioration in the U.S. retail sector, both nationally and regionally, including among our competitors. Some additional retailers that carry our products, as well as some of our competitors, may consolidate, undergo restructurings or reorganizations, may be acquired, experience financial difficulty or bankruptcy, or realign their affiliations, any of which could decrease the number of stores that carry our products, increase the ownership concentration in the retail industry or otherwise negatively impact the credit and retail environments in which we operate. An increase in the concentration of our sales to large customers may negatively affect our profitability due to the impact of volume and other incentive programs related to these customers. Furthermore, if sales to our large customers grow, our credit exposure to these customers may also increase. Some of these retailers may decide to carry only a limited number of brands of mattress products, which could affect our ability to sell products to them on favorable terms, if at all. A substantial decrease or interruption in business from these significant customers could result in the loss of future business and could reduce revenue, liquidity and profitability.

Certain of our retail pricing and promotional allowance policies or practices are subject to antitrust and consumer protection regulations in the U.S. and abroad. If regulators or private parties in any jurisdiction in which we do business initiate investigations or claims that challenge our pricing or promotional allowance policies or practices, our efforts to respond could force us to divert management resources and we could incur significant unanticipated costs. If such an investigation or claim were to result in a charge that our practices or policies were in violation of applicable antitrust, consumer protection or other laws or regulations, we could be subject to significant additional costs of defending such charges in a variety of venues and, ultimately, if there were a finding that we were in violation of antitrust, consumer protection or other laws or regulations, there could be an imposition of fines, and damages for persons injured, as well as injunctive or other relief. Any requirement that we pay fines or damages (which, under the laws of certain jurisdictions, may be trebled) could decrease our liquidity and profitability, and any investigation or claim that requires significant management attention or causes us to change our business practices could disrupt our operations or increase our costs, also resulting in a decrease in our liquidity and profitability. An antitrust or consumer protection class action or individual suit against us could result in potential liabilities, substantial costs, treble damages, and the diversion of our management's attention and resources, regardless of the outcome.